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Bob Chill

March 20-21 Short Range Model Analysis

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3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

We are entering into the normal weenie panic phase.  This is where I check out for a bit.

I gotta try and get to sleep early and not keep watching radar blossom to the SW. Qpf between now and 2am is like .05-.2 tops through the region. But the rebirth will be clearly in sight by 10pm or so... I don't drink anymore so I can't go there.... got any dank ideas?

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1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

lol, I decided to check the HDRPS...yall are a trip.  It's a shellacking.  

Went from 18” of fake snow to 13”. STORM CANCEL

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4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I gotta try and get to sleep early and not keep watching radar blossom to the SW. Qpf between now and 2am is like .05-.2 tops through the region. But the rebirth will be clearly in sight by 10pm or so... I don't drink anymore so I can't go there.... got any dank ideas?

Heavy heavy coffeve?

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I'm watching my ground truth vs the Euro output. Right now I've got about 1". Euro says I should have 2-3" by 6:00. That's probably not happening.
 
My next look will be at midnight, where it says I should have 5. If I miss both of those marks by midnight tonight, then yeah, I'm not really going to trust the Euro snow maps, even Kuchera, for this event.
Wow I've got a dusting. White on grass very little on driveway

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13 minutes ago, Amped said:

HRDPS says it snows until at least 00z Thursday wow.

Have a gander at that band over the bay and shore from 24-28.  WOW.

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Jesus. Why is everyone hugging QPF on models so much. All anyone should be looking at is radar temp and pressure OBS,  and using models only to look at things upstairs. Forget the surface output differences... oy

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1 minute ago, Kmlwx said:

If you are on here posting about "the rug being pulled" you may need to step back from the computer and go take a nap or something. The models look fine. 

Yeah virtually every model shows a classic look for mid Atlantic snow, whether or not any area gets the primo bands and big totals is unknowable but the euro says we all have a shot. 

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5 minutes ago, jayyy said:

Jesus. Why is everyone hugging QPF on models so much. All anyone should be looking at is radar temp and pressure OBS,  and using models only to look at things upstairs. Forget the surface output differences... oy

You are right! This is a very dynamic system. Atmospherics that evolve later tonight and tomorrow will determine who gets what.

I will simplify the equation by predicting that 0 - 500 ft elevation receives 1-5 inches, 500 - 1500 elevation receives 3 - 7 inches, 1500 -4000 ft. rerceives 6 - 15 inches. 

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7 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

If you are on here posting about "the rug being pulled" you may need to step back from the computer and go take a nap or something. The models look fine. 

I had a Ji moment. It just seems like we haven't had a legit snow storm in forever and the last time we did, we were modeled to get 2-3 feet of snow for a week straight and there was no waver. I miss that LOL.

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21 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

You can find the herpyderpy on tropical tidbits under mesoscale

Make sure you scroll down, as the two Canadians are kinda hidden at the bottom.

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32 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I gotta try and get to sleep early and not keep watching radar blossom to the SW. Qpf between now and 2am is like .05-.2 tops through the region. But the rebirth will be clearly in sight by 10pm or so... I don't drink anymore so I can't go there.... got any dank ideas?

I'll be prepared for my jebwalks...  

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Why does anyone care about the GFS.  There will be the typical banding west/northwest of DC.  The fact that the GFS is incapable of sussing that out isn't our problem

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1 minute ago, nj2va said:

Time to close this? 

Nah, we're still going to sweat until the 0z suite is done. There's not a person here who truly doesn't care about the 0z runs. lol

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18 minutes ago, B-Paq said:

Make sure you scroll down, as the two Canadians are kinda hidden at the bottom.

Nevermind, got it, thanks.

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10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Nah, we're still going to sweat until the 0z suite is done. There's not a person here who truly doesn't care about the 0z runs. lol

Indeed.  Hopefully, they will come in looking good enough to end some of this despondent (and frankly, awful at times) commentary!  I think some people ignore the fact that the totals showing up from 18Z do not include what was to have fallen today (and which showed up in the earlier 06/12Z runs).  That, and the precise location of the heaviest bands/precip isn't going to be fully known at this point and has oscillated back and forth.

Regardless, tomorrow should be a lot of fun for the entire region!  One topic not discussed much are the brisk winds expected through the evening (though Bob, I think you did say something about it not long ago)...that might add another interesting wrinkle here.

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3 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

It can't see it. It won't let me scroll that far.

You should have a narrow gray vertical bar to between the Mesoscale column and the forecast hour columns. 

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