ErinInTheSky Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 6"+ through the cities in 14/20 runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 I think E18 would be a godsend to this entire forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 4 minutes ago, supernovasky said: Lol. It does, sorry. I'm really hoping I can cash in on being at 500' and catch the right end of a marginal temp event. I think you will, especially when a better winter arrives, and maybe with this storm. I live at around 600' and I've lost count of the number of times mappy was surprised at my total even though her work place is just a few miles from my backyard (but also around 300' or so). A small difference like that can matter a lot in a marginal event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 So right now, we've got the GEFS + EPS + Euro on one side (great for the cities, great for everyone involved), but the operational GFS is being dang stubborn. NAM is being NAM. I have to think our chances are good and that the NWS/Cap Weather Gang are underselling it, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Your area is pretty densely developed so all that asphalt and concrete does make a difference but with that being said there is no doubt over time that gburg does better than my yard. Unfortunately you moved just at the beginning of a really crappy stretch. If you were here in 13-15 winters there would have been a noticeable difference compared to rockville, Bethesda, silver spring, etc. Olney is pretty far removed from development and it really helps. It keeps getting better as you drive north on 97. Damascus is a jackpotville of MoCo. I worked in mt airy for 5 years and that 30 miles made a massive difference. I was working there during 12/5/09 and damn I'm glad I was. Double what I had at home. I watched the snow depth drop every like every mile south. If it makes you feel any better, you'll prob do better than me this week. Lol Rt 27 is pretty incredible, along with MD 108 in this regard as well. It's a stark difference at times from Germantown to where I live, and really gets interesting as you head north to Damascus. That run from Laytonsville on 124 to Damascus and up 27 to Mt Airy is special in marginal events. You can see the snowfall on ground increase like you mentioned. Two April's ago, there was a very borderline event in the area and I watched the rain change to snow as I was driving to GF's house. Temp drop like 2-3 degrees over a few miles. This area is extremely unique for micro climates and this is a system where this will be put to the test. I can see areas NW of Rockville start out as sleet/rain briefly, then change to all sleet before shifting to snow. How fast is key to potential accumulation. I really like Carroll, Northern Baltimore Co. and areas west out to WV in this one for best chance at jackpot. Westminster is probably in a solid spot this go around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 4 minutes ago, supernovasky said: I think E18 would be a godsend to this entire forum. E18 as paste would be amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 Just now, supernovasky said: So right now, we've got the GEFS + EPS + Euro on one side (great for the cities, great for everyone involved), but the operational GFS is being dang stubborn. NAM is being NAM. I have to think our chances are good and that the NWS/Cap Weather Gang are underselling it, right? We've got a huge factor that's not on our side, and that is climo. I think that's why the forecasters are skeptical at this point, and it's completely understandable. But with time there will be watches and warnings if these trends start to lock in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 1 minute ago, Fozz said: We've got a huge factor that's not on our side, and that is climo. I think that's why the forecasters are skeptical at this point, and it's completely understandable. But with time there will be watches and warnings if these trends start to lock in. Good point. It’s hard to bet against climo this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 I wouldn't read into the GEFS too much. Lower resolution is far inferior to the op with marginal temps. We're inside of the useful range at this point. The GEFS is very supportive of the ops qpf distribution so that piece of the puzzle is locking in good. But with marginal temps for at least part of the storm, those gefs members are no doubt too aggressive in general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 Really hope we see the trend continue with wave 2. Tue eve/night could be a show if trends continue to be stronger and closer to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 Pretty decent odds at this range: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 10 minutes ago, supernovasky said: So right now, we've got the GEFS + EPS + Euro on one side (great for the cities, great for everyone involved), but the operational GFS is being dang stubborn. NAM is being NAM. I have to think our chances are good and that the NWS/Cap Weather Gang are underselling it, right? I wouldn’t say underselling it, I would say being prudent given the time of year, complex set up, and marginal temps around the metro areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 These points can never be overlooked when comparing 10:1 snow maps: It's going to rain first for quite a large portion of our sub Temps will be above freezing leading into and at least part of the storm for most of our region so early snow will not stick Meso and global soundings are showing a warm nose until after the low gets east of us DGZ won't be optimal until after the low pressure is to our east Omegas in the DGZ aren't looking all that great in general Anyone thinking 10:1 even if it's all snow at their house is grossly overestimating how much will accumulate and this includes the northern tier. The wildcard is wave 2. IF there is a legit CCB/deform area then ratios could actually be above 10:1 but that piece of the puzzle is still very uncertain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 surprise. I think it will trend more to NAM, not GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 7 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: surprise. I think it will trend more to NAM, not GFS Which NAM? Which model run? Quite a range of options with 12z and 18z alone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 26 minutes ago, Fozz said: We've got a huge factor that's not on our side, and that is climo. I think that's why the forecasters are skeptical at this point, and it's completely understandable. But with time there will be watches and warnings if these trends start to lock in. The High Rez NAM (18Z) shows our area flipping to snow at hour 40 for five hours and then mixing. The second impulse shows another period of snow for 3 to 5 hours and then another mix. It seems that "the warm nose" is going to return twice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 22 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Pretty decent odds at this range: When is the last time we've been the highest odds for accumulation? I sure can't remember. It sure beats praying the .10" contour can shift west 20 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 3 minutes ago, winterymix said: The High Rez NAM (18Z) shows our area flipping to snow at hour 40 for five hours and then mixing. The second impulse shows another period of snow for 3 to 5 hours and then another mix. It seems that "the warm nose" is going to return twice. I thought about that but I'm skeptical. The whole event is morphing into a more cohesive evolution. My guess is that any "second" warm nose will only be around during light precipitation when it won't matter much anyways. If we don't get much of a lull then everyone but SE of town is probably good once they flip to snow. I will say that I thought the euro temps were too aggressive on the cold side but even the 3k drops the surface for most areas below freezing before 18z. Which is counter-intuitive because temps at sunrise are above freezing everywhere. This is very unsual for a mid day march storm. The HP pressing down couldn't be more perfect honestly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 hour ago, yoda said: https://mobile.twitter.com/SteveRudinABC7/status/975474404896460801 I would be shocked to wake up to a watch for anyone east of I-81. Too marginal of an event. Probably advisory by noon and maybe we get lucky and an upgrade to a warning last minute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: I would be shocked to wake up to a watch for anyone east of I-81. Too marginal of an event. Probably advisory by noon and maybe we get lucky and an upgrade to a warning last minute. I mean...isn't that the whole point of a *watch* - to show POTENTIAL? We've seen them plenty of times go with a watch and then go to advisory once trends are clear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I thought about that but I'm skeptical. The whole event is morphing into a more cohesive evolution. My guess is that any "second" warm nose will only be around during light precipitation when it won't matter much anyways. If we don't get much of a lull then everyone but SE of town is probably good once they flip to snow. I will say that I thought the euro temps were too aggressive on the cold side but even the 3k drops the surface for most areas below freezing before 18z. Which is counter-intuitive because temps at sunrise are above freezing everywhere. This is very unsual for a mid day march storm. The HP pressing down couldn't be more perfect honestly. And it is about time. For two years we have had LP's over the lakes during our events. It is refreshing to finally have a good setup. I wish we could have had this setup in January or February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 2 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: I mean...isn't that the whole point of a *watch* - to show POTENTIAL? We've seen them plenty of times go with a watch and then go to advisory once trends are clear. Has to be at least a 50% (60%?) confidence level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 17 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I thought about that but I'm skeptical. The whole event is morphing into a more cohesive evolution. My guess is that any "second" warm nose will only be around during light precipitation when it won't matter much anyways. If we don't get much of a lull then everyone but SE of town is probably good once they flip to snow. I will say that I thought the euro temps were too aggressive on the cold side but even the 3k drops the surface for most areas below freezing before 18z. Which is counter-intuitive because temps at sunrise are above freezing everywhere. This is very unsual for a mid day march storm. The HP pressing down couldn't be more perfect honestly. Interesting that the 3k NAM is one of the coldest at the surface, but also has the strongest warm nose. I wouldn't be surprised if both get muted a bit in the next 2-3 runs. If Euro keeps the thermals looking like 12z today over the next 2 runs and the 3k also holds firm, that will be an interesting forecast decision come tomorrow afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 11 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Has to be at least a 50% (60%?) confidence level. Not sure if this has changed because of the Weather Ready Nation Initiative but this is one description of the difference in categories. Outlook - Winter weather that may cause significant impact in the day 3 to 7 forecast time period and eventually lead to the issuance of a watch or warning is contained in the Hazardous Weather Outlook. More scientific discussion on the event can also be found in the Area Forecast Discussion. Forecasts in the day 3 to 7 time period typically have a lot of forecast uncertainty. Uncertainty is generally in the 30 to 50% range that the event will occur and reach warning criteria. It is intended to provide information to those who need considerable lead time to prepare for the event. Watch - A watch is generally issued in the 24 to 72 hour forecast time frame when the risk of a hazardous winter weather event has increased (50 to 80% certainty that warning thresholds will be met). It is intended to provide enough lead time so those who need to set their plans in motion can do so. A watch is issued using the WSW Winter Weather Message product and will appear as a headline in some text products such as the Zone Forecast. It will change the color, as shown in the table below, of the counties on the NWS front page map according to what type of watch has been issued. Warning - These products are issued when a hazardous winter weather event is occurring, is imminent, or has a very high probability of occurrence (generally greater than 80%). A warning is used for conditions posing a threat to life or property. Warnings are issued using the WSW Winter Weather Message product and will appear as a headline in some text products such as the Zone Forecast. It will change the color, as shown in the table below, of the counties on the NWS front page map according to what type of warning/advisory has been issued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 28 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I thought about that but I'm skeptical. The whole event is morphing into a more cohesive evolution. My guess is that any "second" warm nose will only be around during light precipitation when it won't matter much anyways. If we don't get much of a lull then everyone but SE of town is probably good once they flip to snow. I will say that I thought the euro temps were too aggressive on the cold side but even the 3k drops the surface for most areas below freezing before 18z. Which is counter-intuitive because temps at sunrise are above freezing everywhere. This is very unsual for a mid day march storm. The HP pressing down couldn't be more perfect honestly. 9 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Interesting that the 3k NAM is one of the coldest at the surface, but also has the strongest warm nose. I wouldn't be surprised if both get muted a bit in the next 2-3 runs. If Euro keeps the thermals looking like 12z today over the next 2 runs and the 3k also holds firm, that will be an interesting forecast decision come tomorrow afternoon. I realize that forecast soundings are only as good as the underlying model. Attached below is the 18Z GFS sounding for Tuesday afternoon, IAD. The next 3 hour period shows the column as frozen. Until then it seems that precipitation should be some sort of a mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Updated lwx map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chase Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 LWX just upped their totals at 8:25. Slow and steady. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Can anyone tell me the difference between the CMC RDPs and GDPS on meteocentre ? Is one the extended version of the other? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 minute ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Updated lwx map More in Frederick than Hagerstown?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 That map looks about right to me. I still think we get more than that in my neck of the woods but it seems about where I'd place the forecast myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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