stormtracker Posted March 19, 2018 Author Share Posted March 19, 2018 NAM doing it, but thermals not ideal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plow'n Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Just now, MD Snow said: That's a ton of sleet through 54 hrs on the 12k for the cities. Sleet tends to cool the paved surfaces faster and provide a good base for snow, i like it especially for the first wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 19, 2018 Author Share Posted March 19, 2018 I mean, it's a 989 right on VA beach...we gotta just take our chances with something like that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 2 minutes ago, MD Snow said: That's a ton of sleet through 54 hrs on the 12k for the cities. It did that 18z too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Just now, Plow'n said: Sleet tends to cool the paved surfaces faster and provide a good base for snow, i like it especially for the first wave I mean, snow depth map goes up 1" during this time, so I'm assuming it would be heavy sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 12K NAM is awful. I don't know why people even reference it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 I like how surface temps are colder than 850s lol like what. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Sometimes I forget that the NAM rolls out by way of messenger pigeon carrying data to a scribe. Slowwwwww Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Just now, TSSN+ said: I like how surface temps are colder than 850s lol like what. That happens all the time dude. Please stop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 3 minutes ago, Plow'n said: Sleet tends to cool the paved surfaces faster and provide a good base for snow, i like it especially for the first wave Hadn't thought of that! In that case...I don't mind sleet to start (as long as wave 2 crushes in some capacity, lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Still closed h5 in SW VA and NC at 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Just now, Bob Chill said: That happens all the time dude. Please stop. Not really for a storm like this. March you usually getting colder 850s and warm surface. I never seen a March ice storm before haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 NAM gets almost no north of Wilmington FEB 2010 cutoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Just now, TSSN+ said: Not really for a storm like this. March you usually getting colder 850s and warm surface. I never seen a March ice storm before haha We just had 1 a year ago. Now a daytime March ice storm would be a first Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Question: Is the SLP out in WV not allowing upper levels to crash once the coastal goes boom at hr 60? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Sometimes you have to just roll with what you know. 988 low off ORF with closed low riding NC/VA border and 1030 HP in Ontario = good things for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 I don't trust the nam basically ever but this is acceptable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 6 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: I like how surface temps are colder than 850s lol like what. It's because the 850 primary is still going strong out in KY/wv until hr57-60 so the flow is out of the SE pumping warm air in at the 850 level. Temps crash after once the transfer finishes and everything crashes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: I like how surface temps are colder than 850s lol like what. What?...... That's extremely common. Have you never heard of warm air aloft? Warm layers? Are you new at this? If you have no idea what you're spewing out - let the folks like Bob Chill take the pbp and post less please. This is storm mode... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Just now, TSSN+ said: Not really for a storm like this. March you usually getting colder 850s and warm surface. I never seen a March ice storm before haha A ton of sleet has fallen which is probably cooling the surface..a ton in NoVA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 19, 2018 Author Share Posted March 19, 2018 lol..the NAM panel at 63 is a groin kicker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Heavy precip between hrs 57 and 66. Roll the dice on heavy sleet or heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 19, 2018 Author Share Posted March 19, 2018 Just now, Bob Chill said: I don't trust the nam basically ever but this is acceptable That surface panel at 63 tho...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 WOW. 63 is a mauling out this way. This run is SOOOO close to a huge event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 3 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Not really for a storm like this. March you usually getting colder 850s and warm surface. I never seen a March ice storm before haha We just had a sleet storm last March and March 93 was one of the worst sleet storms for many. They can happen at any month in winter. A storm like this is an easy way to get sleet. We don't have a pressing arctic high and temps are marginal to start. Tuck a strong low near mouth of bay and 850 temp advection can reach back to the Blue Ridge. This is a legit concern for this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Not really for a storm like this. March you usually getting colder 850s and warm surface. I never seen a March ice storm before haha Dude we just got a 3 inch sleet storm last March. And an ice event in 2015. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 minute ago, Kmlwx said: What?...... That's extremely common. Have you never heard of warm air aloft? Warm layers? Are you new at this? If you have no idea what you're spewing out - let the folks like Bob Chill take the pbp and post less please. This is storm mode... It’s the only model showing the opposite right now what I mean. Most models have cold enough 850 but warmer surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Just now, Always in Zugzwang said: Dude we just got a 3 inch sleet storm last March. And an ice event in 2015. Sleet yes freezing rain not so much. It’s going to be a close call. Pretty much one big mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 congrats Williamsburg VA. Although I've never seen a sim radar like that loop in real life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 What? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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