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Median to above confidence for moderate (major?) impact event, midweek


Typhoon Tip

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3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

That look would cook essex county cept Maybe methuen, no?

Yeah it's tough on Essex....like 495 is dividing line up in N Essex...but then it becomes 128 a littl further south because Ray does well on RGEM.

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

You'll be fine...even in the 12z NAM scenario you are still mostly snow....though admittedly close to a lot less. But I doubt the 12z NAM takes this all the way into the endzone....it's going to give some back IMHO.

Thanks, might be worth riding the line. Definitely would've been toast at my old place in Brookline no question there.

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2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Another Flip phone

I'm really liking these west tracks, Riding out of Eustis this weekend to Jackman, and again next weekend too, Rather maximize the returns there and the ski areas, The more the better up there, No use for it down this way now, Were done as its been to warm, Lost the base, And a lot of brooks and bogs are opened up on our trail system so doesn't matter how much snow we receive, Its not rideable.

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8 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

lol. 
Tensions are high.  People are stealing other people's snow...Philly cops have been hired to grease bridge railings and poles all over Eastern SNE to keep depressed snow weenies from climbing them...and yet we wait...We wait for an absolution.  One that may never come nor satisfy. 

The CT peeps are at complaining about either 12" or 18" at this point.  :lol:

 

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1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

I don't care if I see 0", 12" or 2" of rain.  It's a storm and it's gonna do whatever the hell it wants.  All I can do is interject my opinion on what a model shows.  There is no emotion in that.

Careful, Some may look at this as a melt.

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1 minute ago, CT Rain said:

Seems like the key is what is the evolution of the 500-700 low. How compact or how stretched? I do think there are legit dry slot concerns with mid level lows heading over NYC

The stretching of the midlevels also slows the storm down....so it's doubly important for amounts. The more robust circular midlevels that track further west are going to make this mostly a 6-10 hour storm....while the elongated ones could double the amount of time for steady snow.

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This storm reminds me of that Feb 2014 storm where the lift came in, and areas like Taunton up through jerry's old  hood flipped to parachutes and got a quick 4" in two hours. Once that went by, it went back to rain. I could see that in borderline areas. You may start as RASN, flip to paste for a few to several hours before going to rain again. The RGEM kind of shows this.

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

The stretching of the midlevels also slows the storm down....so it's doubly important for amounts. The more robust circular midlevels that track further west are going to make this mostly a 6-10 hour storm....while the elongated ones could double the amount of time for steady snow.

exactly

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Just now, Cyclone-68 said:

I hope this works out for the eastern SNE folks. I’d hate to have the next exciting weather event become a “see text” in mid June 

There is more in the pipeline just in the next 10 days before moving on to June............lol

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