Median to above confidence for moderate (major?) impact event, midweek

[WintersComing]

So many EC members are snowy in ern areas. I would love for the EC to give the GFS one big massive steaming dump on the face.

I’m betting the gfs comes back east at 12 z.


.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

So many EC members are snowy in ern areas. I would love for the EC to give the GFS one big massive steaming dump on the face.

You just can’t get poop out of your mind.

I’d weigh towards them, though. 

[JC-CT]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

So many EC members are snowy in ern areas. I would love for the EC to give the GFS one big massive steaming dump on the face.

That's hot

[Ginx snewx]

52 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I’ll stick with the EPS/ Euro / Ukie/ Reggie suite thanks 

i don't see a problem with this? Whats Ryan thinking? Bob went huge

[Spanks45]

21 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Holy moly, take em off!

If I somehow manage to not changeover at the height of this storm, this are could do extremely well. That hires rgem is incredible!

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

We are still cautiously optmistic for wct and wma. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

If I somehow manage to not changeover at the height of this storm, this are could do extremely well. That hires rgem is incredible!

I cannt see a scenario we rain but I can see sleet for a bit. That’s the worst case.

[Johnno]

9 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

i don't see a problem with this? Whats Ryan thinking? Bob went huge

Man that’s nudity here if that verifies, we can go straight to Morch after that

[moneypitmike]

39 minutes ago, tamarack said:

From GYX morning AFD:

With mid level
low tracks in this area...parts of Srn NH and coastal Wrn ME are
favored for a potentially major snowfall. Increasing
frontogenesis will already be ramping up the forcing for ascent
Wed afternoon...but as the mid level lows deepen deformation
will be increasing along and NW of their path. This will likely
lead to some intense banding for interior parts of New England.
The best combination of Atlantic inflow...upper dynamics...and
QPF favors Srn NH for the highest snowfall totals.

06 GFS pounds the ASH-PSM-SFM region with 2-2.5" qpf.  50 miles north and it's an inch less.  (Still enough for double digits)

Yeah--a very different look for Maine.

[Spanks45]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I cannt see a scenario we rain but I can see sleet for a bit. That’s the worst case.

I only have a few years experience in this area, but I have experienced a change over more times than not. I know every storm is different, but it just seems to warm here, even when a majority of models keep it all snow/frozen. My hometown of Lancaster PA is basically split on all guidance right now, almost split through the county. Many years of heartbreak living there in this type of storm tells me which way to lean....

[Buddy1987]

12z NAM at hr 12 is just a tick stronger with the canadian s/w. Other than that, not much difference thus far. Early in the run obv.

[Baroclinic Zone]

1 hour ago, JC-CT said:

GFS is like 20 miles west at most of other guidance. 

The EPS and GEFS are light years apart right now.

[dryslot]

24 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

So many EC members are snowy in ern areas. I would love for the EC to give the GFS one big massive steaming dump on the face.

[Damage In Tolland]

15 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

i don't see a problem with this? Whats Ryan thinking? Bob went huge

Keeping big amounts. 

[Buddy1987]

Less positively tilted at hr 18. QPF responding and shifting just a tad west so far. This looks to be a good run in the making once again. Uber amounts of precip loading up in the Delmarva.

Edit: Can already tell at hr 20 that some eastern guys may not be too happy with the 12z NAM. Looking like its def going to tuck once again. 

[JC-CT]

4 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

The EPS and GEFS are light years apart right now.

Yeah I agree, was referring to OP GFS specifically. GEFS are an outlier.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

9 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

I only have a few years experience in this area, but I have experienced a change over more times than not. I know every storm is different, but it just seems to warm here, even when a majority of models keep it all snow/frozen. My hometown of Lancaster PA is basically split on all guidance right now, almost split through the county. Many years of heartbreak living there in this type of storm tells me which way to lean....

You’ll be fine. Just hop on my back, I’ll carry you. 

[Buddy1987]

Bottom of the trough not nearly as sluggish this go around. Going to be more amped for sure at 24.

[J Paul Gordon]

Are the NWS snowfall maps over the top? They seem to be on the high end of things....not that I don't hope they are right!

 

[TalcottWx]

33 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

So many EC members are snowy in ern areas. I would love for the EC to give the GFS one big massive steaming dump on the face.

More often than not

[DFRI]

Box just posted this on Twitter.

[WintersComing]

Very interesting double low at hr 27 with primary further east

[JC-CT]

Much more expansive qpf field at hour 29 vs 6z 35.

[TalcottWx]

27 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

i don't see a problem with this? Whats Ryan thinking? Bob went huge

God that is horrific 

[Buddy1987]

Just now, JC-CT said:

Much more expansive qpf field at hour 29 vs 6z 35.

Makes sense man, considering the origins of the moisture. Gonna be a crazy run upcoming.

[TalcottWx]

26 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

We are still cautiously optmistic for wct and wma. 

Massive eye roll. Mid levels smoke you. I'm riding the Tobin rain snow line according to many models. Wanna trade? 

[DFRI]

[WintersComing]

Crush job at hr 30 on regular NAM

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Absolute mayhem!

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, sbos_wx said:

Massive eye roll. Mid levels smoke you. I'm riding the Tobin rain snow line according to many models. Wanna trade? 

Yea, was talking about approaching hecs levels here. I think theres a chance.