Median to above confidence for moderate (major?) impact event, midweek

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Why would anyone be using the GEFS less than 24 hours out?

I would explain it to you but I don't think you would listen. 

[JC-CT]

Just now, moneypitmike said:

Posting and using are different things.  That's why people post NAM outputs.

When ensembles are significantly further WEST than the OP this close in, I take notice. 

[moneypitmike]

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

When ensembles are significantly further WEST than the OP this close in, I take notice. 

see the rest of my post.

[snowman21]

3 hours ago, ice1972 said:

Darren at NBC CT in HFD indicating the 8-14in NW CT may be low......we pray

They also have this storm in and out of here pretty quickly... in around midday, winding down by 8 or 9 PM.

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

When ensembles are significantly further WEST than the OP this close in, I take notice. 

On an inferior model?

[CoastalWx]

After Dryslot's meltdown yesterday, he looks to do well. 

[JC-CT]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

On an inferior model?

Inferior to what

[JC-CT]

It's just a flag kev. That's all for now 

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Inferior to what

Everything except the nam 

[JC-CT]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Everything except the nam 

Lol. I dare you to make a 5 day forecast based solely on the GGEM and post it on twitter.

[CT Rain]

Kevin’s on the verge of a meltdown after the 6z runs. Slot risk for Tolland!

[JC-CT]

Just now, CT Rain said:

Kevin’s on the verge of a meltdown after the 6z runs. Slot risk for Tolland!

Mid level deform for weha?

[Hoth]

Lol Euro has like 200-350 joules of CAPE off the coast and into CNJ tomorrow. Love the convective appeal with high lapse rates and insane omega. If I had to guess the jack zones, I'd have one up through western CT into MPM land, where I suspect there will be some strong fronto, and another from Tolland through ORH, SE NH and coastal Maine, especially if the system slows/stalls for a time. I also think this will surprise in the QPF department. Still reminds me of Jan '11, which was generally forecast as a quick 15-20" type deal that ended up with a lot of 2 foot reports and a jack around 40" in the Berks. Snow will be wetter than that one, but could still see a few 24" reports happening. Whatever, gonna be a fun couple days! Enjoy folks!

[MarkO]

 I'm quite surprised not many are concerned inside i95 given this winters performance. I think Harvy going conservative is appropriate. 4-6" inside 128. 

[SnowGoose69]

I’ll go out on a limb and say the Euro isn’t going to have this big of a fail again this close in.  I think it’s too far east but my hunch is it’ll end up verifting better than any other model 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You pretty much have to go 12-20” from CT River east  and north . 

You pretty much have to go 12-20 from CT river WEST and north.....also.

[JC-CT]

2 minutes ago, MarkO said:

 I'm quite surprised not many are concerned inside i95 given this winters performance. I think Harvy going conservative is appropriate. 4-6" inside 128. 

Not sure who you are referring to, most have a very sharp gradient

[mahk_webstah]

4 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Lol Euro has like 200-350 joules of CAPE off the coast and into CNJ tomorrow. Love the convective appeal with high lapse rates and insane omega. If I had to guess the jack zones, I'd have one up through western CT into MPM land, where I suspect there will be some strong fronto, and another from Tolland through ORH, SE NH and coastal Maine, especially if the system slows/stalls for a time. I also think this will surprise in the QPF department. Still reminds me of Jan '11, which was generally forecast as a quick 15-20" type deal that ended up with a lot of 2 foot reports and a jack around 40" in the Berks. Snow will be wetter than that one, but could still see a few 24" reports happening. Whatever, gonna be a fun couple days! Enjoy folks!

I agree.  I've been on the 30 lollies for a couple days.  Why?  multi day signal for around 2" qpf, slow mover, banding and higher ratio CCB snow late in the storm...and then as an added bonus, a few inches of fluff on Thursday.  A general 1-2 footer across most of New England with lollies to 30 in some western deform areas and from north of ORH, Monads over to SE NH and SW ME.

[codfishsnowman]

10 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Kevin’s on the verge of a meltdown after the 6z runs. Slot risk for Tolland!

well they are really big changes for a lot of us...i hope it is just a "burp" run but they very well may be seeing something they did not see yesterday

furthermore if this thing is now speeding up...what is with these models at some point showing stall this and capture that....seems we go through this with every storm

right now this is 3-6 slop with rain ending as flurries/sprinkles if the 6z gfs is correct with big snows far n/nw

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

You pretty much have to go 12-20 from CT river WEST and north.

Euro gets 0 weight?

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, codfishsnowman said:

well they are really big changes for a lot of us...i hope it is just a "burp" run but they very well may be seeing something they did not see yesterday

furthermore if this thing is now speeding up...what is with these models at some point showing still this and capture that....seems we go through this with every storm

right now this is 3-6 slop with rain ending as flurries/sprinkles if the 6z gfs is correct with big snows far n/nw

What are you talking about 

[codfishsnowman]

Just now, JC-CT said:

What are you talking about 

6z gfs/gefs.......that tucked in of solutions its game over...esp with this relatively marginal air mass

[JC-CT]

4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I’ll go out on a limb and say the Euro isn’t going to have this big of a fail again this close in.  I think it’s too far east but my hunch is it’ll end up verifting better than any other model 

The euro and nam tracks aren't that far off. GEFS seems the big outlier right now, so no reason to go crazy.

[WintersComing]

Uggh. Hate to see Ryan’s station fall into the windshield wiper effect. Just cut their totals


.

[JC-CT]

Just now, codfishsnowman said:

6z gfs/gefs.......that tucked in of solutions its game over...esp with this relatively marginal air mass

GFS is like 20 miles west at most of other guidance. 

[jbenedet]

25 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

When ensembles are significantly further WEST than the OP this close in, I take notice. 

My take is the track inland towards ACY makes sense, but GFS beyond that point is  questionable. I think the euro handling of the kick east is superior. Basically the track I put out yesterday afternoon is a 50/50 blend of the 6z GFS and the 0z Euro, and that’s what I still think will verify. 

6z GFS is also weakest solution so it’s a worst case scenario for the subforum. I think it’s OTL intensity wise. 

[JC-CT]

Some painful analysis this morning.

Dude, NBC didn't cut back. They sharpened the gradient on both sides. I agree with that call.

[codfishsnowman]

2 minutes ago, WintersComing said:

Uggh. Hate to see Ryan’s station fall into the windshield wiper effect. Just cut their totals


.

the fact that models cannot agree on the sensible impacts 24 hrs b4 go time is unnerving...i suppose it is not as bad as last weeks storm but still.....this isnt about stupid gfs thermals....its a track issue diff between just inside bm or over se ct/ri is like 100 mi lol

[CT Rain]

5 minutes ago, WintersComing said:

Uggh. Hate to see Ryan’s station fall into the windshield wiper effect. Just cut their totals


.

We did?

[HIPPYVALLEY]

10 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

You pretty much have to go 12-20 from CT river WEST and north.....also.

We've earned this.