Median to above confidence for moderate (major?) impact event, midweek

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Matches other guidance better now....has a 2.2 inch max over a swath of interior E MA near Ray and a secondary jack out west.

 

 

The maps are funny because GFS and often most models fail to accurately read the topography in W MA and have massive "shadowing" qpf reductions that are overdone.  It's sometimes true with E/NE winds creating down slopping but usually overdone.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Why are people saying its a toaster for E MA? Jesus..its 20" instead of 30"?

They are looking at the sfc temps.

 

Tossed.

[Ginx snewx]

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You are the last person I'd accuse of a jp fetish.

He will love the RGEM

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

They are looking at the sfc temps.

 

Tossed.

I wonder how much those faux BL temps affect other variables over time like PWATs, QPF, theta-e etc....

[HIPPYVALLEY]

8 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Every model crushes you. What exactly do you not believe?

Always on guard for the E shifts or valley down slopping effects.   I agree though, this looks pretty awesome out here with the mid-levels and lift.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Why are people saying its a toaster for E MA? Jesus..its 20" instead of 30"?

Surface maps ftl.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

6 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Every model crushes you. What exactly do you not believe?

 you are the last person that should accuse somebody of leaning Debbie Downer.  lol

[MarkO]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

They are looking at the sfc temps.

 

Tossed.

GFS sounding has me at 39/35 @06Z, do I think that will happen under 35dbz returns not really, but I'd be concerned inside 128

[Ginx snewx]

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I wonder how much those faux BL temps affect other variables over time like PWATs, QPF, theta-e etc....

Exactly it's a POS I'd rate it behind the NAM and ICON this winter

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I wonder how much those faux BL temps affect other variables over time like PWATs, QPF, theta-e etc....

You'd think it would be a feedback loop in the wrong direction for any ageostrophic CAD effects....if it's keeping it warm at the sfc, it's going to mix down the winds aloft better putting them more geostrophic, thus, allowing even more warming from the east....and that would def have to affect some other varaibles too as you hypothesize.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

All things looking pretty good right now.  Hopefully wake up to see the Euro with a full capture and stall.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

8 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Is essex county not  rain to LWM for first half of gfs storm, not talking thermals, just BL wind direction , less than ideal high orientation 

You chasing in the Berkshires or crashing at Dryslot's? 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

3 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

You chasing in the berkshires crashing at Dryslot's?

3k nam looks like hunter mtn redux

But im not quite cool w being charged 200$ Weekend rate when there was no power fri am to checkout sat.

Im staying put unless this goes up and in w early phase

Next Monday/Tuesday thou i would go

Back to Hunter mtn if they  See 18"or more Wed and look to be crushed again. The depths and gradient would be epic. The first 2' fell at 32F, that wasnt close to fluffy where i was.

[78Blizzard]

GFS hr 48-57 has 925 above 0C in BOS, and the line makes it from west of ORH to NE MA, before receding.  If you believe it.

[#NoPoles]

The dry slot keeps going over my fanny

[Hoth]

I still expect the QPF to tickle up further tomorrow. Lotta juicy high theta-e air getting tapped. I know Wiz mentioned the omega and high lapse rates, so probably some decent CAPE?

[JC-CT]

Just now, #NoPoles said:

The dry slot keeps going over my fanny

Then tell him to stop

[Ginx snewx]

Wheelhouse =Euro lock it

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

3k nam looks like hunter mtn redux

But im not quite cool w being charged 200$ Weekend rate when there was no power fri am to checkout sat.

Im staying put unless this goes up and in w early phase

Yeah, I can probably find you some friends out on the E Slope that have generators and are much better company than a lightless motel. 

[dendrite]

Just now, JC-CT said:

Then tell him to stop

He’s going for the jp again

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 minute ago, #NoPoles said:

The dry slot keeps going over my fanny

I’d rather dry slot at this point.

Ground is saturated around here. We don’t need any more rain.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

cmc joins the party. It likes to flop around for days until it figures things out.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I’d rather dry slot at this point.

Ground is saturated around here. We don’t need any more rain.

In west Taunton there is potential to see a nice gradient across TAN

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Wheelhouse =Euro lock it

Just inside BM w/ slight stall near LI is my guess.

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

cmc joins the party. It likes to flip around for days until it figures things out.

The NYC NJ crew at 48 ceast to exist wow wow wow 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

cmc joins the party. It likes to flop around for days until it figures things out.

It oddly gets some things right occasionally, a week out and then goes on a bender.

[Ginx snewx]

That time your feeder bands originate in the SW Gulf of Mexico ... P-What?

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

I may not be able to look at guidance tomorrow. There’s no way to go from here, but down. 

[Spanks45]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I may not be able to look at guidance tomorrow. There’s no way to go from here, but down. 

It's like scoring the winning touchdown too early, knowing that you just gave Tom Brady over a minute left to do his thing....

[Ginx snewx]

3 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

It's like scoring the winning touchdown too early, knowing that you just gave Tom Brady over a minute left to do his thing....

Then you knock the ball out of his hand?