Median to above confidence for moderate (major?) impact event, midweek

[bobbutts]

1 minute ago, NorEastermass128 said:

40" for Acton?

Hopefully it's overdoing the BL issues along the coast.  An inch or two here?  I'd lose it.

Looks like a very tough call for inside 495 where 20 miles makes a huge difference.

[jbenedet]

5 minutes ago, mostman said:

You read the NAM early. Didn’t you?

Heh. That's pretty damn close. That said, I'm not banking on the nam per se. I used the 12z euro as a guide to make that map. Basically expecting a more amped version of the 12z euro, with higher downstream UL heights and earlier phase.

[JC-CT]

Let's see how this map from one of Ryan's competitors does:

[Chrisrotary12]

Holy smokes sign me up for the NAM.  18-24" yes please.  Send winter out with a bang.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Ok, I’m sober again but hungover...I like the early interaction between the streams and how the trough continues to tilt favorably in the early going. Regardless where the models put the L on the surface, thats a growing signal approaching hecs territory from nyc to maine. 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Holy smokes sign me up for the NAM.  18-24" yes please.  Send winter out with a bang.

That's 18-24 for a lot of peeps.....

[CT Rain]

Here's my forecast

[Ginx snewx]

Blizzzzzzarrrd

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Let's see how this map from one of Ryan's competitors does:

Maybe they meant between noon - 2:00?

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Ok, I’m sober again but hungover...I like the early interaction between the streams and how the trough continues to tilt favorably in the early going. Regardless where the models put the L on the surface, thats a growing signal approaching hecs territory from nyc to maine. 

Another couple Nam runs and its going to be BECS, Just keep going higher if need be.

[DomNH]

I'd hit the NAM six ways to Sunday. Epic run. 

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, CT Rain said:

Here's my forecast

Pretty similar to fox actually

[ORH_wxman]

9 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Thing is though, that run didn't stall near ACK.

It's moving a lot slower though than earlier runs. Slowing down (but not stalling) will still increase ceiling.

[JC-CT]

So far, BOX is far more aggressive than the local stations. Interesting

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Another couple Nam runs and its going to be BECS, Just keep going higher if need be.

both Tip and Will mention the potential. Can’t deny it, can you? 

[JC-CT]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

It's moving a lot slower though than earlier runs. Slowing down (but not stalling) will still increase ceiling.

We will see if it's done adjusting or not.

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

both Tip and Will mention the potential. Can’t deny it, can you? 

The ceiling is high, Where that is is TBD.

[Hoth]

6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Ok, I’m sober again but hungover...I like the early interaction between the streams and how the trough continues to tilt favorably in the early going. Regardless where the models put the L on the surface, thats a growing signal approaching hecs territory from nyc to maine. 

I like that it tickled back east a bit. The super tucky, dryslot into CT, look seemed overdone.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Whatever, both Tip and Will mention the potential. Can’t deny it, can you? 

You def can't ignore the chance of a pretty wide area of 18"+ right now...I'd like to get the Euro on board though. Right now, it's a bit less crazy about the idea, though even on the Euro, you'd prob get some narrow max zones of 18" in weenie bands where they pivot. But solutions like the NAM/GFS are trying to take up another notch with the slowness and residence time in the commahead.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, dryslot said:

The ceiling is high, Where that is is TBD.

Right but it’s not in Kansas. nyc to maine covers a pretty large area I believe. I never said Southbury, CT USA. 

[moneypitmike]

2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

for the Uptown girls

I take.

[Ginx snewx]

19 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm mobile,  so sry if I missed something...

flip phone?

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Right but it’s not in Kansas. nyc to maine covers a pretty large area I believe. I never said Southbury, CT USA. 

That statement was more about the Nam, We know how it likes to increase the qpf on runs, So maybe it will continue, That was my thought, Really had nothing to do with Southbury, CT but a general comment to your post.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Kick that trough 20-30mi east and the love is felt to the coast.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

You def can't ignore the chance of a pretty wide area of 18"+ right now...I'd like to get the Euro on board though. Right now, it's a bit less crazy about the idea, though even on the Euro, you'd prob get some narrow max zones of 18" in weenie bands where they pivot. But solutions like the NAM/GFS are trying to take up another notch with the slowness and residence time in the commahead.

Completely agree. Never said it is a lock. I have my thoughts on this since the get go...yes, it is exciting chasing this...but I also understand the rarity of things breaking right. Trust me, I been through way too many letdowns to think a nam/gfs solution is anything but model porn. But the flow is ideal to trigger a bigger event. 

[Ginx snewx]

Someone mentioned Jan 11, yep

[CTWeatherFreak]

14 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Let's see how this map from one of Ryan's competitors does:

They're going down hard.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

That statement was more about the Nam, We know how it likes to increase the qpf on runs, So maybe it will continue, That was my thought, Really had nothing to do with Southbury, CT but a general comment to your post.

I gotchya. I’d still go with a general 8-16” from philly to maine until go time,regardless.

[CTWeatherFreak]

[JC-CT]

4 minutes ago, CTWeatherFreak said:

They're going down hard.

Yeah, the thing that bothers me is that obviously they think there will be some taint in the middle of the state, but then only having the NW corner at 5-10" would seem to be low.