Median to above confidence for moderate (major?) impact event, midweek

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I think right along the coast, it could be an issue and shouldn't be dismissed, but I'm not buying the contamination out to 495 and ORH area. That isn't going to happen with these low tracks. If the low track changes, then sure.

There is a pretty big area between right along the coast and ORH. These model runs are critical for that area.

18z seems to be ticking East so far.. which is good.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Places like taunton Manfield, Norton, Foxboro seem to be the dividing line of big snows and significant mix issues right now.

id like to see this jog east another 25 miles or so, that would greatly help out areas in interior SE Mass up to Boston.

Its so close to a paste nuke 

[DomNH]

This just simply has 1-2' for eastern areas written all over it. Still lots of time but that's the way it has been going for several cycles now. 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

There is a pretty big area between right along the coast and ORH. These model runs are critical for that area.

18z seems to be ticking East so far.. which is good.

I'd be surprised if there was much, if any, rain outside of 128 assuming these sfc and midlevel tracks....but not confident for closer in and also for SE MA in your 'hood. Your area over to like Marshfield is really the big question mark...further north around BOS is prob a little safer IMHO, but still need to watch carefully.

[CT Rain]

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I prob wouldn't worry outside of SE CT, S RI, and SE MA (perhaps immediate coast of eastern MA shore too) unless we start going to a 12z NAM track on reliable guidance.

I think those inside of 128 in E MA should not ignore it though...if Euro is more correct, then it will be paste right into BOS and even south shore, but not all the runs are doing that.

I do see some caution flags with drying out in the snow growth zone on some of the BUFKIT soundings. Have to watch that mid level low track. 

[powderfreak]

6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Sounding are snow in those rain algos, toss um

Yeah looks close to 0C at 925mb... probably a pasting or elevation dependent to accumulation amounts on that sounding.

[wxeyeNH]

Harvey going for 2-4" SE Boston.  4-6" within 128.  6-10" 128 to 495 and much of CN and W Mass.  Pocket of 8-12"  N Worcester hills and Berkshires.  All of S NH except SW is 6-10".  Seems low to me!

[weatherwiz]

Just now, CT Rain said:

I do see some caution flags with drying out in the snow growth zone on some of the BUFKIT soundings. Have to watch that mid level low track. 

I mentioned the same concerns in my blog post. We're talking less than 90% RH values throughout the snowgrowth zone during a good chunk of this. Obviously based off my forecast I didn't take too much into it b/c I feel like sometimes I take too much stock into stuff like that. 18z NAM bufkit soundings did look a bit better. 

I was also worried about potential for subsidence and also frontolysis...the FSU banding site had decent frontolysis move in between 21z and 0z then some good fronto moved back into western CT as the band pivoted through. 

But I've printed out some stuff to look harder into snow/cloud physics stuff 

[powderfreak]

Just now, wxeyeNH said:

Harvey going for 2-4" SE Boston.  4-6" within 128.  6-10" 128 to 495 and much of CN and W Mass.  Pocket of 8-12"  N Worcester hills and Berkshires.  All of S NH except SW is 6-10".  Seems low to me!

Every forecast I've seen right now all over New England seems low.

But it is also better to probably slowly ramp up (plenty of time left to increase) rather than go out with 14-24", get the public into a frenzy and then have to back-peddle.  Still plenty of news cycles to gradually increase the amounts.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

2 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Harvey going for 2-4" SE Boston.  4-6" within 128.  6-10" 128 to 495 and much of CN and W Mass.  Pocket of 8-12"  N Worcester hills and Berkshires.  All of S NH except SW is 6-10".  Seems low to me!

Seems low. Hes hedging WPC Concerns about a more inland track i believe. Those folks are not....um uninformed

[HoarfrostHubb]

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

Every forecast I've seen right now all over New England seems low.

But it is also better to probably slowly ramp up (plenty of time left to increase) rather than go out with 14-24", get the public into a frenzy and then have to back-peddle.  Still plenty of news cycles to gradually increase the amounts.

Agreed on all fronts.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

Every forecast I've seen right now all over New England seems low.

But it is also better to probably slowly ramp up (plenty of time left to increase) rather than go out with 14-24", get the public into a frenzy and then have to back-peddle.  Still plenty of news cycles to gradually increase the amounts.

Yeah there is no need to go too crazy yet...we've seen these things back off before. I do think amounts will be pretty high for most, but you can easily ramp it up tomorrow still with 24 hours notice.

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah there is no need to go too crazy yet...we've seen these things back off before. I do think amounts will be pretty high for most, but you can easily ramp it up tomorrow still with 24 hours notice.

Do you think we could linger light, steady snows after 7:00 am Thursday in CT with the ULL. Like maybe 1-3” or something?

[Ginx snewx]

5 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah looks close to 0C at 925mb... probably a pasting or elevation dependent to accumulation amounts on that sounding.

That is 32/33 degree paste, people are "ascared" because of the last marine tainted storm. We know what the GFS does to the last 50 meters of the atmosphere

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Do you think we could linger light, steady snows after 7:00 am Thursday in CT with the ULL. Like maybe 1-3” or something?

Yeah its possible...esp on some of the slower solutions.

[Ginx snewx]

6 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Every forecast I've seen right now all over New England seems low.

But it is also better to probably slowly ramp up (plenty of time left to increase) rather than go out with 14-24", get the public into a frenzy and then have to back-peddle.  Still plenty of news cycles to gradually increase the amounts.

exactly , Its Monday, if they ramp it will be at noon, 6, and 11 with teasers every hour " I have new information just coming  into our weather center, a powerful Noreaster will impact New England. How will it effect your commute, details at 11

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah its possible...esp on some of the slower solutions.

boy is obsessed with timing of the end, every storm.

[ORH_wxman]

Can't seem to get the GGEM on board totally with the ACK/Elbow theme...went back east from 12z...18z run is out near the benchmark.

 

Tossed.

[CT Rain]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

boy is obsessed with timing of the end, every storm.

It's honestly an illness he has. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

boy is obsessed with timing of the end, every storm.

For this storm, the timing means a lot to my interests.  Hoping to squeeze in a scheduled 1/2 day at my school and ditch the afternoon PD. Same is true in daughter’s district.

But what can ya do?

[Ginx snewx]

So I went back and read the Miller Ray storm of Jan 12th 2011, some funny arse ****. Boy did models flip flop on that. Kevin said the Euro sucked 6 or 7 times right until it absolutely destroyed him then it was right. Lol The more things change the more the weenies stay the same. we fun, hey not sure you noticed but our subforum is approaching a million posts, of course Scooter has a quarter million of them

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

boy is obsessed with timing of the end, every storm.

I like timing start and end. Maybe you disagree.. but with block she should linger light steady stuff well into Thursday with ULL

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

For this storm, the timing means a lot to my interests.  Hoping to squeeze in a scheduled 1/2 day at my school and ditch the afternoon PD. Same is true in daughter’s district.

But what can ya do?

whats that have to do with the ending?

[STILL N OF PIKE]

How far from a million posts, Steve?

[ScituateWX]

17 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'd be surprised if there was much, if any, rain outside of 128 assuming these sfc and midlevel tracks....but not confident for closer in and also for SE MA in your 'hood. Your area over to like Marshfield is really the big question mark...further north around BOS is prob a little safer IMHO, but still need to watch carefully.

 

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

How far from a million posts, Steve?

959,772

[HoarfrostHubb]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

whats that have to do with the ending?

Ending could affect cleanup and could cost us another day...salty?

[HoarfrostHubb]

Fisher’s map from WBZ

 

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, ScituateWX said:

 

I was thinking about you today. I saw a tweet from Harvey saying the Coastal Flooding wouldn't be as bad Wed. I got to thinking. The barriers and protected sand bars are eroded, the tides are still 2 feet higher than normal, although normal predicted tides are a foot lower, to me  its possible that this next storm is a real disaster.

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Ending could affect cleanup and could cost us another day...salty?

ok