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Median to above confidence for moderate (major?) impact event, midweek

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

What do you have from here up to ORH ?

I think 8-14" is a good forecast for the elevation zones there. Even in the lousy solutions I feel like ORH is still getting 7-9" and I'm pretty sure the crappiest solutions won't verify. But there's still weird things that could happen like subsidence zones and such. So need to put the floor down there.

I am hesitant to go higher than 14 because of the somewhat more progressive look versus some of the stall scenarios yesterday. But we can't rule out 16-18 lollis in spots...esp if euro is more correct and we have a longner residence time inside the good midlevel stuff and dryslot shunts mostly east. 

 

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I think 8-14" is a good forecast for the elevation zones there. Even in the lousy solutions I feel like ORH is still getting 7-9" and I'm pretty sure the crappiest solutions won't verify. But there's still weird things that could happen like subsidence zones and such. So need to put the floor down there.

I am hesitant to go higher than 14 because of the somewhat more progressive look versus some of the stall scenarios yesterday. But we can't rule out 16-18 lollis in spots...esp if euro is more correct and we have a longner residence time inside the good midlevel stuff and dryslot shunts mostly east. 

 

Yeah that all makes sense . My feeling is the folks that lowered today will jack em right back up tomorrow morning . Mesos so far tonight already going back east / colder. I have a solid 12-13” here as the call . Wouldn’t be shocked at 14–16

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yeah that all makes sense . My feeling is the folks that lowered today will jack em right back up tomorrow morning . Mesos so far tonight already going back east / colder. I have a solid 12-13” here as the call . Wouldn’t be shocked at 14–16

10-14" for you is what I'd say.  Same as Will and your thoughts but I think you get 10" regardless, all ball busting aside.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Some of these 3-6 and 6-8 maps tonight are head scratchers for sure. There’s just nothing to support that 

6-10 is very possible too. These dryslots always move in faster and it will be crap snow when the DGZ dries out.

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The 4 Seasons

The 4 Seasons

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yeah that all makes sense . My feeling is the folks that lowered today will jack em right back up tomorrow morning . Mesos so far tonight already going back east / colder. I have a solid 12-13” here as the call . Wouldn’t be shocked at 14–16

I agree with that actually

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mahk_webstah

mahk_webstah

Posted
Posted
38 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

I honestly doubt it will matter much when the goods come in. Looks like a pretty hellacious thump in the afternoon. Thundersnow, 1-3" hour rates. I think it will be fun. 

You are so right.  In heavy snow there is no problem accumulating, even in April or May.  The only time it is a problem is in borderline temps during light or moderate snow.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Looks like our first run of the 00z suite, the RPM will come in a hair colder and east from 21Z which was already moving in that direction. 

Yeah it is starting to back off those NAM-esque solutions from earlier....it even had a run that tracked over Kevin's fanny.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
Just now, J Paul Gordon said:

18 inches north, 4 to 6 immediately south. You'll be able to cross the highway to the jackpots. 

I'm not sure of anything, but NWS discussion page seems to be waffling a bit now.

ORH is gonna get smoked. No real worries there unless you're gunning for something crazy like 18"+

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted

Lol.....no one expecting crap here from talking to folks.   Wife and I were at the funeral in NJ but daughter had to stay behind as school could not be missed this week.    Wife and I hid all of the liquor and the cabinet was looked into but they didn’t booze!

i will be suprised if I get the zilch everyone is calling for (not this bb).

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Lol.....no one expecting crap here from talking to folks.   Wife and I were at the funeral in NJ but daughter had to stay behind as school could not be missed this week.    Wife and I hid all of the liquor and the cabinet was looked into but they didn’t booze!

i will be suprised if I get the zilch everyone is calling for (not this bb).

Srefs mean is 5 for Boston

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wxsniss

wxsniss

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Lol.....no one expecting crap here from talking to folks.   Wife and I were at the funeral in NJ but daughter had to stay behind as school could not be missed this week.    Wife and I hid all of the liquor and the cabinet was looked into but they didn’t booze!

i will be suprised if I get the zilch everyone is calling for (not this bb).

Yeah Jerry I'm nervous (more about my own forecast to coworkers than getting mby snow) and don't envy the TV forecasters... see my post ~ 30 min ago. We're expecting gravitation towards Euro but window is closing and need to see some changes at H5 to bring this east.

First out the gate NAM thru 6hrs definite less digging of trough... 

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