Median to above confidence for moderate (major?) impact event, midweek

[tavwtby]

16 minutes ago, snowman21 said:

I imagine it's real since it has been snowing lightly here for about the last hour.

I figured, dews pretty close to Temp there

[H2Otown_WX]

Just now, Thunderblizzard said:

Updated one from NBC

Yeah, sorry that wasn't on the site yet when I saved it.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

My fave go to hrdps.....as I was changing into my pajamas....I decided to remain nude after seeing this:

[#NoPoles]

Even here in Plymouth we had some oes,

[Thunderblizzard]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

My fave go to hrdps.....as I was changing into my pajamas....I decided to remain nude after this:

[rimetree]

Fisher going 6-12 here...I think we're good for more than that? Already snowing here pretty good with ocean effect...nice taste of what's to come.

[wxsniss]

CMC thermals, like GFS, are silly

Can't see CMC soundings but 925 0C never makes it past Plymouth

4 for 4 southeast in 0z suite (haven't seen UK yet)

[OrangeCTWX]

HDERP is a CT weenie dream

[ORH_wxman]

16 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Same as GFS, but higher resolution. Different assimilation than currently being used, but not the same as the Euro. You can find positives and negatives for that, so we'll see what happens. But MOS will go away since we won't have those models to base it off of, and we won't have the stats for the new one yet.

I've seen NGGPS and FV3 both used, but who knows where it'll settle. Maybe it'll be like when the AVN became the GFS and people just kept calling it the AVN.

It took a while for me to stop hearing AVN, prob a good 3-4 years....some model sites still have it listed as AVN too, and it hasn't been the AVN since 2002.

[CT Rain]

5 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said:

Yeah, sorry that wasn't on the site yet when I saved it.

Yup I updated during the 11 p.m. news

[Bostonseminole]

1 hour ago, WintersComing said:

GFS colder as welll

awt.. people freaking earlier .. this was not a complicated set up imo... Euro shines in these

[ORH_wxman]

Hi res RGEM is pretty awesome.

SNE never dryslots. Widespread 12"+ NW of BOS-PVD with some 18"+ lollis.

[H2Otown_WX]

2 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Yup I updated during the 11 p.m. news

I was watching, I like your call. I think this could be something special and I hope Death Valley gets in on the fun.

[OceanStWx]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It took a while for me to stop hearing AVN, prob a good 3-4 years....some model sites still have it listed as AVN too, and it hasn't been the AVN since 2002.

I always loved the story about Owen pronouncing it ay-vin in front of Kocin and getting corrected that it was A-V-N. 

[Bostonseminole]

good luck all, will be watching this one from 3000 miles away.. hopefully can get a a flurry or 2 when i get back on friday AM

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I always loved the story about Owen pronouncing it ay-vin in front of Kocin and getting corrected that it was A-V-N. 

Lol...that was classic. Talk about choking when the stakes were high. Kocin wrote the CCAMS forecast that day too and signed it "Kocin '77"....lol...that was awesome.

[DavisStraight]

13 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

My fave go to hrdps.....as I was changing into my pajamas....I decided to remain nude after seeing this:

Lock it in and I'll be nude too

[WxBlue]

13 minutes ago, rimetree said:

Fisher going 6-12 here...I think we're good for more than that? Already snowing here pretty good with ocean effect...nice taste of what's to come.

Add few inches to that range.

[ORH_wxman]

00z Ukie maps

 

 

[8611Blizz]

Every boston tv air met has gone with at least some rain here in Boston. How long it rains and how long it snows however is different on almost each one.

[bristolri_wx]

Haven't posted a map in a while... here's my thoughts...

[wxsniss]

0z vs. 12z

UKMET shifted east ~ 30-50 miles

ICON shifted east ~ 50 miles

That's every member of 0z suite with Euro pending, must be some new data that was ingested

[Greg]

I know most are waiting for the Euro right now but if this gets any further east or colder solutions, by the time you see the morning weather maps, they will be changed.

[CT Rain]

I’m pretty bullish. I definitely feel like this will be a fun storm around here and could overperformed.

- earlier issues I had with dry slotting and snow growth issues seem gone with a slight tick SE with mid level lows and more importantly more compact low level lows.

- max strength of mid level lows just SE of MTP maximizes frontogenesis up here.

- fairly long duration MAUL/instability.

- potential for pivot of snow band with dry slot punched off toward GON.

- extreme omega modeled and punching through DGZ.

 

we snow. Could easily become a 12-18 kinda deal locally and maybe a swath of higher impact power outage snow.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, CT Rain said:

I’m pretty bullish. I definitely feel like this will be a fun storm around here and could overperformed.

- earlier issues I had with dry slotting and snow growth issues seem gone with a slight tick SE with mid level lows and more importantly more compact low level lows.

- max strength of mid level lows just SE of MTP maximizes frontogenesis up here.

- fairly long duration MAUL/instability.

- potential for pivot of snow band with dry slot punched off toward GON.

- extreme omega modeled and punching through DGZ.

 

we snow. Could easily become a 12-18 kinda deal locally and maybe a swath of higher impact power outage snow.

And....we take em off.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

SWC says everybody dances:

We going with 12-18” statewide, 6-12” se ct, along southern RI into SE MA with lesser amounts towards the islands, 3-6”. Boston metro 6-12”. Then Basically take the 12-18” wide swath in CT and run it up northeast to Maine with localized 20-24” jacks in NE MA , S NH and ME. Good luck and goodnight. 

[ice1972]

6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

And....we take em off.

I never put em back on.....holy moly....

[HullMA]

A little ocean effect to kick it off here in newburyport. 35 degrees. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

SWC says everybody dances:

We going with 12-18” statewide, 6-12” se ct, along southern RI into SE MA with lesser amounts towards the islands, 3-6”. Boston metro 6-12”. Then Basically take the 12-18” wide swath in CT and run it up northeast to Maine with localized 20-24” jacks in NE MA , S NH and ME. Good luck and goodnight. 

I see you neglected NW MA and S VT where I fear our 12" totals are starting to slip away to the East...

[Greg]

35 Degrees and light ocean effect snow?  That may be a good sign, not sure though.  Reason is that you're at 35 right now with light precip and snowing.  Think what it would be like with heavier precip rates dragging that cold air down right above the deck.