Ginx snewx Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Just now, CT Rain said: I don't think so. That's some very strong low level forcing there... we get the mid level magic back this way from these 700/850 low tracks. nice, whats your early take on accumulations around the state Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Nice post. There’s been a noticeable trend of earlier stream involvement. Would be nice for the euro to latch onto that idea today. It does not mean tucked and rain for east zones either, some have been thinking is but it is false. It just gets us in a better spot to stall it over ACK, everyone but the islands would be happy with that. Not everyone.............lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: nice, whats your early take on accumulations around the state Bob went 4-8" this morning which seems like a reasonable starting point. Let's see how the 12z runs shake out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 1 minute ago, CTWeatherFreak said: Nams and GFS seem to love regurgitating the central ct screw zone .. CMC says What screw zone? Oh Canada! Ya I don't see how Central CT gets a screw zone like that unless we dry slot. NAM was the only one showing that but we all pretty much agree that NAM is a bit over amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: GFS and Canadian are similar in behavior with the ULL and it closing off to the south. The QPF immediately NW of the low center signals very strong low level forcing there. You can see at hr 66 a funky MSLP depiction east of Chatham.The 925 LLJ is 70kts there. It's almost like a CF, but not...more like an extension of low pressure and it trying to reform there where WAA is going wild. This has been a feature on guidance for awhile. Someone just west of the CF (there will likely be one but not huge gradient...like 30-31 vs 34-36) will prob get ridiculous snowfall totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Just now, CT Rain said: Bob went 4-8" this morning which seems like a reasonable starting point. Let's see how the 12z runs shake out. Take em UP!!! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 5, 2018 Author Share Posted March 5, 2018 4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Nice post. There’s been a noticeable trend of earlier stream involvement. Would be nice for the euro to latch onto that idea today. It does not mean tucked and rain for east zones either, some have been thinking is but it is false. It just gets us in a better spot to stall it over ACK, everyone but the islands would be happy with that. I think it may ... however, I can imagine a scenario just the same where the recent NAM's more stream interaction, and now the GFS joining in with that thinking, are both still over doing that... The Euro is uuuuusually pretty damn fantastic at < four days with this type of open air, middle troposheric mechanical processing ... Put it this way, if this thing does phase more proficiently ...and the Euro maintains less ...? That would be a pretty striking nuanced failure by a tool that quite frankly rarely does so with that type of handling. Interesting run no doubt, huh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Someone just west of the CF (there will likely be one but not huge gradient...like 30-31 vs 34-36) will prob get ridiculous snowfall totals. I agree. Signal is there. The thermals concern me, but would be a shellacking towards the end,or maybe more like a GGEM deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 12z JMA is 1.5'' qpf SNE wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Just now, CoastalWx said: I agree. Signal is there. The thermals concern me, but would be a shellacking towards the end,or maybe more like a GGEM deal. Yeah immediate coast may struggle for a while, esp first half of the storm...but if we it ends up slightly east more toward the Euro, then they'll prob just get destroyed with paste. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: That’s 2 days or 36-48 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I think it may ... however, I can imagine a scenario just the same where the recent NAM's more stream interaction, and now the GFS joining in with that thinking, are both still over doing that... The Euro is uuuuusually pretty damn fantastic at < four days with this type of open air, middle troposheric mechanical processing ... Put it this way, if this thing does phase more proficiently ...and the Euro maintains less ...? That would be a pretty striking nuanced failure by a tool that quite frankly rarely does so with that type of handling. Interesting run no doubt, huh. Agree. it does have it just a little later than these american guys. So even if we compromise on it, it will work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 I think QPF is underdone in CT given that evolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 I'm riding the Meso 3km NAM. OK it's probably somewhat overdone, but it's been the hot hand this winter. Now the GFS trends that way. The Euro was inconsistent with the last event and just not what it used to be. Gone are the days where it's gonna be Euro against the world of models and the Euro will school them all. That said, I think it's still nice for most interior SNE because they all show the hook right just in time, and lets assume the NAM is a little too crazy hugging so far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: That’s 2 days or 36-48 hours Day and day of snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 1 minute ago, Logan11 said: I'm riding the Meso 3km NAM. OK it's probably somewhat overdone, but it's been the hot hand this winter. Now the GFS trends that way. The Euro was inconsistent with the last event and just not what it used to be. Gone are the days where it's gonna be Euro against the world of models and the Euro will school them all. That said, I think it's still nice for most interior SNE because they all show the hook right just in time, and lets assume the NAM is a little too crazy hugging so far north. Huh? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 hr 66 in KBOS... I'm waiting for text output, but that's heavy wet snow with those rates and very cold aloft: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 21 minutes ago, dryslot said: Not everyone.............lol Tell me about it. I may need to rethink where I'm going to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 uncle looks like it tracks right over the elbow. should be good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Sweet UK look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 14 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Tell me about it. I may need to rethink where I'm going to be. Better if its at 42N or north of there, These sooner phase solutions will close off H5 further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 6 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Tell me about it. I may need to rethink where I'm going to be. Well, I can help you out with where not to go. Do not come to the Cape cod Canal area. It gon rain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Well looks like I'll get my GOM phaser. Pretty pumped for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 10 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Sweet UK look. We don't toss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rnaude241 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, JC-CT said: We don't toss Some of us do Let's keep it east of Nantucket Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 8 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Well looks like I'll get my GOM phaser. Pretty pumped for this one. Easily at least a foot here. Even close to 20" if we play our cards right with first half of this storm thermally wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Euler Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 What do you all think about a flight out of BDL at 5PM Weds? Should I be making other plans? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 I would buy that Ukie look, Looked dam close to the 0z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 8 minutes ago, JC-CT said: We don't toss You have the qpf total? looks like a huge hit from philly to maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Ukie ticked west a bit from 0z. Would be surprised if Euro didn't come west a touch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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