40/70 Benchmark Posted September 30, 2018 Share Posted September 30, 2018 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Someone photoshop my face to him lol. In all honesty I don’t see any red flags yet. If we really want to look for something, maybe the QBO potentially flipping positive..but it didn't hurt '78. Although that season was more decodedly modoki. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 30, 2018 Share Posted September 30, 2018 2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: Thoughts on the abnormally warm October to come, I've heard that it looks more like a La Nina pattern than a Nino. Is this due to the relatively weak state of the Nino? How do we even know if it’s going to turn out Abnormally warm....it hasn’t even started yet lol. Why, Cuz modeling last week showed AN to start??? We know how that can change. This upcoming first week already not looking quite as warm as it did back on Wednesday and Thursday. Let’s see how the month shakes out at the end...and even if it is abnormally warm, I’m in Jerry’s boat on the hang over from summer, and would not let that worry me on what the upcoming winter may turn out like. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted September 30, 2018 Share Posted September 30, 2018 2 hours ago, weathafella said: I think it’s totally unrelated to upcoming ENSO. It could be a hangover from the summer but mid month October looks to flip cooler. Isn’t it due to the MJO not moving further which is giving the nina like pattern? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 30, 2018 Share Posted September 30, 2018 It’s certainly an unusually rare October pattern for an El Niño. It’s generally troffy in the east. It’s more common to see November be mild and even then it’s usually more a zonal type setup. Any sort of long duration western trof/eastern ridge pattern doesn’t happen often in any El Niño October or November. I think late October and early November 2002 did have a 2 week stretch where a pattern like that setup though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 30, 2018 Share Posted September 30, 2018 3 hours ago, WinterWolf said: How do we even know if it’s going to turn out Abnormally warm....it hasn’t even started yet lol. Why, Cuz modeling last week showed AN to start??? We know how that can change. This upcoming first week already not looking quite as warm as it did back on Wednesday and Thursday. Let’s see how the month shakes out at the end...and even if it is abnormally warm, I’m in Jerry’s boat on the hang over from summer, and would not let that worry me on what the upcoming winter may turn out like. Incredible model support, EPS shows relentless AN heights. First 10 days of October could be +10. Not sure how you erase something like that for 2nd half. WAR pattern has been a dominant force and has been verifying much stronger as we get closer. Models today are actually showing the most ridging yet with mid 80s surface temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 30, 2018 Share Posted September 30, 2018 3 hours ago, dmillz25 said: Isn’t it due to the MJO not moving further which is giving the nina like pattern? MJO like current in winter would indeed be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 30, 2018 Share Posted September 30, 2018 23 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Incredible model support, EPS shows relentless AN heights. First 10 days of October could be +10. Not sure how you erase something like that for 2nd half. WAR pattern has been a dominant force and has been verifying much stronger as we get closer. Models today are actually showing the most ridging yet with mid 80s surface temps. I'd rather than July-October...as much as I hate the heat, I'd rather deal with sampazz, than 2011-2012 winter-fail. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 30, 2018 Share Posted September 30, 2018 4 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said: It’s certainly an unusually rare October pattern for an El Niño. It’s generally troffy in the east. It’s more common to see November be mild and even then it’s usually more a zonal type setup. Any sort of long duration western trof/eastern ridge pattern doesn’t happen often in any El Niño October or November. I think late October and early November 2002 did have a 2 week stretch where a pattern like that setup though It's an interesting question for me (not that you or anyone asked...) Without the gradients in the atmosphere, how does the ENSO state physically force or drive anything to happen at all? ...maybe why the present look doesn't reflect a fledgling El Nino...? The present ENSO state is not hugely biased in the warm phase, either. Meanwhile, the total hemispheric atmosphere is still not yet established much compression of the ambient heights due to seasonal cooling ... where subsequently the southern latitudes naturally resist --> exposing the heat source. Once that takes place, it "presses" - for lack of better word - and the tropical forcing kicks in ..viola, pattern adjusts accordingly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 30, 2018 Share Posted September 30, 2018 1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said: Incredible model support, EPS shows relentless AN heights. First 10 days of October could be +10. Not sure how you erase something like that for 2nd half. WAR pattern has been a dominant force and has been verifying much stronger as we get closer. Models today are actually showing the most ridging yet with mid 80s surface temps. Mmm .. not sure on either, myself. I don't see how "the models" would be indicating mid 80s with high pressure strung out N of ORD-BOS latitude across S and SE Canada the whole way. Would tend to undercut those warm looking heights and steeply invert the lower troposphere. Having said that... the models and perhaps ultimately verification, may show that the anticyclonic action was/is over-done... but as of right now, synoptic reasoning doesn't support mid 80s here. But, perhaps you don't mean regions along our latitude - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted October 1, 2018 Share Posted October 1, 2018 If October turns out as forecasted then keep in mind Oct 2002 & 2009 had western trough/east/SE ridge combo. 2002 closer than 2009, both stronger +ENSO at that point Of course ridge forecasted is on steroids. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 1, 2018 Share Posted October 1, 2018 you folks are waaaay too preoccupied/obsessed with the 'ridge' complexion and not nearly taking any sort of Meteorological tact with your analysis. It's not a warm week. For some reason ..that message is not resonating with folks ... or being outright ignored. But, it's not going to be very warm anomalous at the surface with that weather pattern this week. In fact, the weather is more likely to be utterly uninspired and well ...boring. but, this is a seasonal outlook thread so - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 2, 2018 Share Posted October 2, 2018 On 9/30/2018 at 10:28 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I will say....the weak nino-solar min comp is not only cold, but wet along the east coast...especially north. This adds appeal to my upcoming residence at PIT2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted October 2, 2018 Share Posted October 2, 2018 4 hours ago, moneypitmike said: This adds appeal to my upcoming residence at PIT2. Kevin has already cancelled winter. It useless to go on hoping for cold/wet anything south of Baffin Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 2, 2018 Share Posted October 2, 2018 19 minutes ago, J Paul Gordon said: Kevin has already cancelled winter. It useless to go on hoping for cold/wet anything south of Baffin Island. He did very well last fall with his constant ratter winter calls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 2, 2018 Share Posted October 2, 2018 4 hours ago, moneypitmike said: This adds appeal to my upcoming residence at PIT2. QPF should not be an issue for ya up here with that big pond to your east.................... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted October 2, 2018 Share Posted October 2, 2018 2 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: He did very well last fall with his constant ratter winter calls. Unless you consider February to be the only winter month, I would beg to differ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 2, 2018 Share Posted October 2, 2018 1 hour ago, J Paul Gordon said: Unless you consider February to be the only winter month, I would beg to differ. Detecting sarcasm ftl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 3, 2018 Share Posted October 3, 2018 It's winter somewhere in the conus. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 3, 2018 Share Posted October 3, 2018 Can’t wait till we see a forecast for those amounts here....looking forward to it. Nice post Hippy. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 3, 2018 Share Posted October 3, 2018 Any thoughts on the NAO? Its been so positive lately basically going back to 2011. The Atlantic SST distribution supports positive in the winter and the Strat temps are very cold from 1 to 10mb. El Nino and low solar support negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 3, 2018 Share Posted October 3, 2018 27 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: Any thoughts on the NAO? Its been so positive lately basically going back to 2011. The Atlantic SST distribution supports positive in the winter and the Strat temps are very cold from 1 to 10mb. El Nino and low solar support negative. Maybe it's like last winter and leans negative for a month or so? If I had to WAG, I would lean more positive with maybe a period in the mid to late winter where it goes negative. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 3, 2018 Share Posted October 3, 2018 Last winter the nao was 1 month too late. Still had a good March but those marginal events would have been powder kegs in Feb. If we can squeeze a favorable pacific and a decent atlantic this season, if if if.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 3, 2018 Share Posted October 3, 2018 13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Maybe it's like last winter and leans negative for a month or so? If I had to WAG, I would lean more positive with maybe a period in the mid to late winter where it goes negative. Yeah I can see that. (Hopefully minus the central Atlantic ridge from hell.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 3, 2018 Share Posted October 3, 2018 North American snow cover was well above normal on Rutgers for September but Eurasia was closer to normal or even below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 3, 2018 Share Posted October 3, 2018 I guess I can put this here, but neat PDF on the big 10/4/87 snow event in western NE. Nothing for Tolland though. Even SW CT got snow. http://www.wcsu.edu/weather/research_papers/Third_Tri_State/Frank.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 3, 2018 Share Posted October 3, 2018 36 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I guess I can put this here, but neat PDF on the big 10/4/87 snow event in western NE. Nothing for Tolland though. Even SW CT got snow. http://www.wcsu.edu/weather/research_papers/Third_Tri_State/Frank.pdf Wasn’t the following winter terrible? I don’t recall any memorable events in 87/88. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 3, 2018 Share Posted October 3, 2018 36 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I guess I can put this here, but neat PDF on the big 10/4/87 snow event in western NE. Nothing for Tolland though. Even SW CT got snow. http://www.wcsu.edu/weather/research_papers/Third_Tri_State/Frank.pdf It's hard to even conceive that possibly happening right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 3, 2018 Share Posted October 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Wasn’t the following winter terrible? I don’t recall any memorable events in 87/88. That was a decent winter overall. Definitely good in the interior I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 3, 2018 Share Posted October 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: It's hard to even conceive that possibly happening right now. LOL, I know. Instead we debate when to uninstall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 3, 2018 Share Posted October 3, 2018 And a month later everyone from DC-BOS was buried Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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