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eyewall

Countdown to Winter 2018 -2019

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With the winter off the rails here and the big coastal expected to be a non event in this neck of the woods it is time to look ahead to next year. Post your thoughts here on what it might look like.

 

PS this thread changed our fortunes last year ;) .

 

Sent from my VS995 using Tapatalk

 

 

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56 minutes ago, eyewall said:

 

With the winter off the rails here and the big coastal expected to be a non event in this neck of the woods it is time to look ahead to next year. Post your thoughts here on what it might look like.

 

PS this thread changed our fortunes last year ;) .

 

Sent from my VS995 using Tapatalk

 

 

 

I may start veering in this direction myself soon....that and fantasy baseball. 

My first instinct is that next year may be ENSO neutral and less than stellar.

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I wonder if my snow pack from this winter will stick around until next winter...lol. I still have 30-36" depending on measurement location. It will surely solidify after this rain with the colder weather coming and with some snow threats next week...

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I thought neutral-warm ENSO years tended to produce stormier winters ... 

I can think of at least one year where that was certainly true... 

But then again, the problem with "neutral-warm ENSO" labels ...or the like, is that the vast majority of times, the ENSO is in some state of changing ... It may be transiently passing through the scale at neutral warm, warm, cool, cold, hot ...earning its distinction by happenstance...blah blah... when/where in space and time it is the forces inducing it to change that are really the physical drive for a given winter in question's bias one way or the other.  

i.e., lots of moving parts there...  I'm not really ever put out or in one way or the other when I hear about ENSO this or that...  Like, the super NINO a couple clicks back had proportionately, vastly under-performing global impacts compared to the scale of standard deviation of that monster event...  Something was offsetting - 

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2009-10 of course is going to end up being at least "an" analog with solar. ENSO will probably be similar although doubt we get a moderate Nino like that winter. Summer so far 500mb is polar opposite of 2009.

2014-15 could be another possible analog simply because this just has the feel of strong west coast ridging (PDO is going to spike,  signs there already) & tendency for +NAO leaves a very cold source region over east Canada & Hudson Bay.

Low solar will more than likely enhance high latitude blocking, most likely in the EPO region or at least currently has that feel. I will say this, still coming out of a Nina background state, I'm not sold on super +NAO continuing just yet. I think NE ends up colder with +NAO with this setup versus having a -NAO. Of course, not exactly what you want to hear as far as big noreasters, however, all its takes is a transient -NAO block to work magic. 

From my standpoint smart money overall at this point is a colder than average NE. AND REMEMBER, these are very preliminary thoughts. Lots can change depending on ENSO..etc.

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It’s just a matter of time before the NAO averages negative for DJF, this has been an impressive stretch of positive NAO winters for the past 7 years or so. 

QBO looks like it will be transitioning from negative to positive before or during the winter and that is not terrible if you want to see a -NAO. 

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2 hours ago, Powderboy413 said:

It’s just a matter of time before the NAO averages negative for DJF, this has been an impressive stretch of positive NAO winters for the past 7 years or so. 

QBO looks like it will be transitioning from negative to positive before or during the winter and that is not terrible if you want to see a -NAO. 

The only issue I see with -nao is this propensity to form in late winter early spring. The only heart of winter I can recall is Dec-Jan 2011. The QBO was favorable for ATL blocking last winter and we were just able to sneak it in March. It should be a ‘it’s just a matter of time’ but tendenacies cannot be ignored. 

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3 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

The only issue I see with -nao is this propensity to form in late winter early spring. The only heart of winter I can recall is Dec-Jan 2011. The QBO was favorable for ATL blocking last winter and we were just able to sneak it in March. It should be a ‘it’s just a matter of time’ but tendenacies cannot be ignored. 

Yeah I was disappointed last year with how favorable everything looked. I have read some articles in the past stating -NAO is more likely in solar minuimum and when it is ascending and + NAO is favorable when solar cycle is declining. Heres article if interested 

http://lasp.colorado.edu/media/projects/SORCE/meetings/2015/presentations/Session 2/d_Mursula_SORCE_talk_Public.pdf

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I'm going to start peeking around when I get back from Hawaii, and will probably update my blog to begin binning by anticipated ENSO intensity when the next ENSO update comes out later this week. 

I can tell you right now what will unequivocally make or break this winter.

If its east based, winter will suck....if it isn't, it should be very good for at least 40N point north.....further south would have better luck with a moderate Nino, as opposed to weak.

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