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Countdown to Winter 2018 -2019


eyewall
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Wow, just by looking at the El Nino values expected this winter, and how it correlates to previous winters, and the SSTAs off the East Coast and the MDR in July of 04, 14 and this year, are all very similar in pattern and numbers and then those following winters corresponded to 04/05 (98") and 14/15 (75") here in Harwich, MA, those winters were neutral-weak El Nino ENSO conditions followed by a full blown El Nino the winter after, followed by La Nina the winter after that.  Also in the summers of 04/14/18 the MDR is suffering a cooling trend, and the SSTA are slightly AB normal right now, which corresponds well to those in house tropical development storms of the 04/14 seasons.

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13 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Just judging by that alone, I know there is a lot more to the atmosphere, but with the East Coast SSTs above normal expected this winter, we could see a very intense winter with Nor'easters.

I think that will be the case more often than not moving forward, James..

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While Ray is right on most occasions with the warm Gulf Stream aiding in Cyclogenesis, especially on the explosive kind, as a warmer Atlantic Ocean with a cold air mass overhead will allow a storm to explode as it hits the coast, I am more inclined to think so, when the STJ and the Northern jet get involved.  While there is no way to tell what the NAO will be on a day to day basis, there are signs it will be negative by monthly observations.  Looking at the upper level pattern, there is a certain pattern that evolves while looking to the KUs, the upper pattern is simply amplified troughing with western CONUS ridging due to the El Nino conditions of the ENSO especially weak pattern of El Nino leading to a +PNA regime.  Nor'easters love the amplified upper level pattern, upper level support is key in determining the surface outcomes in the winter time.  So with the pattern like in July, with the MDR slightly warmer than average right now, and the East Coast and western Atlantic Ocean warmer than normal especially south of New Foundland and east of Cape Cod, MA, showing similar progress as to the July months of 2004 and 2014, as well as 2018, therefore the winters of 04/05, 14/15 and now 18/19 could lead to a weak El Nino regime and favor a very snowy winter for Southern New England, especially east of Springfield, MA.

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2 hours ago, weathafella said:

I posted on FB around Labor Day 2014 that we may set records.   I was extremely confident at that point but I don’t feel that way now. Muddy crystal ball so far.

A couple of weeks ago JB hinted about a late starting winter. I do think the current overall pattern is going to be difficult to eradicate.

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