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40/70 Benchmark

Blizzard 2018 Take II: The Firehose

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First drops here (pains me to say that). Radar looks juiced. Though the snow idea won't pan out down here, this is going to be absolutely fascinating from a dynamics perspective. 

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1 hour ago, MarkO said:

41.5/36 in Lowell. Looks like I'll probably be around 39 when the rain starts.

Unreal that all of this works out perfectly, and we don't have a serviceable airmass and the thing remains progressive despite full capture.

Final Call

http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2018/03/short-term-blizzard-friday-night-final.html

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If you all want to calculate your weenie wet bulb temp, just add 2 degrees to the dew and drop the temp a degree, and continue to do that until they are equal. It's a pretty good rule of thumb.

i.e. 40/30 -> 39/32 -> 38/34 -> 37/36

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Can hear the wind already. Didn’t think it would be gusting to 30 already. 

It's really our preferred wind direction. As much as we love to remember to screaming southeasters, it's the east/northeast that overperform modeling.

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Upstream observation. Snowing in Toronto. Started around 8:00. My son seemed to think there was virga being shown by the lights of the CN Tower. There are advisories for 10-20cm of snow about 20-25 miles southwest of here, 5-10cm here in the city. Lucky me, I miss out in the good stuff here and back at home in VT. :(  It’s cool to see it snow from the 21st floor in a big city though. 34f right now. 

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12 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

It's really our preferred wind direction. As much as we love to remember to screaming southeasters, it's the east/northeast that overperform modeling.

Yep. We do ‘em well.

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42 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Can hear the wind already. Didn’t think it would be gusting to 30 already. 

Eric Fisher said the tide was already 1ft above the forecast and that the storm surge was building. Good chance I lose power. Plymouth and Sandwich coast looks to get annihilated. Was listening to people on plum island say they weren't evacuating. I don't have a good feeling at all.

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1 minute ago, #NoPoles said:

Eric Fisher said the tide was already 1ft above the forecast and that the storm surge was building. Good chance I lose power. Plymouth and Sandwich coast looks to get annihilated. Was listening to people on plum island say they weren't evacuating. I don't have a good feeling at all.

This is going to be a big time coastal flood event. The erosion is going to be significant.

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Light snow, 31° F. A fresh coating on the ground and it's blowing around a bit. It's interesting that ALB is cooler than PSF right now. Northerly cold drain down the Hudson in ALB, while PSF downslopes with an E wind. Go figure.

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3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

There is a warm surge around midday before the thermals collapse.

Expecting it. GFS had surface temps in mid 40's at surface here in Lowell. I just figured I'd start as rain and wouldn't see a flip until late afternoon/early evening. 38.7/33

 

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4 minutes ago, snowgeek said:

Dumping here.  Ground whitened up really fast.  34.9/31F.  Big fat flakes!!!

That was not modeled on either the NAM or the GFS at this time period.

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