JC-CT Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 1 minute ago, dryslot said: Probably could find a member or two of the EPS members to match this. congrats you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 Just now, dryslot said: Probably could find a member or two of the EPS members to match this. like another ENS member, those solutions are indeed shown. I agree with Jay about the running out LPs being whack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I agree with The Hoth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 Just now, sbos_wx said: It actually moves NW from the benchmark on this GFS run. I don't have any specific examples, but it seems we often see this several days away. The models tend to focus too much on the secondary's convection. The central low pressure that develops as the secondary is almost always west of these runs several days out. Pretty much convective feedback, I guess? (I've never fully understood the exact definition of convective feedback, always been shrouded in mystery) Convective feedback in essence is the model's attempt to reduce instability in the atmosphere. Because most global models have a grid scale that is too large to model convection directly, they must parameterize it. Poor convective parameterization can lead to runaway convection and overly active cyclogenesis. That would be convective feedback. Good parameterization leads to a more realistic reduction in atmosphere instability, and thus reduced convective feedback. Of course, in a sense convective feedback does occur naturally. Large areas of convection will result in lower surface pressures and changes in sub-synoptic circulation. But in the true sense, convective feedback is runaway convective processes (i.e. big QPF dumps) in the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: like another ENS member, those solutions are indeed shown. I agree with Jay about the running out LPs being whack Several go ape sh it on the EPS down in that mb range so they would end up further NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 2 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Really though, these things have a certain evolution in the long range, then in the mid range that evolution changes again, and then it continues to change until we get within 2-3 days because that's when the models start to have a reasonable amount of skill. It almost never goes back to the "original" solution but that doesn't mean it can't evolve into a better solution again. We always remember the ones that were, but just as many evolve into thin air. Yeah, that's true, but often the ones that devolve entirely are modeled in broader regimes that don't argue for higher end outcomes. This pattern has a higher top-end threshold than normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: ? You positive guy, thats all. It’s a compliment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 I haven't seen too many off the deep end... better than usual given the unsavory trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 1 minute ago, Hoth said: Yeah, that's true, but often the ones that devolve entirely are modeled in broader regimes that don't argue for higher end outcomes. This pattern has a higher top-end threshold than normal. That is true as well. Just making the point about expecting solutions to "come back" isn't realistic the majority of the time. I do, however, agree with the points being made that models, the GFS in particular, struggle with high levels of convection that can occur in scenarios like this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I haven't seen too many off the deep end... better than usual given the unsavory trends. Ray Blog tonight? Do you still like where your sitting. despite most recent trend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 Lol...they’re gonna make you work Ray Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: You positive guy, thats all. It’s a compliment. I guess I should have been more clear earlier. I view run-to-run negativity as 'bridge jumping', but we're not exactly talking about a concept that has an exact definition. The most important concept in modeling really boils down to a few things. One of them being the ability to harmonize model skill, noise, climatology, analogs, and experience into one overall picture. I'm not even saying I can do that. But cutting out negative posts tends to make for a healthier hobby. Not saying it's easy. Not saying I've mastered any of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 So we should all just post like Metfan then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 4 minutes ago, sbos_wx said: I guess I should have been more clear earlier. I view run-to-run negativity as 'bridge jumping', but we're not exactly talking about a concept that has an exact definition. The most important concept in modeling really boils down to a few things. One of them being the ability to harmonize model skill, noise, climatology, analogs, and experience into one overall picture. I'm not even saying I can do that. But cutting out negative posts tends to make for a healthier hobby. Not saying it's easy. Not saying I've mastered any of this. Fair enough sir, all good. But nothing wrong with a little persona in posting. Its what makes this place more enjoyable...you learn and laugh, at the same dam time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 5 minutes ago, JC-CT said: So we should all just post like Metfan then. I don't know but I'm really excited to see how the GEFS trend. Meteorology is one big ensemble run! Hopefully the mean is in our favor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Fair enough sir, all good. But nothing wrong with a little persona in posting. Its what makes this place more enjoyable...you learn and laugh, at the same dam time. Precisely. It's what the other subforums lack. Maybe I was hallucinating a bit, and my 4th 16 hour work day is getting to me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 Luckily I checked out mentally from this winter a while back. Just going to prepare the basement pump for the rain soaked lion to march in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 6 minutes ago, JC-CT said: So we should all just post like Metfan then. I think he means like Tip but without the psychoanlysis of human behavior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I think he means like Tip but without the psychoanlysis of human behavior. We should all post like Katodog imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 1 minute ago, Cold Miser said: Luckily I checked out mentally from this winter a while back. Just going to prepare the basement pump for the rain soaked lion to march in. You Always good for a jump. thanks for ruining my point that nobody has today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 2 minutes ago, Cold Miser said: Luckily I checked out mentally from this winter a while back. Just going to prepare the basement pump for the rain soaked lion to march in. LOL right on time. Garttttthhhhhhhhhhh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 7 minutes ago, sbos_wx said: Precisely. It's what the other subforums lack. Maybe I was hallucinating a bit, and my 4th 16 hour work day is getting to me... Can we get some cheese with this whine? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 7 minutes ago, Cold Miser said: Luckily I checked out mentally from this winter a while back. Just going to prepare the basement pump for the rain soaked lion to march in. How does one prepare a basement pump?, do you talk to it and say be kind to me old boy your work load is going to get very long? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 19 minutes ago, JC-CT said: So we should all just post like Metfan James then. Fixed it for you. Can't get much more positive than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 I'm actually fairly optimistic about this one. I'm also in a decent spot on the east slopes near the pike too...but even for areas like Kevin and maybe Ginxy I'd be cautiously optimistic. The thing to watch for is the phasing obviously, but also look out for subtle changes in the block and our big system coming ashore in the PAC NW behind this one too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: How does one prepare a basement pump?, do you talk to it and say be kind to me old boy your work load is going to get very long? Post of the day!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: I'm actually fairly optimistic about this one. I'm also in a decent spot on the east slopes near the pike too...but even for areas like Kevin and maybe Ginxy I'd be cautiously optimistic. The thing to watch for is the phasing obviously, but also look out for subtle changes in the block and our big system coming ashore in the PAC NW behind this one too. Oh I’m very confident on a good snowstorm in the hills out of this. Sure it’ll start as rain, but the hills at least ckuid really rip. My gut says even valleys get a good fall as the ccb parks itself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Oh I’m very confident on a good snowstorm in the hills out of this. Sure it’ll start as rain, but the hills at least ckuid really rip. My gut says even valleys get a good fall as the ccb parks itself Gave up on the shunted train already? I thought you jumped back on at 12z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 I’m selling on anything sizable (ie 12” or more) for SNE It’s a gamble to be sure, but one I am willing to take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 52 minutes ago, 512high said: Ray Blog tonight? Do you still like where your sitting. despite most recent trend? Tomorrow night. I still like the idea of a big event...but we should know one way or another tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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