blizzard24 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 upper low will be south of sne are just south of long island area . all of inland sne area will have snow . boston national weather service is slow and in for surprise if they dont put watches up soon for inland sne area for winter storm . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Just now, CT Rain said: We're totally on our own with this one compared to the NWS and other local stations. Seriously though, love how you put CT-74 just outside the 6-12" range. I dare you to claim it wasn't intentional. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Just now, blizzard24 said: upper low will be south of sne are just south of long island area . all of inland sne area will have snow . boston national weather service is slow and in for surprise if they dont put watches up soon for inland sne area for winter storm . And you aren't going to waiver with every model run. Amiright? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 3 minutes ago, CT Rain said: We're totally on our own with this one compared to the NWS and other local stations. Eric Fisher in Boston going with something that would match somewhat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 8 minutes ago, JC-CT said: That it doesn't snow at 40F surface temps. This is wild though. You really don't get it, huh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 7 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Because, they aren't 7 degrees too warm. This isn't a CAD situation. The airmass sucks. Congrats you, under 800' we rain. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 3 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Seriously though, love how you put CT-74 just outside the 6-12" range. I dare you to claim it wasn't intentional. I swear. You don’t know where Tolland is. He even texted us hours ago it pained him to put Tolland it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 minute ago, sbos_wx said: You really don't get it, huh This event has been tough on him.,.hes trying real hard to prove snow weenies wrong but keeps butt fumbling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 6 minutes ago, CT Rain said: We're totally on our own with this one compared to the NWS and other local stations. Your buddy Fish has same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 2 minutes ago, sbos_wx said: You really don't get it, huh No I don't I must be bridge jumping Explain it to everyone why surface temps should immediately crash even though 850s are marginal and the surface is torched. Then, copy and paste it into an email and send it over the good folks at BOX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 9 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Because, they aren't 7 degrees too warm. This isn't a CAD situation. The airmass sucks. Congrats you, under 800' we rain. So in heavy precipitation you’re ok with a temperature of 40 and dew of 31? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: This event has been tough on him.,.hes trying real hard to prove snow weenies wrong but keeps butt fumbling. JC-CT's hobby is modelogy not meteorology Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 4 minutes ago, wxsniss said: Yeah 18z RGEM shows potential if the multiple low centers consolidate on the one closest to benchmark... prolonged and intense into eastern SNE Those thermal profiles though, wth... I can picture us all glued to the windows Friday afternoon (hopefully earlier) watching for signs of mix... I suspect you're going to see the thermal profile cool if we keep seeing mid-level temps below 0C with extreme precip...some models embrace the latent cooling a bit more in the lower levels and others don't seem to want to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 minute ago, weathafella said: So in heavy precipitation you’re ok with a temperature of 40 and dew of 31? a) its not going to be heavy all the time everywhere and that might wet bulb to 34-35? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 3 minutes ago, sbos_wx said: JC-CT's hobby is modelogy not meteorology bridge jumper extraordinaire Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Kevin, look at 84 please. You need to learn where you live. If he said you were included, he had a good laugh about it after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redmorninglight Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Feeling pretty ok about my choice to snowboard Mt Snow Fri-Sun. Anyone have any opinions about how they might fare? ski areas seem snow starved. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Ryan,good map. Thumbs up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 4 minutes ago, JC-CT said: No I don't I must be bridge jumping Explain it to everyone why surface temps should immediately crash even though 850s are marginal and the surface is torched. Then, copy and paste it into an email and send it over the good folks at BOX. I'm on mobile and about to walk into work. I'm sure people here will explain. Although you post daily and it's been explained numerous times this week. There are a lot of trials and tribulations when it comes to storms, and this hobby. Learning opportunities. I can tell you first hand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Just now, JC-CT said: Kevin, look at 84 please. You need to learn where you live. If he said you were included, he had a good laugh about it after. Right under his 6-12”. Thanks for clarifying. Enjoy your snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Right under his 6-12”. Thanks for clarifying. Enjoy your snow If I didn't include him it was unintentional. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I swear. You don’t know where Tolland is. He even texted us hours ago it pained him to put Tolland it Isn't Tolland where I-84 levels out there for a bit before it heads back NE? Not that it matters as Ryan is obviously highlighting the high terrain in NE CT (its clear what he's trying to show viewers), its just funny if you aren't really sure where your town is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Mic drop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southshorewx Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Bouchard "fire hose " of rain. A ground hog would be just as useful as these flip flopping models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 minute ago, CT Rain said: If I didn't include him it was unintentional. Fantastic map man... I'm sure your viewers will appreciate it after the fact when they see the NWS forecast right now and what happens in the next 48-72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 19 minutes ago, CT Rain said: We're totally on our own with this one compared to the NWS and other local stations. Your map looks similar to Channel 4 in Boston's map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 If we continue to weaken the primary tonight, we strengthen snow totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 23 minutes ago, powderfreak said: The Catskills are going to get destroyed. Feet for those hill towns at 2,000ft there SW of ALB. They won't lose any to rain, IMO. Should start as pretty much snow there in the high terrain of NY. Agreed. The same thing happened in March 10. 40”+ above 2k. what are your thoughts for the southern greens? Im thinking a foot is a good call for Stratton/mt snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 I'm a little surprised even BOX's 10% high end chance map is <1'' of snow for most inside 495. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 I wouldn't under-sell the elevational aspect of this event either... I think everyone goes to heavy snow if that firehose develops as modeled BUT there's a big difference between 34F pounding snow and 31F pounding snow. Sure they both will accumulate but one is going to be a heck of a lot more efficient. I could see DIT or 1,000ft elevations doing 1"/hr snowfall at 31-32F while places under 500ft are doing a half inch per hour (on 0.1" liquid in the tipper per hour) at 34F. That type of difference adds up throughout an event like this with big QPF. Something where the top of Blue Hill has twice as much as anyone else in E.MA just because of the extra 500ft of elevation and temps there just that extra 1C cooler, aiding in accumulation processes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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