February is upon us - pattern change is in order

[MJO812]

10 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Disgusting for February

[HoarfrostHubb]

2 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Disgusting for February

It happened last Feb as well, just a few days later

[ORH_wxman]

Close the shades until further notice. SE ridge is destroying us. Hopefully it gets beat down a little more than the EPS is showing and then we can get something in here, but otherwise this is an amplified La Niña February SE ridge onslaught. 

[Damage In Tolland]

26 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Kind of a bold statement to make on 2/11

I don’t really think so. It looks horrific right thru day 15. That’s the 26th. If that look holds CNE, SNE likely are snowless thru then with 2 days to go till spring. At that point by the way, we will mainly all be BN in snowfall 

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I don’t really think so. It looks horrific right thru day 15. That’s the 26th. If that look holds CNE, SNE likely are snowless thru then with 2 days to go till spring. At that point by the way, we will mainly all be BN in snowfall 

Well pattern is terrible, but it’s not impossible to sneak something in. It just won’t last lol.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Well pattern is terrible, but it’s impossible to sneak something in. It just won’t last lol.

When I see Will post what he did .. the prognosticator of positive... I know what it means 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

When I see Will post what he did .. the prognosticator of positive... I know what it means 

LOL well pattern has sucked for awhile now. I look forward to more EPS bar graphs for Moose knuckle Maine though. 

[moneypitmike]

With most/all of the snow gone before the warmth sets in, the modeled tropics are more likely to manifest.

34.6*

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

LOL well pattern has sucked for awhile now. I look forward to more EPS bar graphs for Moose knuckle Maine though. 

We discussed this I recall earlier in the season.. but that ugly analog of 1989 was always there rearing it’s ugly head. Maybe Ray and Ginx and Isotherm are right and Morch will rock, but I have a bad feeling 89 just walked in the door 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

We discussed this I recall earlier in the season.. but that ugly analog of 1989 was always there rearing it’s ugly head. Maybe Ray and Ginx and Isotherm are right and Morch will rock, but I have a bad feeling 89 just walked in the door 

After the most hyped split ever, the vortex looks to regain itself again. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

After the most hyped split ever, the vortex looks to regain itself again. 

voodoo.

[Baroclinic Zone]

11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

LOL well pattern has sucked for awhile now. I look forward to more EPS bar graphs for Moose knuckle Maine though. 

Perhaps the b-day hallucinogenics have worn off today?  

Funny thing is, I'm not complaining or whining.  Just stating the obvious on what's transpired and what is to come.

Agree a sneaky event could occur around next weekend but odds are not in favor of it. 

That's a pig of a SE ridge that is dominating the pattern.

Only hope to beat that down is to relocate the PV further south in Hudson Bay rather than closer to the NP.

[ORH_wxman]

There's actually a lot of similarities to the pattern from Feb 1989. 

Big neg EPO and cold into Canada and central/western uS but we just get stuck with the SE ridge. 

[ORH_wxman]

We can sometimes work with a SE ridge. Some of our best periods have had one (think of some of the classic gradient patterns we've had), but this one is too amped for us as of now. It could def change...but until it does, we're cooked. 

[moneypitmike]

early lawn cleanups en route.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Tanning thy napes on Feb 21st.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Perhaps the b-day hallucinogenics have worn off today?  

Funny thing is, I'm not complaining or whining.  Just stating the obvious on what's transpired and what is to come.

Agree a sneaky event could occur around next weekend but odds are not in favor of it. 

That's a pig of a SE ridge that is dominating the pattern.

Only hope to beat that down is to relocate the PV further south in Hudson Bay rather than closer to the NP.

Don't worry, the PV will drop S and the -NAO will manifest in April and May. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Don't worry, the PV will drop S and the -NAO will manifest in April and May. 

Perfect pattern for green up.  Moist and cool.

[Dan76]

Rockin' april may great

[Damage In Tolland]

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

There's actually a lot of similarities to the pattern from Feb 1989. 

Big neg EPO and cold into Canada and central/western uS but we just get stuck with the SE ridge. 

Yup.. that’s exactly what I was looking at. Congrats Montana to Denver rest of winter. 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yup.. that’s exactly what I was looking at. Congrats Montana to Denver rest of winter. 

You were thinking of Dec 89 to 90 flip. Congrats James if Feb 89 happens.

[Rtd208]

I predict a 9" inch rainstorm w/60 mph winds in March in a boxing match between the -NAO and the SE ridge.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

70 would be awesome next week. Get out and enjoy it.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

70 would be awesome next week. Get out and enjoy it.

Probably won’t be, but the euro was very warm verbatim. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

lol, ssw ftl. If it is happenning in the strat which smarter guys know more than me...i believe it...but it is doing zero to produce a favorable ao/nao when it matters most, garbage. Im done tracking. Something pops in March ill enjoy it but this is trash right now. But hey, a cool and rainy spring with cutoffs is pretty much gtd, prepare now. 

Sorry Ginxy, I’m not snowshowing in Caribou enough to put lipstick on how terrible winter has been imby since Jan 5th. Now Feb is shot, its done. One month of cold with penny events topped off by one good 11” storm is not memorable nor enjoyable.

Me and Icey1872 gonna go do keg stands now. Bring on spring.

[Sugarloaf1989]

Depressing talk of winter being over, Bah humbug. Friday had some of the best skiing of the season. 30" of snow here this season with two ice storms. Plenty of winter left for those who know where to find it.

[dendrite]

There’s actually +15C 850s over SE MA late Fri morning on the euro. Cray.

btw...sorry Eek.

[NorEastermass128]

We nape.  

I recall low 80s in VA around mid Feb last year...new February annual steroidal thaw regime?

[J Paul Gordon]

14 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Seems must be deceiving then because the opposite is true...

So far, January is essentially within decimals of dead nuts normal at both ORH and HFD, and so far the first 10 days of February are -2 at both..

 

Goes to show you that sensible weather is as much a matter of perception as it is of "reality". If the ground is brown or barely white, for us snow lovers, it isn't "wintry" (barring a minus 20F windchill). If I were in the Berks or up here in southern Maine, I'm sure I would have concluded that we've had a better than average winter. Welcome to the quantum world if a weather weenie.

Schrodinger put a cat in a box with a vial of poison that would be released at some random time. Is the cat dead or alive? The quantum factor is that until the box is open the answer is both/neither (the quantum factor). Once the box is opened everything collapses into the singular state of dead or alive. Likewise, weather: has this  been a normal to cold winter? Once you give me the data I have to conclude that it has been. The snow factor, likewise. And it is all dependent on when the proverbial box is opened. In other words, the same question asked a month from now may be answered very differently. 

So much for philosophy. Any significant cold/snow on the horizon?

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Sucks we get that while I'm away, but better that than a HECS.