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February is upon us - pattern change is in order


Baroclinic Zone

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3 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

You also said it was going to snow this weekend back on Monday...and that was only 6 days away..and that’s not gonna happen now...so 3-4 weeks from now is certainly not destined to be warm and no snow.  I’d reserve my call on that if I were you.

Well, it might snow on Friday afternoon and evening so that is technically the weekend.  Models are still a at odds if it is only NNE or we also get 1-2" into parts of SNE.

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3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Should be awesome with two kids stuck inside. Epic pattern change.

As long as they're not watching things like Barney videos (do kids still watch that??) you'll keep your sanity.

Meanwhile, we'll hope for more winter in spite of what looks like a terrible way to run a February.

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Granted a couple mild days next week...but from GYX this sounds nice:

The deterministic model solutions remain in good agreement on
the long wave pattern through late next week. We begin the
period with a broad trough across the CONUS and an upper ridge
over the eastern Pacific northward into Alaska. Pacific energy
begins to break down the upper ridge while broad troughing
continues downstream over much of the CONUS this forecast
period. While the western ridge will weaken an upper low will
remain in place over Hudson Bay with a series of shortwave
impulses pivoting around this semipermanent feature. This parade
of impulses will bring a series of disturbances to the area
followed by periodic shots of colder air. There are signs that
the upper low may deliver a more significant arctic blast to New
England by late next week. 
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Hope the 06z GFS ends up right for next week. That's a scooter fetish high around D7.

 

EPS does support some gradient and an absolutely Siberian frigid airmass in eastern Canada around that time and a bit beyond...so there is an outside shot we could get in on something.

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