February is upon us - pattern change is in order

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

12z GFS added some to the idea of a durational light icing event from Satu- Mon

Do you mean NNE?

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Do you mean NNE?

afraid to answer on the grounds that no matter what is said ... it will be spun and junked into something i did not say... 

[powderfreak]

Nice to see the EURO keeps us North of the boundary this weekend.  Few inches of snow here and there Fri-Sun.

[Damage In Tolland]

9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

afraid to answer on the grounds that no matter what is said ... it will be spun and junked into something i did not say... 

Oh ok 

[qg_omega]

7 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Nice to see the EURO keeps us North of the boundary this weekend.  Few inches of snow here and there Fri-Sun.

looks like a few inches for dacks to NNE friday to sunday, right?

[OSUmetstud]

Awful.  

 

[EastonSN+]

The ecmwf MJO, negative EPO, POTENTIAL negative NAO and negative AO shown below is a good sign IF the models are correct. 17th onward time to watch:

[mreaves]

10 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Awful.  

 

Wow.  I guess I didn't realize it had been so bad up there.

[Hazey]

8 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Awful.  

 

Big finish to ease the pain? You still  have 3+ months of winter up there.

Good news is they will probably not go through this again for another 40 years.

[Typhoon Tip]

6 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

The ecmwf MJO, negative EPO, POTENTIAL negative NAO and negative AO shown below is a good sign IF the models are correct. 17th onward time to watch:

 

not speaking to the MJO but the problem with those others is that they have been flipping signs out in time like every three or four days

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

not speaking to the MJO but the problem with those others is that they have been flipping signs out in time like every three or four days

Agreed. Just searching for the light at the end of the tunnel. Hopefully it holds this time. 

[OSUmetstud]

17 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

The ecmwf MJO, negative EPO, POTENTIAL negative NAO and negative AO shown below is a good sign IF the models are correct. 17th onward time to watch:

There's a lot of troughing in ak Kamchatka and the Bering in the extended probably. So even though the Ao is neg the pattern doesn't look great for snow in the east. 

[SnowGoose69]

10 days ago the models basically showed the AO being that negative TODAY

[EastonSN+]

Now I'm really depressed. Is there any hope in the extended?

[OSUmetstud]

22 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

10 days ago the models basically showed the AO being that negative TODAY

I don't think that's true.  The ao going negative seems in pretty good concert with the Strat warm event that's clearly going to happen. The strong gradient pattern currently occuring was pretty well progged in advance I think. I think the southeast ridge ended up being stronger than many were hoping for and the PV didn't press in as much like earlier in the winter.  

[OSUmetstud]

The gefs always like long range AOs and has had a strong negative bias this winter but the EPS had like several days of -2 stdev ao in the 10 to 15 day and that usually more meaningful.  

[SnowGoose69]

31 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Now I'm really depressed. Is there any hope in the extended?

I think we may go into some sort of ugly ass -NAO blocked up borderline zonal pattern.  One where the mean ridging is out west and troughing in the east but not a ton of cold air around because you don’t sustain western riding for any long period.  The possibility may exist though for something major if it can manufacture its own cold air

[EastonSN+]

12 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I think we may go into some sort of ugly ass -NAO blocked up borderline zonal pattern.  One where the mean ridging is out west and troughing in the east but not a ton of cold air around because you don’t sustain western riding for any long period.  The possibility may exist though for something major if it can manufacture its own cold air

Thanks. I have a hard time believing we get completely shut out though March, even if its a thread the needle event or a follow up wave.

[EastonSN+]

42 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

The gefs always like long range AOs and has had a strong negative bias this winter but the EPS had like several days of -2 stdev ao in the 10 to 15 day and that usually more meaningful.  

Where can I find the EPS teleconnections?

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

Thanks. I have a hard time believing we get completely shut out though March, even if its a thread the needle event or a follow up wave.

The end of the month into March looks very good

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

The end of the month into March looks very good

Don’t agree . That time period may be very mild. At least the Morch part . It’s possible there’s a wintry period Feb 16-24

[Typhoon Tip]

I realize I mentioned the SSW a couple days ago but ... I should mention ...  there are warming intervals at pressure depth on-going, but it is yet to determine if they are of the downwelling variety.

The correlation with subsequent -AO is a lag on the order of two to three weeks when looking since 1978 and active monitoring, and comparing to -AO intervals.  

So present stratospheric warming and the -AO isn't really a slam dunk yet. 

Propagating versus non-propagating warm intrusion events, left to right respectively:

And also... the correlation isn't very obvious if there are other things going on in that are compensating/physically more dominating.. The data set is less that 1::1 CC

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Don’t agree . That time period may be very mild. At least the Morch part . It’s possible there’s a wintry period Feb 16-24

I strongly disagree.

 

https://www.nymetroweather.com/2018/02/07/high-latitude-blocking-key-late-february-forecast/

[40/70 Benchmark]

I don't mean to imply that its a lock because it isn't, but I'll be surprised if it fails and we skunk the rest of the way.

Def. premature to call a Morch...JMHO.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

10 days ago the models basically showed the AO being that negative TODAY

Considering that there was no impetus for that it should have been perceived as erroneous and premature, as it was by many of us.

There is certainly a potential "smoking gun" this go around.

[weathafella]

Is March 1960 about to walk in?

[ORH_wxman]

22 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Is March 1960 about to walk in?

I'd love a nice juicy March bowling ball. Haven't had one in a while. Mar 2013 was prob the last one in the firehouse event. Doesn't even have to be that prolific. Just a good high end warning event with good rates from an awesome ULL. The kind where it's 44F the day before and people don't know what's about to hit them. 

[WinterWolf]

2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Don’t agree . That time period may be very mild. At least the Morch part . It’s possible there’s a wintry period Feb 16-24

You also said it was going to snow this weekend back on Monday...and that was only 6 days away..and that’s not gonna happen now...so 3-4 weeks from now is certainly not destined to be warm and no snow.  I’d reserve my call on that if I were you.

[SnowHole413]

I’m still expecting the end of February and all of March to go either way honestly. I can’t say anyone here knows exactly what will happen when the PV splits. Models are too volatile to give anyone accurate answers during events like this. All I know is that everyone on this forum should be ready for some wild surprises, whether that’s a torch for the rest of winter or an extremely snowy and cold ending. 

[weathafella]

58 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'd love a nice juicy March bowling ball. Haven't had one in a while. Mar 2013 was prob the last one in the firehouse event. Doesn't even have to be that prolific. Just a good high end warning event with good rates from an awesome ULL. The kind where it's 44F the day before and people don't know what's about to hit them. 

I’ll tell the story again....

A sub par winter featured an unusually strong cold front in the final day or 2 of February.   I remember my mother driving me home from some after school activity wth the sky having that typical immediately post fropa scud blowing around.   I honestly remember thinking the cold is too late with no snow on the way.  About 2 days later heavy snow warnings were up.    Friday 3/3 delivered one of the great blizzards of the 20th century.   The month of March was full on winter!   The following winter was one of the all timers.