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February is upon us - pattern change is in order


Baroclinic Zone

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7 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Big changes in the 00z GFS and ECM... keeps us all snow through the weekend now in the mountains of NNE.

BTV AFD knows where our priorities are at.  It's all about the skiing and riding.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 208 AM EST Wednesday...Why not keep the parade of snow events going until further notice and continue to improve on the snow depths, especially across the mountains.

 

Nice, they know the real deal.

 

hashtagnice.jpg

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6 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

The ecmwf MJO, negative EPO, POTENTIAL negative NAO and negative AO shown below is a good sign IF the models are correct. 17th onward time to watch:

 

not speaking to the MJO but the problem with those others is that they have been flipping signs out in time like every three or four days

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17 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

The ecmwf MJO, negative EPO, POTENTIAL negative NAO and negative AO shown below is a good sign IF the models are correct. 17th onward time to watch:

4indices.thumb.png.68084af5107a7b276abdde89432dbac6.png

ao.sprd2.thumb.gif.ff644c6cff99c9143c168b2dc81426f9.gif

ECMF_phase_51m_full.gif.82743d23f39882d4b450bad8577b7b3b.gif

There's a lot of troughing in ak Kamchatka and the Bering in the extended probably. So even though the Ao is neg the pattern doesn't look great for snow in the east. 

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22 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

10 days ago the models basically showed the AO being that negative TODAY

I don't think that's true.  The ao going negative seems in pretty good concert with the Strat warm event that's clearly going to happen. The strong gradient pattern currently occuring was pretty well progged in advance I think. I think the southeast ridge ended up being stronger than many were hoping for and the PV didn't press in as much like earlier in the winter.  

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31 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Now I'm really depressed. Is there any hope in the extended?

I think we may go into some sort of ugly ass -NAO blocked up borderline zonal pattern.  One where the mean ridging is out west and troughing in the east but not a ton of cold air around because you don’t sustain western riding for any long period.  The possibility may exist though for something major if it can manufacture its own cold air

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12 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I think we may go into some sort of ugly ass -NAO blocked up borderline zonal pattern.  One where the mean ridging is out west and troughing in the east but not a ton of cold air around because you don’t sustain western riding for any long period.  The possibility may exist though for something major if it can manufacture its own cold air

Thanks. I have a hard time believing we get completely shut out though March, even if its a thread the needle event or a follow up wave.

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I realize I mentioned the SSW a couple days ago but ... I should mention ...  there are warming intervals at pressure depth on-going, but it is yet to determine if they are of the downwelling variety.

The correlation with subsequent -AO is a lag on the order of two to three weeks when looking since 1978 and active monitoring, and comparing to -AO intervals.  

So present stratospheric warming and the -AO isn't really a slam dunk yet. 

Propagating versus non-propagating warm intrusion events, left to right respectivelySSWp.jpg.7bcf9dbd45f0e001ac646fcce5b6bcad.jpg:

And also... the correlation isn't very obvious if there are other things going on in that are compensating/physically more dominating.. The data set is less that 1::1 CC

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4 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

10 days ago the models basically showed the AO being that negative TODAY

Considering that there was no impetus for that it should have been perceived as erroneous and premature, as it was by many of us.

There is certainly a potential "smoking gun" this go around.

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22 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Is March 1960 about to walk in?

I'd love a nice juicy March bowling ball. Haven't had one in a while. Mar 2013 was prob the last one in the firehouse event. Doesn't even have to be that prolific. Just a good high end warning event with good rates from an awesome ULL. The kind where it's 44F the day before and people don't know what's about to hit them. 

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