mreaves Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 29 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Congrats to the moose. We fart! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Maybe you guys can fart a little more this weekend push that system Southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 18 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I’ve been less than impressed with the look for SNE for days now. Just doesn’t look favorable for much more than a mixed bag at best. yeah, this winter has been weak sauce except for December cold and some snow.. not looking good next 10 days right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Those that went with the idea of a BN to N snowfall year and nickel and dime events vs big coastals seem to have done much better . We had 1 marginal at best KU, and that will be it. Hopefully SNE can gin up another storm or 2 in the 18-24th period before the pattern flips warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Models try to drop another 1-2" Friday night then are a in a little less agreement in the longer range, pattern still looks active. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Hard to find a silver-lining for next 7 days for winter weather enthusiasts...Looks like the worst combination of teleconncections this season. Peak Climo, so ski resorts in NNE can still cash in on a small event, or two but the rest of us are likely SOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 3 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Models try to drop another 1-2" Friday night then are a in a little less agreement in the longer range, pattern still looks active. Active for rains to...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 3 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Hard to find a silver-lining for next 7 days for winter weather enthusiasts...Looks like the worst combination of teleconncections this season. Peak Climo, so ski resorts in NNE can still cash in on a small event, or two but the rest of us are likely SOL. how about end of feb/early march anything long range we have any better chance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 4 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Hard to find a silver-lining for next 7 days for winter weather enthusiasts...Looks like the worst combination of teleconncections this season. Peak Climo, so ski resorts in NNE can still cash in on a small event, or two but the rest of us are likely SOL. Unfortunately many of us ski the CNE resorts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 29 minutes ago, 512high said: how about end of feb/early march anything long range we have any better chance? Pattern looks MUCH better around day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 1 minute ago, jbenedet said: Pattern looks MUCH better around day 10. thanks good call on todays map.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 13 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Pattern looks MUCH better around day 10. On th me Euro it sure does. Not the GFS. The GFS has had a much stronger SER Days 7-14 than the Euro has Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 10 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: On th me Euro it sure does. Not the GFS. The GFS has had a much stronger SER Days 7-14 than the Euro has Not using op runs beyond day 7. 6z GEFS H5 matches up quite well with EPS around day 10; 6z GEPS as well. That time frame also appears to coincide with a another shift in the teleconnections. Current Risk imo is that the pattern shift is transient, and it will only be a 2-3 day window . We'll see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Friday through Sunday doesn't exactly look spring-like, either. In fact, the general complexion of the synoptic story-line across those days gives the impression that some icy/mix and snow (light) N, to perhaps ice in NW CT- to interior S. NH could transpire and perhaps over the duration, too. A lot of if is going to come down to the precise PP perturbation/layout from Ohio to VT--..ME ... The boundary is pretty much stationary with some tendency to warm intrusion from the south, but... it's not obvious. The flow really is parallel to that baroclinic access, and whenever we find that you run risk of cool profiles wedging at lower levels and probably if not likely any said warmth delayed. I wouldn't be swayed by the "as is" look at any given cycle. I'm more interested in the general appeal of a boundary extending roughly from the western TV to the MA region, attempting to lift slowly N over a two to three day span...with QPF being painted during marginal low level thicknesses. Something to keep an eye on... Other than that... yeah, Scott's right that the original favorable appeal for February set sail... In fact, that ship's been gone long enough that the harbor had returned to placid reflections under a tepid sky ...and may even be rejostled now by some newer rendition of affairs for this month. The GEFs ... completely different teleconnector spread at CDC for example. The PNA was going to be very positive with a neutral EPO... Now, the PNA is very negative at that source, with the EPO slightly negative but probably not because of a legit blocking ridge up there - more because the -PNA is pulling that domain space down a bit. Which is code for probably a warm signal squirting own stream across the U.S. ...The Euro? Man, like 6 of the next 10 days the 850 mb 0C isotherm is abeam or N of our latitude ... It's odd, too, because the glanced appeal of charts still shows a deep gyre whirling about N James Bay, with some semblance of ridging in the 100 - 130 W longitudes. Yet, the model insists spring has sprung in the 37th parallel. interesting... But, the culprit appears to be an abundance of higher heights over the SW Atlantic Basic/Caribbean ...extending through the Gulf, Old Mexico, and constructed right into the west coast ridge...all of which are in above normal geopotential heights. That's in part the gradient being too steep for one..but, all we're doing is biding time for this vortex over JB to fill a bit and well.. maybe that's the La Nina early spring? Hard to say but, that's getting way ahead. As for these first two or so weeks of February... we were betrayed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 40 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: On th me Euro it sure does. Not the GFS. The GFS has had a much stronger SER Days 7-14 than the Euro has Who uses the long range GFS? You should know better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Overnight guidance really cooled things back down over NNE for this weekend...maybe the Euro medium range will be right after all? Figures it would right after it caved yesterday, lol. We'll see...models are really struggling with the strong PV to the north and the SE ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 23 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Overnight guidance really cooled things back down over NNE for this weekend...maybe the Euro medium range will be right after all? Figures it would right after it caved yesterday, lol. We'll see...models are really struggling with the strong PV to the north and the SE ridge. Can we get that to move more favorably for SNE for snow or ice this weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Can we get that to move more favorably for SNE for snow or ice this weekend? Outside chance we could...but we may be just too far south. Best chance is the typical spots like N ORH county to GC for those in SNE. If we're playing devils advocate here, the best way would be to shove the boundary a bit east and get a wave along it for Sunday that passes to our SE. That's plausible, but still unlikely it gets far enough SE for us in SNE. Like here is the EPS last night...you see the how the boundary at the surface is pointing right into S Maine...if we can get that pointing more towards James Nichols instead, then we could have a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 1 hour ago, jbenedet said: Pattern looks MUCH better around day 10. It always does, and it's always 10 days away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 6 minutes ago, #NoPoles said: It always does, and it's always 10 days away Not always true. I’ll take my chances with the good ensemble agreement—in general— at day 10, but not much beyond that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 This weekend has cooled off even down here into the coastal plain, Looks like a 2-4" on Friday into Saturday with lighter precip as a mix right now on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 34 minutes ago, dryslot said: This weekend has cooled off even down here into the coastal plain, Looks like a 2-4" on Friday into Saturday with lighter precip as a mix right now on Sunday. Keep piling it up bro. It's all about the base. 12Z GFS 10 mb loop is impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Keep piling it up bro. It's all about the base. 12Z GFS 10 mb loop is imptessivw I'm going to be taking full advantage of it this weekend, Smelting friday, Riding Saturday/Sunday, Go Go Go! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 1 hour ago, #NoPoles said: It always does, and it's always 10 days away From a Plymouth perspective, I agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Its funny how I and a few others spent the better part of two weeks trying to stem the tide of the epic February train, now its swung wildly the other way like a GEM flop. We are a week into February, and most are near normal snowfall or above with another event underway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 58 minutes ago, dryslot said: I'm going to be taking full advantage of it this weekend, Smelting friday, Riding Saturday/Sunday, Go Go Go! Heading to the county?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Just now, WinterWolf said: Heading to the county?? Leaving right from here on ITS 87 heading towards Jay/Wilton/Farmington area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 1 minute ago, dryslot said: Leaving right from here on ITS 87 heading towards Jay/Wilton/Farmington area. Oh that’s cool!! Have a good ride and stay safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Just now, WinterWolf said: Oh that’s cool!! Have a good ride and stay safe. Thanks, Its great when you can leave from the door yard to ride. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 1 minute ago, dryslot said: Thanks, Its great when you can leave from the door yard to ride. You smelt fish Jeff? ,Which body of water? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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