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Jan 16/17 light snow event.


clskinsfan

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21 minutes ago, ATreglown said:

I have had no time to pay much attention to this today, work stupid busy. Just curious, has anyone actually looked at radar today to see if how things are going compared to whats being modeled and see which one seems to be doing the best. After all, the mini storm is actually in progress now. 

:unsure:

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8 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

The output display looks odd like that.  Is it human altered I wonder?

I don't think so.  The reason it looks weird is that it's run on a very limited region.  There are currently five of these running over North America.  One is over New England, and another is over Virginia and North Carolina.  The top part of the map is cut off because it's outside the boundary of the Virginia / North Carolina region.

And I think everyone's right.  It's a map of how much liquid that fell would fall in the form of snow.  I agree that the way it's labeled is a little confusing.

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Everyone has their imby glasses on of course. Nam lost mountain shadow finally for the western folks. Bob it appears you won that battle. The surface wave developing off the coast is just enough to change the wind trajectory this run and stop that. That's typically what happens with these. All it takes is some surface reflection. 

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

We might still do ok but it's a shame this is coming trough disjointed. The wave develops east of us with the lead vort. Then the upper level energy splits and the better piece dives under us and comes through behind. If it had been centered over us and one consolidated wave we could have had a nice hit here. Little stuff like a stupid slight out of sync timing can throw the whole thing off. 

And that's always the problem with our location.  Just a little too far south most of the time, just a little too far north some of time, and in just the right spot rarely. 

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Everyone has their imby glasses on of course. Nam lost mountain shadow finally for the western folks. Bob it appears you won that battle. The surface wave developing off the coast is just enough to change the wind trajectory this run and stop that. That's typically what happens with these. All it takes is some surface reflection. 

The NAM comes through for the drought stricken I- 81 crew.

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6 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

It's always been a 1-3 event. And that is what the NAM is showing. It was never going to be a big one.

Yea but that actually gives DCA only .07 qpf and temps aren't that cold so that's probably 1/2" and definitely not 1-3. Verbatim it's coating to 1" along 95. Dusting to a coating southeast. 1-3 northwest. That's pretty meh. But it is much better for you so no shame hugging it. Snow is serious bidniz 

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3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

And that's always the problem with our location.  Just a little too far south most of the time, just a little too far north some of time, and in just the right spot rarely. 

I'm not gonna waste time digging but there was a snow anomaly map for ninas that had the highest negative anomalies right over our area.  Makes sense due to the northern steam dominance and fast progressive flow and lack of phasing that northern stream systems would tend to stay north and southern ones stay south. We're in the dead zone in between. But we make up for it in ninos and some neutrals.

  From the data I compiled back in fall it was clear the only time it works for us in a Nina were years when we had an anomalous -nao. I think in all the above average snow months during a Nina only one didn't feature a significant -nao period.  Without big help from the nao ninas aren't very snowy here. More so south and north of us. As you have rightfully observed. 

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As a life-long MoCo resident, I'd much rather see the precip map shaped like the 12k 0Z NAM than the other way around-- meaning the runs where the eastern part of the region had more precip. Get Germantown and Damascus to 3" and we'll be ok down here. It's much more precarious for us when eastern parts of the county are supposed to be getting the biggest amount, because that means we're on the far western fringe. That just doesn't work out great. 

It's always IMBY for outcomes. 

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

I'm not gonna waste time digging but there was a snow anomaly map for ninas that had the highest negative anomalies right over our area.  Makes sense due to the northern steam dominance and fast progressive flow and lack of phasing that northern stream systems would tend to stay north and southern ones stay south. We're in the dead zone in between. But we make up for it in ninos and some neutrals.

  From the data I compiled back in fall it was clear the only time it works for us in a Nina were years when we had an anomalous -nao. I think in all the above average snow months during a Nina only one didn't feature a significant -nao period.  Without big help from the nao ninas aren't very snowy here. More so south and north of us. As you have rightfully observed. 

I always thought ninos were bad too. I thought they gave us a lot of SE ridge torch stuff. I seem to remember a Nino winter in 1997 or 1998 that was like the worst in history. It was warm and snowless. Its almost like, no pattern is really a good pattern here.

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

I'm not gonna waste time digging but there was a snow anomaly map for ninas that had the highest negative anomalies right over our area.  Makes sense due to the northern steam dominance and fast progressive flow and lack of phasing that northern stream systems would tend to stay north and southern ones stay south. We're in the dead zone in between. But we make up for it in ninos and some neutrals.

  From the data I compiled back in fall it was clear the only time it works for us in a Nina were years when we had an anomalous -nao. I think in all the above average snow months during a Nina only one didn't feature a significant -nao period.  Without big help from the nao ninas aren't very snowy here. More so south and north of us. As you have rightfully observed. 

I learned to hate Nina's in the early 70's....along with tie-dye shirts and Peter Max designs.

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1 minute ago, Mdecoy said:

I always thought ninos were bad too. I thought they gave us a lot of SE ridge torch stuff. I seem to remember a Nino winter in 1997 or 1998 that was like the worst in history. It was warm and snowless. Its almost like, no pattern is really a good pattern here.

It wasn't rainless though. ;)

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Disclaimer first. I have been around a long time, but have a busy life owning my own business, so there is that. But Bob just stated from what I to understand, this may be just a wait and see. And from what I have read here and looked at far as models, that probably is the case. To me it seems to come down to 1) how strong the vort, max is and if we have a closed low h5 preferably near WVA. I could be way off, but models have not been agreeing, and or waffling on both. So, if this is the case, I would think it would be hard to determine until probably tomorrow and or tomorrow night. As I said, just my thoughts. And I could be way off here. As many, just trying to learn.

 

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19 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

These little dry and higher qpf spots on the meso's dont mean all that much. It's more just noise than things changing. 6z will be different then 12z etc. We won't really know where the mins and maxes will be until it's basically over our heads. 

They will be different but if the low develops offshore and to the north we easterners that don't get the max lifting from PVA with the southern end of the vort are likely to get screwed.  I kind of agree with what PSU postulated. 

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