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Nearing the 2nd half of Meteorological winter:


Typhoon Tip

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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This reminds me of Dec. Many of us thought deep cold wintry period was coming and caution was urged . I even recall some posters were shocked when some of the bitter cold shots started to be modeled. Feb 3 start date was chosen for a reason 

Depends on what you were alluding to...cold patter, of big snow.

The big snow did wait until the holidays.

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5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

We went through one of, if not the coldest week ever in early Jan. How is that going to be rivaled? 

I’m not saying duration necessarily but actual coldest temperatures.  The length of the late December through early January cold would be tough to match.

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Just now, weathafella said:

I’m not saying duration necessarily but actual coldest temperatures.  The length of the late December through early January cold would be tough to match.

Oh so potentially the coldest max and mins? I gotcha. Min is possible. BOS didn't get too crazy low there.

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7 minutes ago, weathafella said:

You’ll be proven wrong I believe.  What was your coldest temperature?  Use that as a benchmark.

Oh I’m fine with that Jerry...if I’m proven wrong will gladly give you the nod.

 

my coldest in the earlier cold shot was -11F.  I don’t think I’m gonna see that again this year.  But if I do...I will be more than happy to concede.

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18 minutes ago, weathafella said:

You’ll be proven wrong I believe.  What was your coldest temperature?  Use that as a benchmark.

Not gonna lie it'll be hard to beat -27F up here but maybe.  I mean we'll need legit -30C at 850mb or even lower over NNE to even have a shot at it.  

That December cold was crazy.

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On 1/25/2018 at 8:17 PM, Ginx snewx said:

Like I said plaing with fire at 5 h but 850 and 2m suggests its a cold atmosphere. Should be fun. Scooter has to make that post every time but nobody should ever think 2015 will be seen again but rather this than a one eyed pig. I also again think like I did in Dec models are keeping energy too far SW. We will see that correction show up next week

 

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I think Scott might have mentioned earlier ? but ... this big pattern change has been recently morphing more and more into a PNA construct compared to the hyper EPO ridge we saw earlier in the week's extended guidance types. I mean there's going to be a negative EPO but the CDC has backed off the depth of the -EPO while now ballooning the PNA numbers for the same Feb-3-10th time range... CPC takes the PNA concerted positive, too. 

Interesting...  If that's the case, that changes the landscape a little... For one, I might expect some of the gradient to relax in future runs, in lieu of western ridging being more confined to middle latitudes.  The storm type and frequency expectations would need to shift accordingly... tendency for types.    

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I think Scott might have mentioned earlier ? but ... this big pattern change has been recently morphing more and more into a PNA construct compared to the hyper EPO ridge we saw earlier in the week's extended guidance types. I mean there's going to be a negative EPO but the CDC has backed off the depth of the -EPO while now ballooning the PNA numbers for the same Feb-3-10th time range... CPC takes the PNA concerted positive, too. 

Interesting...  If that's the case, that changes the landscape a little... For one, I might expect some of the gradient to relax in future runs, in lieu of western ridging being more confined to middle latitudes.  The storm type and frequency expectations would need to shift accordingly... tendency for types.    

That's more favorable for big tickets.

I have no issue with a reemergence of the PNA...that and the EPO should redevelop imo.

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