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Nearing the 2nd half of Meteorological winter:


Typhoon Tip

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11 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I said this when we heard everyone tossing in the towel

I think feb 2016 might have looked worse than this 48 hours out. We were making fun of James for following it. 

Not saying this one will pull what that one did but you gotta be careful on these setups where you have a pretty good shortwave digging and a steepish height gradient just offshore. 

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Will, Scott, could the models be sensing the thunderstorm activity over the western/central Gulf of Mexico and then bringing the coastal low back northwest as the ridging ahead of the shortwave gets better with time?  That northern stream disturbance is really digging southeastward on the latest guidance.  It looks better and better with each passing run.

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41 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I think feb 2016 might have looked worse than this 48 hours out. We were making fun of James for following it. 

Not saying this one will pull what that one did but you gotta be careful on these setups where you have a pretty good shortwave digging and a steepish height gradient just offshore. 

Pretty much... I figured this may have some tricks. Who knows what eventually verifies.... but at least from my point of view... the shifts NW at this lead have been significant so far tonight.

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

James, your maps are the most atrociously overzealous crap I have ever seen.

maybe Ray, but the NAM, SREFs and GFS support this, I am not watching the EURO it has been awful lately.  I think this storm comes west some more, given the H5 shortwave digging, and the lightning over the western Gulf of Mexico

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7 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

maybe Ray, but the NAM, SREFs and GFS support this, I am not watching the EURO it has been awful lately.  I think this storm comes west some more, given the H5 shortwave digging, and the lightning over the western Gulf of Mexico

The NAM and GFS support like a 2-4" deal on the cape...not 8".

Absurd.

Maybe you get a last minute, miracle trend, but they do not currently support that.

You are going to need a true magician, not the metaphoric mid level type.

 

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