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Typhoon Tip

Nearing the 2nd half of Meteorological winter:

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We are have a system on the docket for this weekend, well covered ... 

We have interest next week.  This latter system has some intriguing aspects to its footing. For one, it's not happening in a vacuum of reasons for an event.  The PNA is significantly positive, with trough NE of HA and ridging into western N/A ...idiosyncratically placed more on the favorable side for a negative teleconnector into the 90-80W region.  That may be a little west... but, the ridge in the west is also slightly progressive, so it's adjusting that tele east in time ... Monday through Wednesday.  Also, the initial trough amplification/scenario for this weekend, 'refreshes' the cold and steepens the polar air gradient/frontal slopes around the lower MV to E of Cape Cod ~ axis.   I suspect that nuanced favorable timing ...running even a weaker southern wave over that is likely to leaf, but if the present polar transit wave comes over to our side of the hemisphere say ..stronger?  things get dicey in a real hurry next week. 

 

maybe.jpg

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I posted in prior thread but added to this to further discussion.

Quote

There are a couple features I see that would help.  I think what we'd like to see this current storm come further E so it can beat down the W Atl ridge some more which would in turn allow for the follow up wave to dig some more and also the ULL circulating S of AK pinwheeling storms around it seems to be messing with the PNA ridging out W.  If one of those can pinwheel around shunting the ridge E some we could see some better trough orientation.

 

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2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

We are have a system on the docket for this weekend, well covered ... 

We have interest next week.  This latter system has some intriguing aspects to its footing. For one, it's not happening in a vacuum of reasons for an event.  The PNA is significantly positive, with trough NE of HA and ridging into western N/A ...idiosyncratically placed more on the favorable side for a negative teleconnector into the 90-80W region.  That may be a little west... but, the ridge in the west is also slightly progressive, so it's adjusting that tele east in time ... Monday through Wednesday.  Also, the initial trough amplification/scenario for this weekend, 'refreshes' the cold and steepens the polar air gradient/frontal slopes around the lower MV to E of Cape Cod ~ axis.   I suspect that nuanced favorable timing ...running even a weaker southern wave over that is likely to leaf, but if the present polar transit wave comes over to our side of the hemisphere say ..stronger?  things get dicey in a real hurry next week. 

 

 

Tip

Here's your other post

Quote

As to next week: in some respects, this present modeling tone is a slightly lower amplitude variation of the blizzard a few days ago.  

Looking at the details of the GEFs, you have a lead southern wave being rocket around the periphery of the trough, ... again too fast for middle/ext range global numerical models to handle stream interactions, being a question here.  

Again, we have a surplus of gradient.  The balanced geostrophic wind component everywhere becomes a shearing/negation factor to certain behaviors when it's fast. Lot of eye-glazer tech reasons there. 

But, it would not shock me if it's a hand wringer again until we get into a range where discrete physical assessment (SSTS, convective feedbacks/latent heat load balancing... ) and gunk can be more precisely modeled.  That covers the if/when there is any phasing potential. 

As is, ..the southern stream wave is very weak. It has been in the last three to four days since this thing first got sniffed out.  Unlike the blizzard, this one has NOT yet EVER had a stronger southern wave. Which isn't to say one won't eventually be more properly sampled and so forth... but, to this point, the wave is so weak it's almost negligible... Nonetheless, almost is not total, and it's passing through lower Manitoba and MT...right in there around 96 hours, entices the N stream mechanics to collapse south, a total evolution that is more or less identifiable depending on which run one uses. Of course, everyone knows what happens next.

The Euro is a classic blue bomb juggernaut. That's a 10:1 20"er if I ever saw one...  Totally different impact complexion compared to that fuzzy gob stopper cob-web blizzard last week.  I like how the 0C 850 gets to the Pike, then collapse south like a cheap date when that 500 caves in for a almost 18 DM... That's hallmark signal for 1/8 mile vis parachutes with lightning if I ever saw one.  But we have our dreams... 

I'll tell ya one thing... if you are a winter storm enthusiasts, this is probably the best imaginable way there is to run a thaw!  Two days of this...two days of that?  So we kill today and tomorrow...but if we end up with a 1/2" accretion in the interior on Saturday, then melon ball the temperatures under freezing for three days and cap it with a 10 to 20" storm, I'd still say ur batting average is pretty sound.   

 

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thanks Bob ... I was just spinning back pages wondering what the consensus was ...when i realized how much i hate doing that... more importantly, when there are over a 100 pages to do so - heh.  

 

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2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

thanks Bob ... I was just spinning back pages wondering what the consensus was ...when i realized how much i hate doing that... more importantly, when there are over a 100 pages to do so - heh.  

 

It was a good time to start a new thread.

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Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It’s prob close to starting the miller B thread too, which we vote you to do so. 

My juju is legendary.  I'll may start one tomorrow evening or Saturday AM if the signal is still good.  I like what I see right now.

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stratosphere (at least according to NCEP's products on the matter..) appears reasonably well primed for an SSW but ...we don't seem to have any planetary waves terminating/timing.  

Otherwise, there is above normal ozone aggregates in the 100, 50, 30, and 10 hPa levels; just need the terminating waa and the warm plume should ignite. Could be something to watch later on ... 20 to 25 day lag there, so, if we wanna get any benefits out of that particular correlation to blocking at higher lat, best to get some warming underway sooner ...otherwise, the forcing hits in March which can be bad for both winter enthusiasts and spring enthusiasts.  

What I do find interesting is that the MJO is presently in the wrong side of the Wheeler diag.  It's tele is actually nailing the warm up this week, btw...  But, it's slated to propagate right on through 6 into 7, then 8 over the next 10 days. The signal in Jan/Feb is warm over the OV through mid 7 or so...but then rapidly cools into 8.  At that time, I am noticing that the GEFs products over at the monitoring are modeling a 100 hPa (sort of the bottom rim of the stratosphere ...just above the tropopause) has a midland scale warm anomaly over Siberia by day 10...  This all could very tentatively signal a -EPO burst out there beyond the present modeling, so we'll see.   But all the while, no SSW just yet ..

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18 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

stratosphere (at least according to NCEP's products on the matter..) appears reasonably well primed for an SSW but ...we don't seem to have any planetary waves terminating/timing.  

Otherwise, there is above normal ozone aggregates in the 100, 50, 30, and 10 hPa levels; just need the terminating waa and the warm plume should ignite. Could be something to watch later on ... 20 to 25 day lag there, so, if we wanna get any benefits out of that particular correlation to blocking at higher lat, best to get some warming underway sooner ...otherwise, the forcing hits in March which can be bad for both winter enthusiasts and spring enthusiasts.  

What I do find interesting is that the MJO is presently in the wrong side of the Wheeler diag.  It's tele is actually nailing the warm up this week, btw...  But, it's slated to propagate right on through 6 into 7, then 8 over the next 10 days. The signal in Jan/Feb is warm over the OV through mid 7 or so...but then rapidly cools into 8.  At that time, I am noticing that the GEFs products over at the monitoring are modeling a 100 hPa (sort of the bottom rim of the stratosphere ...just above the tropopause) has a midland scale warm anomaly over Siberia by day 10...  This all could very tentatively signal a -EPO burst out there beyond the present modeling, so we'll see.   But all the while, no SSW just yet ..

 I mentioned the chances for a SSW to get under mid season, just after the thaw...to lay the ground work for late season...some of my analogs had that.

Time will tell.

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25 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 I mentioned the chances for a SSW to get under mid season, just after the thaw...to lay the ground work for late season...some of my analogs had that.

Time will tell.

yeah... I didn't get any deeper ... due to the speculative nature/conjecture, but, I was thinking that the "thaw" and or relaxation in sectors around the hemisphere could presage an SSW ...as that warm resulting mid latitudes are then plausibly deliverable to higher latitudes/altitudes during terminating planetary wave phenomenon... --> with primed stratosphere, 'perhaps' lending to one of them occurring. 

time will tell.. 

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1 hour ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

My juju is legendary.  I'll may start one tomorrow evening or Saturday AM if the signal is still good.  I like what I see right now.

Cept the one in Dec....

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GFS looks pretty decent...the pieces still there. Ditto GGEM. the exact outcomes aren't that important...but GFS looks like a low end warning event and GGEM more of an advisory event is it was a little less organized...more of a rounded upper low that doesn't allow the mid-level features to form cohesively. GFS has a better defined vortmax....but that type of detail is basically meaningless at this stage.

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

GFS looks pretty decent...the pieces still there. Ditto GGEM. the exact outcomes aren't that important...but GFS looks like a low end warning event and GGEM more of an advisory event is it was a little less organized...more of a rounded upper low that doesn't allow the mid-level features to form cohesively. GFS has a better defined vortmax....but that type of detail is basically meaningless at this stage.

Starting to check off all the boxes now, really like this 

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17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I posted accidentally in the other thread, but that's an unusual look. Would rather have a more concise low to the SE.

Up here I liked it for that reason...tries to get it cranking early despite the odd verbatim look.

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That thing next week could be powder keg ...  That U/A of the N-stream is moving in about two days post the circulation total mass field having packed the hell out of the thickness...then, collocated that right smack over the Gulf Stream when using ...just about any model. 

I suspect the only reason we haven't seen a more robust/coherently stronger depiction already is the g-models being cutesy with details. 

I would argue that the non-hydrostatic model types will do well if that 'general' table-set is still offering up as we end the weekend there.   I tell you, if you just cut out the domain of S-SE Canada and the U.S. OV/MA/NE regions that "ICON" model from Germany is fairly reasonable 1978 analog.  Don't know about the total domain...just that region tho. Don't know much about that model, either... but that idea of the western end of SPV fragment turning cyclonically S all at once there is pretty much exactly what happened around F3/4 back whence.  

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