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Nearing the 2nd half of Meteorological winter:


Typhoon Tip

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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Huh? It’s regional 1-2” SNE with local higher amounts. Nothing has changed for 2 days . 

Inches and inches of flurries.

Leaning towards 0.1-0.3 liquid yielding sub-advisory snows, outcomes
along a sharp cutoff S/E of the I-95 corridor, highest amounts over
the Outer Cape and Nantucket potentially up around 2" with snow to
liquid ratios around 12:1.

Trailing shortwave digs through the mid-Atlantic, continental-moist
airmass, W of the descending cold conveyor belt associated with the
lead shortwave, there`s the likelihood for some snow shower activity
along the Berkshires in proximity to an inverted trof, perhaps aided
by orographic lift. Otherwise the remainder of New England remains
overcast with flurries at most.
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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

12z will tell, but there is a good mid level magic signal that is on some guidance. That could be a very sneaky band where it sets up. The GFS has it right over SNE from CT river east.

But is that the GFS being the GFS?  I'm not sure the baro zone has enough time to recover before the storm rolls up the coast to throw moisture that far back west?

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4 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

But is that the GFS being the GFS?  I'm not sure the baro zone has enough time to recover before the storm rolls up the coast to throw moisture that far back west?

It might be, that's why I said the 12z stuff probably will be the deciding factor, but even the NAM sort of showed this. The shallow baro zone is well off, but there is definitely a tilt back above 850mb to the west. I'm staying conservative, but I have my eye open for that too. Decent NE inflow from 950-850 too all the while temps drop at that level. Could be light snow just from that. 

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2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Just didn’t understand The melts and no snows yesterday . Some still doing it today lol. Soon they too will admit errors 

Meh, you gave your reasoning as to why its gonna snow, I gave mine as to why its not.  Inverted trough has gone poof as it has moved further south on modeling.  It's now solidly over PA/NJ.

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4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Just didn’t understand The melts and no snows yesterday . Some still doing it today lol. Soon they too will admit errors 

 No melting.  Just being realistic and not living in a fantasy.   If Scoot’s mini mid level comes to fruition I will tip my cap.  I am expecting pretty much the BOX map

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

There is no and never has been an IVT involved with snow over SNE. That is a figment of an IPA imagination.

It was there at like day 6. But it's been over like western NY down to PA and the mid Atlantic since then. Some guidance tries to clip extreme western areas with it but I'd prob say it's still mostly southwest. 

Our hope is def the main system and its associated midlevels. 

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It was there at like day 6. But it's been over like western NY down to PA and the mid Atlantic since then. Some guidance tries to clip extreme western areas with it but I'd prob say it's still mostly southwest. 

Our hope is def the main system and its associated midlevels. 

Yeah that's what I mean. It's way out in PA currently as modeled. I'm not sure why Kevin is insistent on this.

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