Typhoon Tip Posted January 29, 2018 Author Share Posted January 29, 2018 you almost wonder if an Archembault type event lurks out there mid month too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Not sure about warning. Probably sub warning Friday with the anal. But something in the cards Sunday-Monday. Ptype to be determined. Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: you almost wonder if an Archembault type event lurks out there mid month too I think we will get one...question is whether its on the front end or back end of the regime shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 GFS on board friday morning now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 Looks good Thurs and Fri up here, Getting close to 6" over two days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 Days and days on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 29, 2018 Author Share Posted January 29, 2018 it's an interesting run there over next weekend too. the flow is so fast everywhere that the lower troposphere doesn't have time to warm up on the backside of the high. The next wave/arctic boundary has a 'polar warm sector' with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 4 minutes ago, dryslot said: Days and days on the GFS. Just like a couple weeks ago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 7 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Just like a couple weeks ago? 3 s/w's over a 6 day stretch on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 30 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: it's an interesting run there over next weekend too. the flow is so fast everywhere that the lower troposphere doesn't have time to warm up on the backside of the high. The next wave/arctic boundary has a 'polar warm sector' with it. We saw an event like that in late February 2015 I recall...it was after the whole snow blitz in the first 2 weeks of that month...but we had this ugly system tracking west of us but given the entrenched arctic airmass that month, it didn't turn us to rain. We got something like 3-7" of WAA snow from a bit of a ragged radar presentation...with splotchy jackpots. The southwest nature of the WAA in the lower levels was probably not very conductive for good moisture transport. So it wasn't a great looking event. But it was just another advisory type snowfall on top of the 3-4 foot snowpack we already had: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: We saw an event like that in late February 2015 I recall...it was after the whole snow blitz in the first 2 weeks of that month...but we had this ugly system tracking west of us but given the entrenched arctic airmass that month, it didn't turn us to rain. We got something like 3-7" of WAA snow from a bit of a ragged radar presentation...with splotchy jackpots. The southwest nature of the WAA in the lower levels was probably not very conductive for good moisture transport. So it wasn't a great looking event. But it was just another advisory type snowfall on top of the 3-4 foot snowpack we already had: That was Kevin's AWT trend to colder storm. We did mix with rain at the tail end, but I recall 3" or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 Thigh high month incoming, pull your skirts up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 43 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Thigh high month incoming, pull your skirts up. Very high expectations there Berg.......But I guess with High Risk, sometimes comes High Reward...hope it works out for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Thigh high month incoming, pull your skirts up. I don't think it will be anything epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I don't think it will be anything epic. What we need to kick is this fast multiple shortwaves everywhere type flow. It screams a lot of fast moving light to moderate events with terrible modeling leading up to them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 12 minutes ago, powderfreak said: What we need to kick is this fast multiple shortwaves everywhere type flow. It screams a lot of fast moving light to moderate events with terrible modeling leading up to them. We may get a bit more amplified as the ridge shifts eastward...turns into a more classic PNA ridge...that will help a little. But even then, it's still looking like a pretty fast flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 What did Euro do with Friday’s snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: What did Euro do with Friday’s snow? Looks like maybe 2-3" type deal? Could be initial ptype issues along coast with warm BL...could be a flash freeze there though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Looks like maybe 2-3" type deal? Could be initial ptype issues along coast with warm BL...could be a flash freeze there though. Oh no, not the Flash Freeze idea again lol.....Fraud 5 lives....believe that when you see it. 2-3 will become trace to coating by Friday....? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Looks like maybe 2-3" type deal? Could be initial ptype issues along coast with warm BL...could be a flash freeze there though. Comes in day Friday or pre dawn ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Looks like maybe 2-3" type deal? Could be initial ptype issues along coast with warm BL...could be a flash freeze there though. Yea and that is a major arctic front so those numbers can move quite a bit depending on speed. Nice setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Comes in day Friday or pre dawn ? you should Pony up 10 bucks for 2 months and you can see for yourself, what is that 2 16 OZ IPAs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Comes in day Friday or pre dawn ? friday predawn to noon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 30 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I don't think it will be anything epic. That’s subjective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 That could be a commute disaster Friday morning. That would be RASN or RA to briefly start and then flash to snow with temps in the 20s. Yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 1 hour ago, WinterWolf said: Very high expectations there Berg.......But I guess with High Risk, sometimes comes High Reward...hope it works out for us. Nobody makes the big bucks in life being average. I see a pitch I can crush, I go for it. If I miss, I gave it my best shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: That could be a commute disaster Friday morning. That would be RASN or RA to briefly start and then flash to snow with temps in the 20s. Yikes. was thinking the same thing, but because the last one failed they all fail according to some. Guess they erase from their memory the truly impactful Arctic fronts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That could be a commute disaster Friday morning. That would be RASN or RA to briefly start and then flash to snow with temps in the 20s. Yikes. Your fetish. Does Thursday still roar into the 40’s? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 be watching Mon Tuesday the 5th and 6th, has promise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Your fetish. Does Thursday still roar into the 40’s? Yeah those are fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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