WintersComing Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 Not a bad signal for 6+ days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 Yeah the Euro is def trying for Monday...that's a tight squeeze, but it might have enough room to come NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 19 minutes ago, Sugarloaf1989 said: Hopefully the ski areas get some natural base out of the upcoming storm cycle. Friday looks meh' Monday looks like it could miss so I wouldn't get too excited for powdah' days in S VT. I'm not trying to be a debbie d just calling it like I see. I'm in the same boat as you, S Vt and Berk E are my local ski areas. They really need a SWFE or a coastal hugger in WNE to hope any natural terrain opens again this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 6 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Friday looks meh' Monday looks like it could miss so I wouldn't get too excited for powdah' days in S VT. I'm not trying to be a debbie d just calling it like I see. I'm in the same boat as you, S Vt and Berk E are my local ski areas. They really need a SWFE or a coastal hugger in WNE to hope any natural terrain opens again this year. I'm more hoping the skiing areas can have some strong weeks going forward. After a too cold Christmas week and rain on MLK, business is way down from last year. Berkshire East was not the best last Friday, but considering the rain three days before, it could have been worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 Probably don’t want Friday to be too potent because it may force the thermal boundary too far east and screw Monday up which may have more potential to be a big event. It still seems hard though with that initial GL/NNE low. Unless that blows up quickly as it departs I think the zipping flow makes Monday another 4-8 inch type deal at the very best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 30, 2018 Author Share Posted January 30, 2018 I have no idea how well this ICON's on-going verification scores are; I've yet to dig around on-line to find those. Others on here have labeled it useless out of box, but I wonder how much of that is new kid in the playground more so than fairly/adequately scoring.. It backed off a little at 12z ... Not knowing it's usefulness or native biases, perhaps that's the beginning of the end, but it's been persistently detonating a low along the arctic boundary on Friday ...even in this weaker 12z version...it's like 9 steady hours of moderate snow in a stripe from mid CT to SE NH... Thing is, the total tropopheric mechanics are intrinsically problematic for all guidance between tomorrow and Friday. Why? Because that sucker is about as flat a wave as there can be. Almost no curvature - all velocity in amplitude. And, coming like a bullet straight off the Pac at ludicrous speeds. The models almost never handle that sort of thing well... This just may be the 10 day challenge for all models for this season we got going on... Also, let's start a new model/discussion thread... use this or some one else other ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 GFS is weak sauce for Friday. Does has the Coastal for next week clipping the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I have no idea how well this ICON's on-going verification scores are; I've yet to dig around on-line to find those. Others on here have labeled it useless out of box, but I wonder how much of that is new kid in the playground more so than fairly/adequately scoring.. It backed off a little at 12z ... Not knowing it's usefulness or native biases, perhaps that's the beginning of the end, but it's been persistently detonating a low along the arctic boundary on Friday ...even in this weaker 12z version...it's like 9 steady hours of moderate snow in a stripe from mid CT to SE NH... Thing is, the total tropopheric mechanics are intrinsically problematic for all guidance between tomorrow and Friday. Why? Because that sucker is about as flat a wave as there can be. Almost no curvature - all velocity in amplitude. And, coming like a bullet straight off the Pac at ludicrous speeds. The models almost never handle that sort of thing well... This just may be the 10 day challenge for all models for this season we got going on... Also, let's start a new model/discussion thread... use this or some one else other ? The ICON was the strongest with Friday at 12Z of any model so far and of course it has Sunday into Monday being the weakest as well which would make sense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 Is the ICON a German model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 Thursday night is a 1-3”, Lolli 4” event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 47 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Thursday night is a 1-3”, Lolli 4” event I hope so but I need a little bump in models before I even commit to that much. I am slowly slipping into a state of winter ennui. I have hopes for this pattern but we still may see little to nothing until late next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 12z GEFS has the storm next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 Can we start a thread for the Thursday night storm ? Fire one up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 Anafrontal looks more and more meh. Maybe 1-2? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 Just now, CoastalWx said: Anafrontal looks more and more meh. Maybe 1-2? Go Ukie or go home. All kidding aside, it's prob kind of an ugly 1-3" event...seems like it won't look amazing on radar. But I'll take a refresher. Maybe we can squeeze a pretty good system in Monday after the SB....we'll need that shortwave diving down through upper plains to trend a bit better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Can we start a thread for the Thursday night storm ? Fire one up Knock yourself out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Go Ukie or go home. All kidding aside, it's prob kind of an ugly 1-3" event...seems like it won't look amazing on radar. But I'll take a refresher. Maybe we can squeeze a pretty good system in Monday after the SB....we'll need that shortwave diving down through upper plains to trend a bit better. What’s Ukie got? 3-6” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Go Ukie or go home. All kidding aside, it's prob kind of an ugly 1-3" event...seems like it won't look amazing on radar. But I'll take a refresher. Maybe we can squeeze a pretty good system in Monday after the SB....we'll need that shortwave diving down through upper plains to trend a bit better. Without a wave, it's almost like a fropa with moisture lagging behind. It's too bad we couldn't pop something sooner. But whatever..hopefully 1-3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 Ukie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: What’s Ukie got? 3-6” Yeah...solid advisory stuff. Anyway, Euro looks like it is trying for SB Sunday into Monday. Long duration event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 30, 2018 Author Share Posted January 30, 2018 Nobody's askin' or talkin' 'bout it but I still think it's interesting (if not weird) that the models are really failing to bring even more of a polar outbreak of air (let alone arctic) off of that immense leading -EPO ...relay into +PNA. Still, this Euro brings blase chill relative to climo despite those mass-field index modes/modality. Spoke a bit about the MJO's contribution to this month ... I wonder if tropical forcing in a favorable wave space is just not not yet registering in the physics... Without out it you'd expect a -3 SD EPO and then +PNA following a week later to do more than -12 C at 850 at ORD. Maybe we'll get an assist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 It's def active...like 4 legit threats on the Euro run today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah...solid advisory stuff. Anyway, Euro looks like it is trying for SB Sunday into Monday. Long duration event. Yes sir Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It's def active...like 4 legit threats on the Euro run today. active, fast threats, as we anticipated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Yes sir That one has a little more potential than Thursday night...we have that pretty good shortwave in the plains diving SE...if we can turn that over neutral/neg in time, we could get Superbowl Sunday to pop that night into Monday morning. Not a lot of room to do it, but it's attainable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: That one has a little more potential than Thursday night...we have that pretty good shortwave in the plains diving SE...if we can turn that over neutral/neg in time, we could get Superbowl Sunday to pop that night into Monday morning. Not a lot of room to do it, but it's attainable. Kev asked me 3 days ago what was Mon Tuesday like I was dreaming or gone wild. These guys don't get it. I just don't hype but rather watch and study patterns. I am very enthusiastic when I see something I like but never make things up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 I'd go with 8-12" for all of SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 Freak won’t love the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 1 minute ago, Sugarloaf1989 said: I'd go with 8-12" for all of SNE. You need to chill on Kev and maybe go back to adding something to the forum other than snark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Freak won’t love the Euro Its actually not bad at all for ski areas up north....a lot of smaller refreshers including Wed night/Thursday during the day while we are milder. Then a bunch of other smaller events...it would be better if they could get one big QPF bomb in the pack, but a bunch of smaller refreshers is probably the next best thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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