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JAN 4th Coastal

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From a meteorological standpoint this is going to be an epic event even if it doesn’t give us a flake.  If it lives to the full potential it’ll probably make Kocin’s next book.  I’m at least excited for that part

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2 minutes ago, WeathermanB said:

Still a chance of the map being right.

We aren't 72+ hours out. We know the track, and it isn't good. As DT pointed out, "If the storm formed off of Georgia and had the classic Cape Hatteras to Cape Cod track, everyone (DC included), should be super happy". Issue is, it's forming off the coast of FLORIDA. This isn't a favorable track for DC, and is why areas to the Northeast also have substantially higher climo snow totals, since they catch storms like these. Let's just say everything trends spectacular during the next 24 hours. Even then, QPF for DC is probably only 0.2". Factor in, say 20:1 ratios, and that's 4", I guess? I hope I'm wrong, but we are running out of time. By this time before the storm during the Dec 8-9 storm, models trended West, and all of the ops had snow for DC.

Just now, feloniousq said:

Bold, but ultimately correct decision on that map to leave DC out entirely.

:lol:

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1 minute ago, BristowWx said:

From a meteorological standpoint this is going to be an epic event even if it doesn’t give us a flake.  If it lives to the full potential it’ll probably make Kocin’s next book.  I’m at least excited for that part

Probably will become a NESIS event

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1 minute ago, Cobalt said:

We aren't 72+ hours out. We know the track, and it isn't good. As DT pointed out, "If the storm formed off of Georgia and had the classic Cape Hatteras to Cape Cod track, everyone (DC included), should be super happy". Issue is, it's forming off the coast of FLORIDA. This isn't a favorable track for DC, and is why areas to the Northeast also have substantially higher climo snow totals, since they catch storms like these. Let's just say everything trends spectacular during the next 24 hours. Even then, QPF for DC is probably only 0.2". Factor in, say 20:1 ratios, and that's 4", I guess? I hope I'm wrong, but we are running out of time. By this time before the storm during the Dec 8-9 storm, models trended West, and all of the ops had snow for DC.

:lol:

I never realized this much could go wrong. Its amazing. On the NAM the low tracks within the same proximity to NE and they get clobbered.

I use to think, some cold air, strong low coming up the coast, game set match. Now its jet streaks, 500 this 700 that. What a horrible horrible area this is to live in for snow.

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I think its best if we avoid the bulls eye until 12z tomorrow.  We don't want there to be any time left to shift back.  Maybe happy hour GFS will start a trend.

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Just now, Mdecoy said:

I never realized this much could go wrong. Its amazing. On the NAM the low tracks within the same proximity to NE and they get clobbered.

I use to think, some cold air, strong low coming up the coast, game set match. Now its jet streaks, 500 this 700 that. What a horrible horrible area this is to live in for snow.

Like someone said, without Blizzards that we get every 7 years, we'd probably average 8-10" of snow. 2013/14 through 2015/16 were complete flukes, with the exception of maybe 2014/15. 

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QPF forecast looks to be a guess of 4-6 inches of snow for central and south delaware? Could be whiteout conditions thursday morning before it probably tapers off around 1 pm. Has us in the 0.25 shading, i'm guessing a high ratio of 20:1 or so. 

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1 minute ago, WeathermanB said:

QPF forecast looks to be a guess of 4-6 inches of snow for central and south delaware? Could be whiteout conditions thursday morning before it probably tapers off around 1 pm. Has us in the 0.25 shading, i'm guessing a high ratio of 20:1 or so. 

Awesome, I guess. 

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1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

 


Still a chance that an asteroid wipes us out in the next 48 hours.

 

Guaranteed to tick west and still miss us. :lol:

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1 minute ago, WeathermanB said:

According to their NAM forecast, this. Weenies i guess.

DSj37R2X4AAQJUL.jpg

I never said anything about Boston lol. It's about DC and the sharp cutoff

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Going to be interesting to see if 18z RGEM continues to be rock solid in it' track and accumulations... Yes it's the farthest west, but it hasn't been changing for the past 5 runs now

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3 minutes ago, yoda said:

Going to be interesting to see if 18z RGEM continues to be rock solid in it' track and accumulations... Yes it's the farthest west, but it hasn't been changing for the past 5 runs now

Looks to be further east.  Still has some light snow through DC and west but the QPF will be lower.

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5 minutes ago, yoda said:

Going to be interesting to see if 18z RGEM continues to be rock solid in it' track and accumulations... Yes it's the farthest west, but it hasn't been changing for the past 5 runs now

I think we've reached consensus now with the globals. We'll see some wobbles but the dreams of Jan 2000 have been squashed like the Raven's playoff hopes. 

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1 minute ago, LP08 said:

Looks to be further east.  Still has some light snow through DC and west but the QPF will be lower.

Where are you looking? TT is only up to hr 24

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7 minutes ago, yoda said:

Going to be interesting to see if 18z RGEM continues to be rock solid in it' track and accumulations... Yes it's the farthest west, but it hasn't been changing for the past 5 runs now

It actually dropped qpf a little from 06z to 12z, and it looks like it's doing it again.  At 36 hours, it appears to have made a clear shift towards the stronger, more western track of the low with a tighter gradient. 

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2 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Where are you looking? TT is only up to hr 24

Take the rain/snow line off and it goes out further, faster.

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2 minutes ago, cae said:

It actually dropped qpf a little from 06z to 12z, and it looks like it's doing it again.  At 36 hours, it appears to have made a clear shift towards the stronger, more western track of the low with a tighter gradient.  Mods, please feel free to move this post if it contains too much weather discussion.

:lol:

Yeah, you know better then to be discussing weather in a weenie thread.

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1 minute ago, showmethesnow said:

:lol:

Yeah, you know better then to be discussing weather in a weenie thread.

Wow, you were quick!  I deleted that soon after posting after deciding we already have enough juvenile snark in this thread.

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Just now, yoda said:

Still looks like 0.2 QPF at DCA

It does but it seems like an incremental step towards everything else. Unless everything else moves towards the rgem of course....heh...nah

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4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

RGEM has the low much farther west and precip on the west side is much weaker and farther east.  

At this rate the low will be coming up the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay and we will get light snow showers because of the poorly placed jet streaks.

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3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

RGEM has the low much farther west and precip on the west side is much weaker and farther east.  

Sure is counterintuitive, isn't it.

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Very big ice storm for North Florida. Wonder how they'll cope. Scary stuff, especially for people very unprepared.

 

 

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Not sure if this belongs in the Disc/Obs thread or here but the cold following the storm is downright “impressive” - Euro has mid-single digit lows even at DCA and highs in the teens on Saturday.  Northern tier will probably be below 0.  Mountains will have windchills -20 and below.  

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