RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 “the heart wants what it wants” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, OceanStWx said: I might be. And what would it take for you to be that fellow this time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, JC-CT said: And what would it take for you to be that fellow this time? For starters I need to get to work, and that won’t be until 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 I’ll take Rays snowfall map in a heartbeat! had me in the 8-14 inch zone..we take. also nice write up Ray. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 6 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: For starters I need to get to work, and that won’t be until 10. slacker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 10 minutes ago, WintersComing said: FWIW: HRDPS also much further west Still time to get this over PVD, huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 40 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said: I hope that includes the storm on your avatar, thats the kind of distribution to make just about everyone happy. Absolutely. That was a NAM run back when I made the account when I lived in New Jersey. Think it was the last big true miller A before Jan 16'. Now I live in Eastie and loving my spot for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 RPM is back to a blockbuster for central and eastern CT, oh that model, i love it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: Still time to get this over PVD, huh? Wonder how much E NY will get? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 11 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: “the heart wants what it wants” Similar to the Canadian meso model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, The 4 Seasons said: RPM is back to a blockbuster for central and eastern CT, oh that model, i love it bang bang skeet skeet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 50 minutes ago, tim123 said: Notice how models are kicking it east farther up the coast with almost every run. Should be telling. Yea I think we’ll eventually lose the “kick” altogether. We’ve lost the warm core look on most guidance through hr 42 or so, but it seems to come back after that point to some degree, resulting in the further east movement (away from the cold air) which is counter to mid latitude cyclone development. It should be losing the warm core characteristics with latitude, not gaining them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Wonder how much E NY will get? 1-2" for Albany? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Remember that anafrontal deal a couple years ago that turned into a full-fledged coastal within the last 48 hours or so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 I'm working on a blog post/snow map and I almost don't even want to do a snow map right now lol...there's just too many unknowns and the range potential is just too high. There is zero way to really know where the CCB will setup and that doesn't only influence where the jackpot zones are but it also influences who sucks on subsidence for a good amount of time. I'm even uncertain how expansive the precip shield will be...although this point is more due to lack of knowledge. I want to feel like that since this thing is going to be insanely deep that two things will happen; 1) The core of the precip shield is confined closer to the center of the storm and 2) Will precip end up being more bandy...like what happened in Boxing Day in 2009...that too could also introduce areas of subsidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, JC-CT said: Remember that anafrontal deal a couple years ago that turned into a full-fledged coastal within the last 48 hours or so? the high light of that winter back here...6-7 inches mashed potatoes ground b4 wasn't even frozen solid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: 1-2" for Albany? My gut says 4-8 easy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnno Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, JC-CT said: Remember that anafrontal deal a couple years ago that turned into a full-fledged coastal within the last 48 hours or so? Another ain’t happening James wasn’t it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 16 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: For starters I need to get to work, and that won’t be until 10. We would like the wv vs model verification analysis, please. throw in a ncar ensemble post and we happy, you can rest afterwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Yea I think we’ll eventually lose the “kick” altogether. We’ve lost the warm core look on most guidance through hr 42 or so, but it seems to come back after that point to some degree, resulting in the further east movement (away from the cold air) which is counter to mid latitude cyclone development. Good points....and I still can’t get over the strength of this thing...I have a hard time imagining this will get that strong??? I mean pressures in the 940’s at out latitude...I’m skeptical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 I don't know what thing this is, as no one here even talks about it, but the 18Z GEM (not RGEM) is almost a complete whiff, wtf? That QPF field is completely unrealistic but still how can it be so different from the RGEM.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: My gut says 4-8 easy Gonna' need the Euro another 50-75mi W for that to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Does anyone know if any sampled data from today's special recons will make it into the 0z runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 If this storms pulls the rug out from underneath me like the Christmas storm, I may actually cry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Shamelessly purloined from Bluewave. Dude's digging up gold. Uncertainty.... As mentioned above this storm is still 2 days away and the average model error at this time range is 50-75 miles. Thus this applies to the axis of heaviest snow and the location of the rain-snow line. Hence adjustments in later forecasts are expected. Will models continue to trend westward in later runs? Given the amplitude of the long wave pattern, system developing over the Gulf Stream and convection possibly building the downstream ridge more than models are simulating all suggest an eastward trend is unlikely with some additional westward adjustment possible. We`ve been told recon flights will collect data shortly and this will likely help improve model performance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 11 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: RPM is back to a blockbuster for central and eastern CT, oh that model, i love it Can you post? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Gonna' need the Euro another 50-75mi W for that to happen. That’s doable. it made a big shift at 12z but shat the bed with qpf. eps was west with the trough and better ridging out west than the gefs and yet.....it was east with the srfc low and qpf. Makes zero sense to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: That’s doable. it made a big shift at 12z but shat the bed with qpf. eps was west with the trough and better ridging out west than the gefs and yet.....it was east with the srf low and qpf. Makes zero sense to me. Things still correcting...nothing set in stone anywhere yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Outside of exactly how far west/east this tracks everything else is just going to come down to nowcasting...we can probably dissect every single computer forecast model, ensemble, drawings done ion people's basements, etc but much of what happens and how it unfolds will be all nowcasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Gonna' need the Euro another 50-75mi W for that to happen. Wouldn’t be using anything Euro op wise after it’s whacko solution run today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.