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Jan 4-6 Coastal Bomb


Baroclinic Zone

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1 hour ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

I don't like the warmth the models are showing, I can understand why they show it, but the SSTs have cooled off considerably

Warm(er)south winds all night Wed at 850h plus 42 degree Easterlies at the surface Thursday will give us mostly rain. You might get some icing to start.

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15 minutes ago, dendrite said:

6z RGEM crushes the coastline. 

2314AA50-A4BF-46B3-ACC1-EA04FA1F2CA3.gif

Hideous snow hole over Kevin's head that run. 

We are starting to see the model war I speculated on last night. The non-hydrostatics are taking this west. Still a bit too early to be using those models too seriously but by tonight's runs they will be inside 48 hours. 

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25 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Hideous snow hole over Kevin's head that run. 

We are starting to see the model war I speculated on last night. The non-hydrostatics are taking this west. Still a bit too early to be using those models too seriously but by tonight's runs they will be inside 48 hours. 

That’s actually seeing the CT valley hole and just misplaced it . I’ve seen that many times over the years as models do that . A great example is the Morch firehouse storm. They had that hole over NE CT and it was the valley that ended up screwed. I’ve noticed it happens on these big easterly inflow storms 

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

It is. Boy this thread was unreadable last night. Some of you were ridiculous. And by some I mean Tblizz. Just ignore what Mets have been saying for years about these things/model biases....etc.

We keep saying it, but you guys all entertain and respond to him. So he just keeps doing it 

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NWS BOX:

Generally the 00z model guidance is in agreement with this system.
However the 00z GFS appears to be on the eastern end of the envelope
with both wind and QPF. Thus trended the forecast toward WPC/EPS/GEFS
and UKMET to account for latest trends in this system, which is a
bit more wet than 12z. This resulted in a bit more QPF and stronger
winds for this forecast. Latest 06z NAM has trended a bit farther
west and push the 850mb low right over the benchmark. Hopefully this
is not a trend or else will need to expand all watches farther west.
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Hideous snow hole over Kevin's head that run. 
We are starting to see the model war I speculated on last night. The non-hydrostatics are taking this west. Still a bit too early to be using those models too seriously but by tonight's runs they will be inside 48 hours. 

That’s the 2” an hour rate monster band that will be setting up over our heads!! ;)


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