December 30th 2017 Clipper

[RU848789]

2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Best guess, generally near 0.5" to near 1". As one gets a little further south and east, some 1"-2" amounts are possible. This doesn't look like a big event anywhere, but the kind that can still lead to slippery driving conditions.

Don - great point about even 1/2" to 1" still leading to slippery walking/driving with temps in the mid-20s, so snow will accumulate on all surfaces quickly.  Remember it was just 2 weeks ago that we had a horrific Friday afternoon rush in the NYC metro area from 1-2" of fluff falling at rush hour in the mid-20s.  Anywhere that gets over an inch of snow will have some slippery travel.  

[donsutherland1]

9 minutes ago, The Plowsman said:

2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Best guess, generally near 0.5" to near 1". As one gets a little further south and east, some 1"-2" amounts are possible. This doesn't look like a big event anywhere, but the kind that can still lead to slippery driving conditions.

Great Don, thanx n Happy New Year

Have a great New Year, too. Hopefully, there will be plowing opportunities, assuming you’re in the business.

[donsutherland1]

2 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Don - great point about even 1/2" to 1" still leading to slippery walking/driving with temps in the mid-20s, so snow will accumulate on all surfaces quickly.  Remember it was just 2 weeks ago that we had a horrific Friday afternoon rush in the NYC metro area from 1-2" of fluff falling at rush hour in the mid-20s.  Anywhere that gets over an inch of snow will have some slippery travel.  

Thanks. Have a great New Year.

[MJO812]

Clipper looks better on the 0z Nam for south shore areas of NYC and LI.

[tim]

5 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Clipper looks better on the 0z Nam for south shore areas of NYC and LI.

yeah..i'm in a good spot..NWS has KFOK with 3"..maybe we can get a 4.

[jm1220]

I'm semi-optimistic here for a couple of fluffy inches. Ratios should be 15-1 or so, so 0.15" liquid here could be 2-2.5" snow. We'll have to see how the radar gets going in the morning. This might be a sneaky producer for central NJ again like the last clipper. The latest Nam has some enhancement there too. 

[dmillz25]

22 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I'm semi-optimistic here for a couple of fluffy inches. Ratios should be 15-1 or so, so 0.15" liquid here could be 2-2.5" snow. We'll have to see how the radar gets going in the morning. This might be a sneaky producer for central NJ again like the last clipper. The latest Nam has some enhancement there too. 

Looks like the low gets going earlier now

[winterwx21]

RGEM just came in better as well. Looks as if NYC has a good chance of seeing an inch or inch and a half.

[Zelocita Weather]

What’s the start time, 8-9am?

[North and West]

RGEM just came in better as well. Looks as if NYC has a good chance of seeing an inch or inch and a half.

Anything in MMU? I have two anxious shovelers at my house.


.

[jm1220]

5 minutes ago, North and West said:

Anything in MMU? I have two anxious shovelers at my house.


.

Not much I'm afraid, under an inch.

[dmillz25]

This has the potential to surprise alot of us tomorrow. To me the low getting going earlier is a good sign

[snowman19]

The new GFS is unimpressive

[jm1220]

6 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

This has the potential to surprise alot of us tomorrow. To me the low getting going earlier is a good sign

I think around Toms River should be on the lookout for a couple of inches too. The hi res models seem to want to enhance snow over central and even southern NJ for a while. 

[Paragon]

On 12/29/2017 at 1:11 AM, NorthShoreWx said:

OES on a south wind.  Check it out.  The radar loop is a thing of beauty:

http://www.northshorewx.com/oes20050119.html

 

 

Thanks, Ed, I remember this now the precip kept backing in from the East and we were originally only supposed to get an inch or two,.

[North and West]

Not much I'm afraid, under an inch.

Thanks. I was ramping down on any expectations for the them.


.

[RU848789]

As expected, updated NWS snowfall maps show a bit of an increase in snowfall, with a general 1-2" expected for central/north Jersey and adjacent PA and NYC, with a few spots possibly getting up to 3". South of 276/195 in PA/NJ, advisories are still up for a general 1-3" of snow (and note that the advisory criterion is 2" of snow in 12 hours vs. 3" of snow in counties north of 276/195 in PA/NJ) and advisories are also up for Nassau/Suffolk for 2-3/2-4" of snow.  Updated AFD from Mt. Holly and maps from Mt. Holly and Upton are below.  Surprised not more chatter on this, as even just an inch of snow falling in the low 20s with our low sun angle will be fairly impactful, as the snow wll accumulate (and not melt) on all surfaces, affecting travel (remember the mess on the Friday afternoon rush hour on 12/15 from just an inch or two of snow with temps in the mid-20s).  

For the most part, a swath of 0.10-0.20" liquid QPF expected across
most of NJ and southeast PA, with the highest QPF across southeast
NJ. With liquid to snow ratios of 15-20:1, this results in 2-3" of
snow across the Delaware Valley, through Philly, and into southeast
NJ. Snow accumulations of less than an inch across southern portions
of the Delmarva, and 1-2" across northern portions of the Delmarva.
Generally 1-2" of snow across the Poconos, northern NJ, and the
Lehigh Valley.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

 

 

[The Plowsman]

I think around Toms River should be on the lookout for a couple of inches too. The hi res models seem to want to enhance snow over central and even southern NJ for a while. 

Always!

[tim]

1 hour ago, RU848789 said:

As expected, updated NWS snowfall maps show a bit of an increase in snowfall, with a general 1-2" expected for central/north Jersey and adjacent PA and NYC, with a few spots possibly getting up to 3". South of 276/195 in PA/NJ, advisories are still up for a general 1-3" of snow (and note that the advisory criterion is 2" of snow in 12 hours vs. 3" of snow in counties north of 276/195 in PA/NJ) and advisories are also up for Nassau/Suffolk for 2-3/2-4" of snow.  Updated AFD from Mt. Holly and maps from Mt. Holly and Upton are below.  Surprised not more chatter on this, as even just an inch of snow falling in the low 20s with our low sun angle will be fairly impactful, as the snow wll accumulate (and not melt) on all surfaces, affecting travel (remember the mess on the Friday afternoon rush hour on 12/15 from just an inch or two of snow with temps in the mid-20s).  

For the most part, a swath of 0.10-0.20" liquid QPF expected across
most of NJ and southeast PA, with the highest QPF across southeast
NJ. With liquid to snow ratios of 15-20:1, this results in 2-3" of
snow across the Delaware Valley, through Philly, and into southeast
NJ. Snow accumulations of less than an inch across southern portions
of the Delmarva, and 1-2" across northern portions of the Delmarva.
Generally 1-2" of snow across the Poconos, northern NJ, and the
Lehigh Valley.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

 

 

NWS seems pretty convinced that some of our snowfall rates will be rather robust..mecoscale

banding might bring heavy snowfall rates for awhile..if that does in fact develop..ELI could 

approach 4" of fluff.

11* with overcast skies

[PB COLTS NECK NJ]

On 12/28/2017 at 4:19 PM, snowman19 said:

Besides Long Island and eastern New England, this is a dusting/snow showers. There may be spots north and west of the city that don’t even see a dusting 

" experts agree "

[EasternLI]

Just looking for 1" over here. That would put December as a whole at average snowfall for me. Most modeling suggests we should be able to achieve that at a minimum.

[SnoSki14]

Radar looks ok for places just to our south, getting virga right now.

[ForestHillWx]

Posted in the December observation thread- my temps are up to 13 from 8 last night. Light snow started around 7 am. Everything coated in white. Winter mood flakes for sure. 

[BxEngine]

Had no issues with virga, coated the streets immediately. Guess ill have to wait another day or two to take down the christmas decorations, no way in doing that in mood snow lol 

[SnowGoose69]

Just now, BxEngine said:

Had no issues with virga, coated the streets immediately. Guess ill have to wait another day or two to take down the christmas decorations, no way in doing that in mood snow lol 

The soundings showed this for days that it would reach the ground immediately.  The echoes are just too light over the NYC metro now but I think anyone with DBZ of 10-12 should see it reach the ground fairly quick.  The radar trends are not too promising though right now nor was the latest HRRR

[Rtd208]

Light snow falling here, a dusting so far.

Temp 18

[strgazr27]

Light snow since about 7:45 has covered surfaces here. 18 degrees. Winds calm. I think this system could surprise a few people and I’m curious to see if any OES does develop. 

[psv88]

Dusting with light snow now. 17*

[Fields27]

Maybe it's just me, but it seems like there is much less virga associated with clippers then big east coast storms. After the air mass we have had in place and the low rates the snow still didn't take long to fall. I feel like this happens with most clippers. Can anyone explain?

Sent from my HTC6535LVW using Tapatalk

[SnowGoose69]

1 minute ago, Fields27 said:

Maybe it's just me, but it seems like there is much less virga associated with clippers then big east coast storms. After the air mass we have had in place and the low rates the snow still didn't take long to fall. I feel like this happens with most clippers. Can anyone explain?

Sent from my HTC6535LVW using Tapatalk
 

 I talked about this yesterday with someone.  We think its because out ahead of an approaching Miller A or even a SWFE you likely have been entrenched in a cold air mass with deep NE flow from Quebec for at least a couple of days.  Ahead of clippers its less common you've got deep NE flow established.