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lilj4425

The snow, sleet, and freezing rain oh my Dec 27-30 thread

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7 minutes ago, broken024 said:

Does that include ice

I don't know. It is snow depth so I would assume it uses a little bit of logic. 

edit: but thinking about it, most individual runs shows a lot of ice. So maybe this is all frozen and freezing types. 

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54 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

I don't know. It is snow depth so I would assume it uses a little bit of logic. 

edit: but thinking about it, most individual runs shows a lot of ice. So maybe this is all frozen and freezing types. 

For sure some of those accumulations will be ice for NC. I would probably halve (at least) those totals. Still a great signal from an ensemble method this far out. 

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22 minutes ago, broken024 said:

Does that include ice

It's a stock 10:1 with snow flag triggered which does not incorporate a mixed bag.  Just looking at H5 amoms, unsure if we do that anymore.  The difference between the 0 and 12z GFS is pretty striking.  The lack of a retrograding SE ridge allows for less amplification of the trough in to the MS valley, a result of the ULL being flattened in upper Plains. 

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1 minute ago, Lookout said:

Yeah...euro looks pretty scary lol

Yep.... huge ice storm for N GA, much of NW 2/3rds of SC, southern, central NC....

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Here’s a sampling of ensemble members from the 12z GEFS. As you can see the OP GFS isn’t well supported. 
GEFSUS_prec_ptypens_144.png&key=27b02397ced867071e308111aaeebb111580aec5861b190b58ba995b0d3ded47

How about for north Texas? Maybe earlier than SE (0z Friday) or no go?


.

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Euro prior to the onset of the event has TDs into the teens all the way to GA/SC line stretching into northern 1/2 of GA.  Drops KCHS to 34 at 06z 12/29. 

EURO eroding southern edge of the wedge too quickly with steady precipitation with such a strong wedge established.  Don't forgot its slight warm bias as well.  This is a classic CAD signature.  

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Robert has chimed in on FB: "The European Model remains adamant on tapping the Gulf around Thursday, sparking a low pressure that turns into a Beast Snowstorm , and IceStorm---depending on your location. Kentucky northern TN, mostly all snow. Heavy snow totals most of NC, upper SC ....major sleet and probably a narrow ice band , but intense in Atanta across northern Georgia and much of central SC." Read more on his FB page WXSouth

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1 hour ago, broken024 said:

Anyone seen the UK? Looked like precipitation was really south

Yeah UKMet was colder but broad and weak with the wave. Pretty much a miss though it has some light precip in the eastern Carolinas. We may some drugs to get thru this week

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1 minute ago, griteater said:

12z Euro Ens Mean is a healthy storm with strong damming, much like the operational run

Safe to say we have CMC, Euro Op, Euro EPS and GEFS on our side vs GFS OP, UKIE and NAVGEM? 

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15 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

Safe to say we have CMC, Euro Op, Euro EPS and GEFS on our side vs GFS OP, UKIE and NAVGEM? 

Don’t forget the GEPS is in the CMC/Euro camp too. 

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1 minute ago, snowlover91 said:

Don’t forget the GEPS is in the CMC/Euro camp too. 

Just saw in MA forum you can add the JMA to the for us camps. 

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The GFS usually does this, just like last storm. It loses the storm or shows a different solution, while the other models come around to the solution it had before it changed.

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