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lilj4425

The snow, sleet, and freezing rain oh my Dec 27-30 thread

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I know the NAM is still outside it's range but it does have a colder look for the SE at hour 84. As others have stated it will probably lead the way with any CAD configuration and warm nose. 

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Just now, Buddy1987 said:

The storm is completely gone on the 12z GFS lmfao!! Unreal. 

Yeah crazy. The only thing I can say is we've seen the models do this in the past at this particular time range. I think the Christmas storm model runs did the same thing. 

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@FallsLake that is the first thing I actually thought of was the time period right now, basically 5 days out. I do think it will look better than this crap when all is said and done. I truly do trust the CMC and NAVGEM over the GFS lately. 

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3 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

CMC is still a nice hit. It does miss the first wave but gives us this for the second:

 

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Good to see it staying consistent. 

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2 minutes ago, vwgrrc said:

Without being disrespectful, I feel we people here always get too excited with 1 or 2 "good" model run, like 0z last night, and easily call a "bad" run outlying. How we know that for sure?

I think at this point, it feels like EVERY run (at least of the GFS) is an outlier. So all over the place

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7 minutes ago, vwgrrc said:

Without being disrespectful, I feel we people here always get too excited with 1 or 2 "good" model run, like 0z last night, and easily call a "bad" run outlying. How we know that for sure? Again, not being disrespectful. I kinda have the same problem. The last night 0z GFS and Canadian gave me (in North TX) a nice ice storm next week. But both showing nothing now :(

To be honest it’s been showing it for days, along with ensemble support. It began to lose it last night and now we have what we have today. All is not lost and GFS is notorious for pulling this. Good to see we still have CMC support on our side. Really need the EURO to show something at least decent today. 

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2 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

It's starting to feel like the cold is overdone.

With those dew points showed above, there's plenty of cold. Even if the high didn't set up correctly or jumped off the coast it would web bulb down below freezing. 

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5 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

GEFS is giving me about 40 to 50 percent chance of .5 QPF by day 6.

Harder to make out what the GEFS is showing but it looks like temps for RDU don't go above freezing for the entire event and there's ~ 1.25 of precip.

So a big storm signal. 

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Posted in the other thread, but FWIW, the 12z GFS ensemble mean was snowier than the 6z was.

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