Buddy1987 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Guys, have most def got to call this a win for today. Forget the gfs op it will come around. The ensembles all in agreeance is a ginormous signal for, at the minimum, a moderate storm, which I know anyone on this board would go for right now. Looking to see what the 18z gfs spits out in around an hour and a half. If this thing fires up on Thursday we are talking a storm that is basically 5 days away at this point. Euro in its wheelhouse, EPS agrees with the Op, get ready folks it’s about to get real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Found them http://wx.graphics/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 4 minutes ago, nchighcountrywx said: Found them http://wx.graphics/ Great stuff man!! Appreciate this. Looking at the Euro in person now, that is a huge hit for a big part of the forum and the temps are super cold way down into GA with the cad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 EPS leaves the 50/50 around a little longer this run. Going to be a long 5 days to keep that feature where it’s at. Regardless I am chasing snow for this one Hopefully it takes just going to Boone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Even Fishel is pumped, lol https://twitter.com/gbfishel/status/944564966153244677 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 28 minutes ago, nchighcountrywx said: Found them http://wx.graphics/ post of the day! thanks!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 FWIW the 18z nam looks more like the cmc and Euro with our energy than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CummingGaSnow Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 I see that NWS Columbia, SC has added a wintry mix all the way down to Orangeburg for Thursday night. That can't be bad this far out. It's weird though, to think that that deep in SC has a wintry mix in forecast but me 1000' higher in North GA is still all rain. I suppose that will (could) change though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 1 minute ago, CummingGaSnow said: I see that NWS Columbia, SC has added a wintry mix all the way down to Orangeburg for Thursday night. That can't be bad this far out. It's weird though, to think that that deep in SC has a wintry mix in forecast but me 1000' higher in North GA is still all rain. I suppose that will (could) change though. I wouldn't pay much significance on any forecast from Twc or tws at this point, it's basically automated. The pros on here will be much more informative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 18z GFS OP=12Z GFS OP. Looking the same. Let’s see if the ensemble support looks just as good as 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted December 23, 2017 Author Share Posted December 23, 2017 The 18z GFS must suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Just now, lilj4425 said: The 18z GFS must suck. Looks like the 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 1 minute ago, FallsLake said: Looks like the 12z. It was looking better at 66 and then jus went to crap from there. Baby steps with this model. I do believe the ensembles will be nice again just gut feeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Just now, Buddy1987 said: It was looking better at 66 and then jus went to crap from there. Baby steps with this model. I do believe the ensembles will be nice again just gut feeling. Yeah, we've seen this show by the GFS in the past. It's still got the storm (week and suppressed). As long as the other models keep showing their solution we have a little time to let the GFS readjust its outcome. **hopefully the other models don't readjust to the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 1 minute ago, FallsLake said: Yeah, we've seen this show by the GFS in the past. It's still got the storm (week and suppressed). As long as the other models keep showing their solution we have a little time to let the GFS readjust its outcome. **hopefully the other models don't readjust to the GFS. Agreed man. Ensembles are still very telling, even if it is 18z runs. If there’s a dramatic shift with the ensembles, it’s a little bothersome, but I don’t foresee that. The CMC and EURO were solid at 12z. The trend as of now is our friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 18z GFS is squash city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 NW flow...be problematic if it wasn’t day 5 GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted December 23, 2017 Author Share Posted December 23, 2017 2 minutes ago, WarmNose said: 18z GFS is squash city Thank goodness. I don’t want my power going out. You can keep it if it’s not snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Cold wins over precip! Hello static electricity, dry skin and frozen boogers. Toss this....teeing up a NW trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Once again GEFS has the majority of the members with a big storm... seems the OP is all alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 15 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Yeah, a total,steamy , corny dump I think the GEFS is about to take a big steamy dump on us as well for 18z. Looks much drier and suppressed out to 120. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 2 minutes ago, snowlover91 said: Once again GEFS has the majority of the members with a big storm... seems the OP is all alone. It looks suppressed to me no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said: It looks suppressed to me no? Mean QPF is down a little but looking through individual members there’s just more of the slider solutions like the CMC and Euro. There are some cutters and completely dry members but nothing significant imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Here’s the mean QPF. Less than the previous runs though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 1 minute ago, snowlover91 said: Mean QPF is down a little but looking through individual members there’s just more of the slider solutions like the CMC and Euro. There are some cutters and completely dry members but nothing significant imo. I want to be wrong but it looks super dry comparing 120 to 12z. Like significantly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Just now, Buddy1987 said: I want to be wrong but it looks super dry comparing 120 to 12z. Like significantly. Drier in western NC but not as much of a difference in central and eastern areas. Again it’s helpful to look at individual members. I don’t see much of a difference other than less of the super amped cutters that jacked the qpf. No worries here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Until the Euro, CMC, and NAM change I won’t be buying the GFS suppression idea. They all have a similar 5H setup for the wave entering Oregon whereas the GFS has very little energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Here's a list of all the times the GFS has scored a coup on a winter storm up against the Euro/Canadian/NAM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 2 minutes ago, snowlover91 said: Until the Euro, CMC, and NAM change I won’t be buying the GFS suppression idea. They all have a similar 5H setup for the wave entering Oregon whereas the GFS has very little energy. I've considered that as well. Dare I be the first to say with this scenario--'We need to wait until the wave is on shore for proper sampling.' <my eyes just twitched> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 19 minutes ago, snowlover91 said: Drier in western NC but not as much of a difference in central and eastern areas. Again it’s helpful to look at individual members. I don’t see much of a difference other than less of the super amped cutters that jacked the qpf. No worries here. This may whiff but when comparing EPS to GEFS...looks like business as usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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