CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 1 minute ago, Jonathan said: EURO is about to be whiff city! Too funny.... I wouldn't worry about it right now. It's a strong signal. Models will waffle a bit between now and then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Out to 120, Euro continues to look weak, but it has light snow in southern NC and northern SC...ice to Macon, GA and inland coastal SC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted December 24, 2017 Author Share Posted December 24, 2017 It probably injested some bad data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 1 minute ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said: Too funny.... I wouldn't worry about it right now. It's a strong signal. Models will waffle a bit between now and then. We all know this, but Jesus. Not one single model has looked like its previous run one time since we started tracking this thing. It's frustrating. Why do we watch this garbage? Weather models shouldn't be available to the public. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Healthy icing from Augusta to Columbia to Florence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted December 24, 2017 Author Share Posted December 24, 2017 2 minutes ago, Jonathan said: We all know this, but Jesus. Not one single model has looked like its previous run one time since we started tracking this thing. It's frustrating. Why do we watch this garbage? Weather models shouldn't be available to the public. I don’t recall a time when models have ever been consistent from run to run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 That's some dry air! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 This run of the EURO keeps Ice going from the GA / AL border south of I-20 down through COLA and all of SC minus the SW coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Weak shortwaves continue feeding into the trough and it ends up being a prolonged event - a 24-27 hr winter storm with light precip for parts of central and northern SC...and a lot of NC save the far eastern areas. Prolonged icing event in central and northern SC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Just now, griteater said: Weak shortwaves continue feeding into the trough and it ends up being a prolonged event - a 24-27 hr winter storm with light precip for parts of central and northern SC...and a lot of NC save the far eastern areas. Prolonged icing event in central and northern SC Wedge icing back into northern and central GA as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco-lemonade Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 ah our old nemesis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 3 minutes ago, lilj4425 said: I don’t recall a time when models have ever been consistent from run to run. Well, the NAVGEM performed very well with the last event and the Canadian does well with CAD at this range. I am going with a blend of those two for now. I really don't care what the OP Euro or GFS has to say. However, I will give a nod to their ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Really all that has changed in my mind on the EURO from the 12Z to the 00Z tonight is the moisture is not as deep and heavy, but it's just as long and the Cold air is just as prominent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Here's the coldest ptype panel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 To me, the chances of this storm delivering in our forum have gone up tonight. We finally have a bit more of an overall consistent look at 500mb. Still many days out, but I'd say confidence increased tonight. I'd say the most likely scenario is that this amps up more as we get closer...but the key for wintry precip in our forum is that the CAD should continue to remain stout on the modeling as the system approaches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 13 minutes ago, griteater said: Here's the coldest ptype panel Temperature and Dewpoint at the same time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 I like where I am sitting at the moment. I am north of all those freezing rain maps. I can live with that, even if it is all sleet vs snow. One thing I have noticed is that the snow line keeps trending south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Canadian Ensemble Mean continues to like the idea of a healthy winter storm in our forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 QPF is going to fluctuate until we get this thing onshore. Remember, you can always find QPF here but you usually can’t buy cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 6 minutes ago, griteater said: Canadian Ensemble Mean continues to like the idea of a healthy winter storm in our forum I appreciate you including everyone or distinguishing specific locations. If you look at the qpf of the GFS, the CMC and the EURO and averaged them together, I think you still have a nasty, major icing event from the GA/AL border up through NC. Just no 2 ways about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Just saw this thread but I’m throwing out (while I am waiting for the EPS) the GEFS ensembles for my area... No way in heck I get that max run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Euro Ensemble mean was much like the op run. Wave was weaker this run compared to its last run...and it has a late blooming system much like the op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 I think it's safe to say that we will have enough cold air for a major winter storm. Now, we just have to hammer out the P-types and QPF. Climo suggests that the heart of the damming zone would receive frozen while the outer areas get the zr. How that plays out is still up for grabs at this time. I would say that by this time tomorrow night, we will see whether the trends are for a more amped up system (more zr and north) or a weak slider (more frozen and farther south). Pay attention to the NAVGEM. It is my model of choice, if I had to pick only one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 3 hours ago, griteater said: Euro Ensemble mean was much like the op run. Wave was weaker this run compared to its last run...and it has a late blooming system much like the op 6z gfs looks similar. Decent over running event with a transfer to a coastal. Probably a precip minimum in the upstate and piedmont. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Looking through the runs we are definitely moving away from stream interaction. Less ridging out west and this thing is trending flatter. Hopefully it still works out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 35 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said: 6z gfs looks similar. Decent over running event with a transfer to a coastal. Probably a precip minimum in the upstate and piedmont. 6z GFS snow totals are up from 0z. Northern NC up into VA would be true for snow totals but south of there would have mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tar Heel Snow Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 RaleighWx On Twitter: “As I said yesterday, I expect continued model oscillations with this event for a couple of days. I do like the general idea of a winter storm to impact parts of Ga/NC/SC by Thursday into Saturday. Also most likely Va. But confidence is lower this am.” we have a long way to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Typical gnashing of teeth as we try to reel in a winter storm in the SE. It's never easy. As others have indicated, it's good to see the Canadian and NAVGEM amped. The 6Z GFS was much improved, too. Here's hoping Santa brings us all a late Christmas gift! Merry Christmas to you and yours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Weird the uk and euro models are opposite. Leads me to believe the euros run is a outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted December 24, 2017 Author Share Posted December 24, 2017 29 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said: Looking through the runs we are definitely moving away from stream interaction. Less ridging out west and this thing is trending flatter. Hopefully it still works out. The Canadian??? Ehhh??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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