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lilj4425

The snow, sleet, and freezing rain oh my Dec 27-30 thread

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1 minute ago, WarmNose said:

18z nam looks like a whiff for eastern NC on the 27th

SW flow for the next s/w looks good coming out of Mexico for moisture influx on 18z.

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2 minutes ago, WarmNose said:

18z nam looks like a whiff for eastern NC on the 27th

Isn't that the first wave where it was preferred not to be strong so the 2nd would have more punch?

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5 minutes ago, lilj4425 said:

Sure is a confusing system. I just want snow. Seems like that’s impossible with this where I live. Either ice or rain. 

Huh? There is no model showing anything close to rain for GSP. Most models have mostly sleet falling, some of the more suppressed one's are showing mainly snow or a sleet/snow mix.

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WPC has spoken:

 

WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ THE SPECIFICS AND LONGER TERM RAMIFICATIONS/TRANSITIONS WITHIN THIS WINTRY PATTERN INCLUDING ICE/SNOW THREATS REMAIN A QUESTION MARK. THE WPC MEDIUM RANGE WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK AND WEATHER GRIDS SHOW A FOCUS FOR HEAVIER SNOW PROBABILITIES THROUGH MID-LATER WEEK OVER THE NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES AND TO THE LEE OF THE GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH AN EMERGING WIDESPREAD THREAT THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST. THE POTENTIAL FOR FRIGID HIGH PRESSURE AND POTENTIALLY ACCUMULATING FREEZING RAIN OVER AR, GA, AND THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH SNOW FARTHER INTO THE COLD AIR FROM THE MID-SOUTH AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE PASSAGES AND ANY POSSIBLE TROWAL/NORLUN TROUGH-LIKE FEATURES TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LOW DEVELOPMENT OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST.

 

07jSafe.jpg

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9 minutes ago, lilj4425 said:

Sure is a confusing system. I just want snow. Seems like that’s impossible with this where I live. Either ice or rain. 

I think this threat is storm or no storm. Not sure the NW trend is applicable here. We ice/snow or we're dry. Very concerned for this threat seeing the UKMET went dry and the Euro is really nothing to write home about.  Even the ensembles.  I know the CMC did well on the last event (not mby) but I like to have the UKMET and EURO ensembles honking.  

Hopefully we see some big trends the other way tonight and tomorrow. 

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1 minute ago, SnowNiner said:

I think this threat is storm or no storm. Not sure the NW trend is applicable here. We ice/snow or we're dry. Very concerned for this threat seeing the UKMET went dry and the Euro is really nothing to write home about.  Even the ensembles.  I know the CMC did well on the last event (not mby) but I like to have the UKMET and EURO ensembles honking.  

Hopefully we see some big trends the other way tonight and tomorrow. 

This is somewhat typical.... there will most likely be an up-tick in the QPF as we approach verification time. This doesn't always happen, but it is almost expected in the 24-48 hour mark. It will not be long before the storm gets into some of the the high resolution models' time frame. 

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If I am remembering correctly, the 2/2004 storm was in this same position. 

I dont think we can even approach the edge of the cliff until this thing gets onshore. 

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Just now, snowlover91 said:

German model has good qpf and we know the past few winters it has actually been solid. 

MGXUqdh.png

JhjSLMn.png

Yes it does and yes it has. It did great with last years storm. 

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2 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

If I am remembering correctly, the 2/2004 storm was in this same position. 

I dont think we can even approach the edge of the cliff until this thing gets onshore. 

Yep, and once within 72, I remember watching the mid and low.level temps gradually trend colder.

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Just now, kvegas-wx said:

German model doesnt account for ice does it?  If not, you can discount anything south of the VA border as far as accums.

It does appear to actually. It just has a strong initial thump of heavy snow, about 6-9 hours of it. 

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Gfs amplifying the N/S big time at 87. Don’t think it’s what we want to see.

edit: welp I stand corrected. 18z looks much better compared to 12z at 102.

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Chris Justus update: "Morning models indicate ice threat Thursday night and Friday is increasing. Beyond that, if the models are to be believed we would have another shot at wintry weather on News Years Eve Sunday, one week from today. Temperatures New Years Day morning could dip into the upper teens in the Upstate, single digits for the mountains."

He will be steaming live on Facebook at 5:15pm eastern today

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4 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

Gfs amplifying the N/S big time at 87. Don’t think it’s what we want to see.

At hour 96 looks real similar to the time range at 12z. Maybe a little more precip building. 

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