packbacker Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 CMC is a best case scenario but it has been ticking flatter too...but this would be a great outcome. Nice little southern vort that is separate from the NS energy and we gets a nice event...well eastern NC gets a nice event. Not good when CMC is by itself. To bad UK looks weak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 GFS Big Boom incoming on New Years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 You guys do realize that the event is for Thursday and this is only Sunday night. There are a lot of model runs yet to go before we see what will likely happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 2 minutes ago, packbacker said: CMC is a best case scenario but it has been ticking flatter too...but this would be a great outcome. Nice little southern vort that is separate from the NS energy and we gets a nice event...well eastern NC gets a nice event. Not good when CMC is by itself. To bad UK looks weak Hitting the eggnog again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Good god that thing is super Amped on New Years . Jeebus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Just now, mackerel_sky said: Hitting the eggnog again! Well first image is last nights 0z CMC image and below is tonights. Not the best changes...but looks like day 7-8 there is a chance. Need to get these inside day 3 before having sort of confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 2 minutes ago, WarmNose said: Good god that thing is super Amped on New Years . Jeebus Warmer too! Verbatim, the low is too far N! Needs to be in the gulf! NYE storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shahroz98 Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 That new years storm is giving me 33 and cold rain this far out. Good or Bad sign ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 The first storm was super amped to and now we jumping on the next amped system. This one is fading compared to what it was unless models bring it back. No reason to get excited until the first one verifies. This will be the winter that was so close but faded away in the end. Hopefully the models come back and crushes us all. If not I still wish you all a Merry Christmas!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CummingGaSnow Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 1 minute ago, shahroz98 said: That new years storm is giving me 33 and cold rain this far out. Good or Bad sign ? WAAAAY too far out to know for sure. Just know the pieces are lining up to give us winter precip sometime in the next 2 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 21 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said: Maybe? That's seems to be about all we have to chase atm!! Says the guy who seems to get at least 8 inches out of every system that comes through the SE . WNC always does better than modeled; colder temps than everyone else, always a leading finger of precipitation that drops snow there for hours before it even reaches upstate, up slope enhanced precipitation, and can even benefit from wrap around. 10 to 1 says you do better than 90% on the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CummingGaSnow Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Ok, so let me ask is the CMC good at picking up on precip trends this far out. Which is the better model for QPF at this stage in the game? I just don't wanna be letting myself down with a bad model run if it's not the model of choice for precip this far out because I know different models perform better with different variables at different ranges. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Says the guy who seems to get at least 8 inches out of every system that comes through the SE . WNC always does better than modeled; colder temps than everyone else, always a leading finger of precipitation that drops snow there for hours before it even reaches upstate, up slope enhanced precipitation, and can even benefit from wrap around. 10 to 1 says you do better than 90% on the board.Yes I do all right in a lot situations. I’m specifically talking about late this week we’ll see what we shoveling come Friday!!. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CummingGaSnow Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 2 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said: Says the guy who seems to get at least 8 inches out of every system that comes through the SE . WNC always does better than modeled; colder temps than everyone else, always a leading finger of precipitation that drops snow there for hours before it even reaches upstate, up slope enhanced precipitation, and can even benefit from wrap around. 10 to 1 says you do better than 90% on the board. It's all about perspective. Something that would let him down would have me excited as hell. Just the way it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Can we please keep this thread to the first system? It’s cluttered up and can be confusing since people are talking about 2 different storms... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 2 minutes ago, CummingGaSnow said: Ok, so let me ask is the CMC good at picking up on precip trends this far out. Which is the better model for QPF at this stage in the game? I just don't wanna be letting myself down with a bad model run if it's not the model of choice for precip this far out because I know different models perform better with different variables at different ranges. All we can do is sit tight and check out the trends going forward. I don't view any one model as the most superior at this range (Euro ain't what it used to be). As long as the models don't just evaporate the storm, via a very flat wave, the normal tendency is to see some strengthening and more model precip as we get closer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justincobbco Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Can we please keep this thread to the first system? It’s cluttered up and can be confusing since people are talking about 2 different storms... I wanted to post that...thanks!. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 There is no doubt that the southern areas want the first storm to pan out. The first storm is either happens or doesn’t happen. It’s not likely to overamp and give areas of GA/SC rain. The 2nd storm with the absence of a pronounced -NAO is pretty likely to be a rain event for SC/GA and probably most of NC outside of the mountains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Snow and freezing rain on the CMC...sleet in between Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Same trends on the GFS Ens Mean...a little south, a little colder, a little less precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco-lemonade Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 uk looks promising Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 23 minutes ago, griteater said: All we can do is sit tight and check out the trends going forward. I don't view any one model as the most superior at this range (Euro ain't what it used to be). As long as the models don't just evaporate the storm, via a very flat wave, the normal tendency is to see some strengthening and more model precip as we get closer I'll never forget last Jan event, sitting on these boards 5 days out and every model and almost everyone had written it off. Stuck the fork in it. And it was a 0z ukmet or euro run that brought the storm back to life out of nowhere. Ended up with 6 inches. Not saying it will happen again, but never write off a threat 5 days out. You where on that night when it happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 28 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: There is no doubt that the southern areas want the first storm to pan out. The first storm is either happens or doesn’t happen. It’s not likely to overamp and give areas of GA/SC rain. The 2nd storm with the absence of a pronounced -NAO is pretty likely to be a rain event for SC/GA and probably most of NC outside of the mountains Don't see much chance of the 2nd storm being anything but ice or snow for NC given the HP placement over the plains. The GFS has a 1053 HP sitting over N Dakota on Sunday w -40C temps. -NAO isn't the most important factor for storms in the south. The +PNA pattern and 500MB cutoff heading towards New England at hour 120 is pretty ideal and would likely lead to at least an ICE situation near New years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justincobbco Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 I'll never forget last Jan event, sitting on these boards 5 days out and every model and almost everyone had written it off. Stuck the fork in it. And it was a 0z ukmet or euro run that brought the storm back to life out of nowhere. Ended up with 6 inches. Not saying it will happen again, but never write off a threat 5 days out. You where on that night when it happened.Exactly! Making Winter Great Again one model at a time . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Models error. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 6 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: Models error. What does this mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 2 minutes ago, griteater said: What does this mean? he trolls grit...ignore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Euro out to 78, and there's nothing impressive looking with it. It's flatter overall. Hardly any wave to speak of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 It means they will bust cold. Models are not handling big wavelength patterns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 8 minutes ago, CaryWx said: he trolls grit...ignore I mean, I'm OK with random posts, but you've got to have some kind of coherent message that makes a thimble of sense at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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