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Holidays 2017-18 Mid-Long Range Disco


WxUSAF

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1 minute ago, Cobalt said:

It seems like either way every operational model has shown snow within 240 hours. Must just be the pattern. Either way, the GFS is garbage right now. 

Careful with quotes like that. I've seen the same quote many times over the years when in reality the garbage model is correct. Not saying that's what's happening here but we're too far out in time to discount any solution. 

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8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I'm not sure it's a bringback as much as keying on a totally different shortwave than all other guidance. Gfs is odd man out. Could be right but it's on its own right now. 

But at those time ranges, that's not unusual.   The real take away is that it too has a storm during our window prior to new years.  It you look at the Euro spaghetti plot, there are lots of variation in the timing of shortwave and which one becomes king.

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19 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

The thing that's so weird with the gfs is it isn't so much that the shortwave gets sheared/squashed. It that there is no shortwave at all and we're not talking super long leads. D3-4. That's the part I don't get. 

Wonder if this is the result of the cancellation of RAOBs over Alaska.

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GFS has switched development emphasis to the more credible energy peak at New Years, look for this depiction to get better in coming days, the first wave may make a comeback to a 3-6" event around 28th but this is where to look for your major storm -- the only thing missing from this run seems to be a compact organization that will keep taint away, even so it looks good for about 5-8" with some zr or light rain. With the depth of cold air I think this Dec 31-Jan 1 time frame will eventually morph into something more powerful like 980-985 mb off the coast. It is basically the same storm as shown on other models just with any later timing being potentially in your favor since the energy peak is around Jan 1 not any time in December. 

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12 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Wonder if this is the result of the cancellation of RAOBs over Alaska.

 

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I’ve heard A few people say that that might be having a bigger effect then what you might think.

I bet the only true way to determine the full impact of the missing balloon launches would be to run the models on a day when there are full balloon launches available, and have a parallel run with everything identical except the data from one or more launches - and see how different the resulting model output is. Then, see how it verifies compared to reality. 

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17 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

GFS has switched development emphasis to the more credible energy peak at New Years, look for this depiction to get better in coming days, the first wave may make a comeback to a 3-6" event around 28th but this is where to look for your major storm -- the only thing missing from this run seems to be a compact organization that will keep taint away, even so it looks good for about 5-8" with some zr or light rain. With the depth of cold air I think this Dec 31-Jan 1 time frame will eventually morph into something more powerful like 980-985 mb off the coast. It is basically the same storm as shown on other models just with any later timing being potentially in your favor since the energy peak is around Jan 1 not any time in December. 

Energy Peak?  can you explain that to me that's a new one for me.  Thanks up front 

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Let's simplify this. Between the 27th and the 31 there are multiple vorts ejecting off the PAC. The models have been flipping around between exactly which one to key on. The majority have centered on the 28/29 but from time to time a run spits out like this gfs run that keys on a later vort. Within the ensembles there are some like this too. That's why the snow is spread out over 60 hours on the EPS. It doesn't think it's going to snow for 60 hours like that stupid gfs run last night it's differences in timing and which vort to develop. For a while the gfs was trying to develop two. One the 28th then another the 31. The only thing becoming clear is that for the 28-31 period there is only enough space to develop one storm. There is another legit threat just after New Years but runs that develop a storm the 28th don't have one the 31st and vice Versa. But luckily about 80% of all guidance is developing one of the vorts. It's only a rare run like the 12z gfs that squashes everything. I don't buy that. But do I have any freaking idea what the real timing will be and which vort will ultimately be the one...nope. But I favor one of them doing something during the 28-31 window. The overall pattern is there it's the details that are driving people crazy run to run. I also like the threat early Jan as much as you can a day 10+ threat. I n short I have confidence in the pattern but not the details yet. 

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2 minutes ago, WhiteoutMD said:

Energy Peak?  can you explain that to me that's a new one for me.  Thanks up front 

I believe he is using Space Weather as part of his forecasting tools. Hopefully Roger can chime in. His forecast have come true in the past, I recall certain storms near the dates he has predicted.

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31 minutes ago, usedtobe said:

But at those time ranges, that's not unusual.   The real take away is that it too has a storm during our window prior to new years.  It you look at the Euro spaghetti plot, there are lots of variation in the timing of shortwave and which one becomes king.

It makes me feel good when I'm thinking the same thing you are. Makes me feel better I'm not off the reservation at least. My only big take away from the last 48 hours of runs is that something in that window want to come at us from the stj and the setup to our north with confluence and a train of arctic highs is likely to make that work for us. We're still not in range of specifics 

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2 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

Not sure I like the look of GEFS. Everything looks shunted and suppressed, similar to the OP. Someone can correct me but I am out to 108 and there is a sizeable difference in qpf production. 

I don't see it to 18z on TT. Wouldn't be surprised if the ensemble is like the OP though, since it typically does that. 

Edit: not on Weatherbell either

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3 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

http://wx.graphics/models/gefs/gefs.php

This is how I’m seeing it. Do you guys use this at all? Gosh I hope I’m wrong. 

No, you're right. 18z precip takes 3 steps back. 

Like I said, not surprised that the GEFS follows the GFS. Ensembles tend to follow the op, but not what we're looking for.

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I dint like how the gefs lost the juice to our south. Lost the stj miller a qpf pattern and looks more like a northern stream miller b qpf pattern on there. Through day 7.5 at least. Definitely not a good sign. But just one run. Im not getting too worried until I see that ok mutiple guidance. But losing the stj influence is the one way I can see this while thing going to crap. 

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Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

So...GFS all on it's own. How often has it turned out to be right when it does this?

Probably less in medium-long range than in short range. Certainly was one of the most behind in the Dec 8-9 event earlier this month. Last time I can think of it leading the way was a late March 2016 storm, where the Euro and ensembles showed a storm going inland within hr 72 of the event, and the GFS showed the storm only scraping S New England and missing the Mid-Atlantic. Like I said, that was short ranged though

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