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Holidays 2017-18 Mid-Long Range Disco


WxUSAF

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trend of less digging on the Op....700 showed it quite clearly early on. Back to 1 hitter.  Hope its a hot bat.

Thank goodness I'm strapped in....gonna be a bumpy ride to the promise land.

edit - what second storm...

We are entering the typical "time to lose the storm" so, hey maybe were right where we wanna be. lol

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The ridge out west is just too flat. Nothing will amplify with that look. Really disappointing trends overall. Even if something else comes down the line we are back to days 8,9,10+. It’s not over yet but we are now within about 4/5 days of that first wave being over the conus. 

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3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Lol- I sleep in and wake up to this....what a shred factory on the gfs. I'll hug the cmc and go on about my business. 

Get behind me bro. Lol

Euro will do something different.  I will say the Ukie last night was a red flag too. 

What a mess. I think I'll turn everything off and dial 936-1212.

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I will say this....we can always fail but that long duration "downhill slope" in the upper levels shredding everything for days is suspect. I'm not buying into that progression. Cold and suppression probably isn't going to win like that. A pac shortwave hits every couple days. One or more will find a way for someone in the east. 

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Quick thought before work. I took a look @ the 6z GEFS individuals and they are all over the place. Might sound weenie-ish, but I think it is safe to say the GFS is struggling with the upcoming pattern. It usually does when you are dealing with N stream systems. Unfortunately the models have seemingly lost that nice STJ moisture plume from last night, but it all depends what happens with the shortwaves out in the Pacific once they reach the coast. Long way to go either way. 

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12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I will say this....we can always fail but that long duration "downhill slope" in the upper levels shredding everything for days is suspect. I'm not buying into that progression. Cold and suppression probably isn't going to win like that. A pac shortwave hits every couple days. One or more will find a way for someone in the east. 

This. The trend to flatter flow works both ways. Less likelihood of big phased bomb, but also less likely that everything is squashed.

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2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

This. The trend to flatter flow works both ways. Less likelihood of big phases bomb, but also less likely that everything is squashed.

A lot of why it gets suppressed is how the GFS handles up in Canada and all the models are typically pretty bad at that.  The tendency here after so much disappointment is to believe the worst model solution.   I'd be surprised to see us strike out before all the cold is used up but I've been surprised many times.

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1 minute ago, usedtobe said:

A lot of why it gets suppressed is how the GFS handles up in Canada and all the models are typically pretty bad at that.  The tendency here after so much disappointment is to believe the worst model solution.   I'd be surprised to see us strike out before all the cold is used up but I've been surprised many times.

A voice of reason - I feel better.

I can almost see this eventually being a Mid Atlantic special maybe 

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4 minutes ago, usedtobe said:

A lot of why it gets suppressed is how the GFS handles up in Canada and all the models are typically pretty bad at that.  The tendency here after so much disappointment is to believe the worst model solution.   I'd be surprised to see us strike out before all the cold is used up but I've been surprised many times.

Ensembles are really struggling inside of 10 days right now. They seemingly support whatever the op shows. I expect the 12z gefs to be bad but that's only because the op was bad. 

I could see an easy fail with an inactive pattern and cold air. This is actually a fairly active pattern. 

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