Cobalt Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 DCA reverse heat island LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Just now, nj2va said: That’s the low forecast. Reading that as a high of 3 degrees on 1/1/18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 2 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: A high of 2 degrees? Am I reading that right?? Haha, common bud we don't live in Arctic.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 1 minute ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: Reading that as a high of 3 degrees on 1/1/18 That’s the temp forecast at 12z. Look at the z time stamps below the forecasts for the timing. The bar graph gives the forecast H/L. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Just now, Wentzadelphia said: Haha, common bud we don't live in Arctic.... And it's not February 1899 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 I have a quick question which I should really know but don't. Do models factor in snow depth when factoring in temps. Like if the GFS is right and we get 2 feet of snow did the 00z run factor that in with the temps post-storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 1 minute ago, nj2va said: That’s the temp forecast at 12z. Look at the z time stamps below the forecasts for the timing. The bar graph gives the forecast H/L. Yep. Just realized. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 1 minute ago, Wentzadelphia said: I have a quick question which I should really know but don't. Do models factor in snow depth when factoring in temps. Like if the GFS is right and we get 2 feet of snow did the 00z run factor that in with the temps post-storm? Yes they do. Snowpack and open water etc are built in. Could be one of the reasons the eps is so damn cold at long range. I've been looking at this stuff for a long time and I've never seen 5 consecutive days below freezing temps on a mean at long leads ever. Must be a ton of agreement for a combo of big cold and snowcover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 [email protected] I've got to stay up for the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 GEFS is impressive. 6" snow mean by the 12z 30th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 That'll work.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Man I hate hanging out with my neighbors to drink...and not looking at my phone the whole time I’m there. What did I miss? We have a chance for flurries or something next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Got to love el ninasSent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Just now, Scraff said: Man I hate hanging out with my neighbors to drink...and not looking at my phone the whole time I’m there. What did I miss? We have a chance for flurries or something next week? 66 hour snow event if the GFS is right. That's really all you need to know to get the whole picture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Gefs very supportive of a classic storm. Wouldn't say it supports the op becuase the mean is a classic east coast progression. Tons of agreement....and tons of precip... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Definitely an overrunning signal on the GEFS. MSLP maps show a camp with the primary into WV but looking at the precip panels suggests it supports a better transfer to the coastal for our latitude. Pretty classic look for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Just now, nj2va said: Definitely an overrunning signal on the GEFS. MSLP maps show a camp with the primary into WV but looking at the precip panels suggests it supports a better transfer to the coastal for our latitude. Pretty classic look for us. Certainly a shift towards agreeing on a tn-nc jump. Looks damn nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Gefs very supportive of a classic storm. Wouldn't say it supports the op becuase the mean is a classic east coast progression. Tons of agreement....and tons of precip... Equally classic is that it leaves NE on the short end of the stick. Our great ones always do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 GEFS individual members are pretty darn snowy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 One very interesting piece is the stream interaction and inverted trough look between the low off the coast and the lakes. Euro and gfs both did it. Strong ensemble support for the same thing now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 3 minutes ago, Cobalt said: 66 hour snow event if the GFS is right. That's really all you need to know to get the whole picture. What the!? Has that ever happened here...ever!? That’s like Tahoe pow pow. Man if Euro comes in like that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 1 minute ago, Cobalt said: GEFS individual members are pretty darn snowy Mind posting the low location panel? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 1 minute ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: Mind posting the low location panel? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Just now, Scraff said: What the!? Has that ever happened here...ever!? That’s like Tahoe pow pow. Man if Euro comes in like that... It's never happened as far as I know and that in itself is a big flag. Not that it takes much explaining why a 60+ hour storm is unlikely. Pd2 was the longest duration I've seen and there was a lull between the overunning and coastal. Gfs had no lull whatsoever. Lol. Don't remember the duration of Pd2 specifically but it was close to 48 hours I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Certainly a shift towards agreeing on a tn-nc jump. Looks damn nice. Interesting look with the low in the lakes...Euro and the OP did this too which causes the streams to interact. We usually hate a low in the lakes but with this it actually helps to enhance things for us (I think?). ETA: ha, just saw your post above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Ukie never gets the precip far enough north to hit Dca/Bwi thru 144 hrs http://wx.graphics/models/ukmet/ukmet.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 GEFS temperature mean is darn cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 1 minute ago, nj2va said: Interesting look with the low in the lakes...Euro and the OP did this too which causes the streams to interact. We usually hate a low in the lakes but with this it actually helps to enhance things for us (I think?). Lakes lows mostly piss us off because they warm the midlevels and/or cause storms to cut. This one is different. We're already plenty cold and with a blocked and strong high to the north, cutting is becoming less of a worry. That lakes low is the northern stream shortwave that interacts with the southern stream. Part of the reason we might get a precip bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 3 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Ukie never gets the precip far enough north to hit Dca/Bwi thru 144 hrs http://wx.graphics/models/ukmet/ukmet.php Look at the 500mb isobars. No doubt that precip hose is going to turn northward. Ukie extrapolated is a monster. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 5 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Ukie never gets the precip far enough north to hit Dca/Bwi thru 144 hrs http://wx.graphics/models/ukmet/ukmet.php Yeah, but check out h5 Damn you Bob Chill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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