LurkerBoy Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Dry=cold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Actually having a swing and a miss run is probably a good thing. Atleast it didn't go back to a raging cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Great spot this far out for xmas on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 8 minutes ago, LurkerBoy said: Dry=cold? You definitely have a warm spike fri/sat but GFS cools back to seasonal or below after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Was EPS all north of the op for Friday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 19 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Great spot this far out for xmas on the GFS Honestly. That probably is what we want to see right now. This will almost certainly be further west. That WAR/SER has been a pain for 4 straight winters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Was EPS all north of the op for Friday? The mean was. I’m not sold in Friday yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The mean was. I’m not sold in Friday yet. not sold where? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 That was a nice 18Z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 34 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The mean was. I’m not sold in Friday yet. Meaning rainer for many ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 21 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: not sold where? SNE. Referring to 12z gfs and euro op. You guys should be in good shape. 18z gfs was snow to some ice here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Meaning rainer for many ? No not necessarily. Just not sure it’s several inches like the 12z gfs and euro op had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: No not necessarily. Just not sure it’s several inches like the 12z gfs and euro op had. Ukie has that too. Hopefully the south solutions win cuz if it’s North it fooks much of New England Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 19, 2017 Author Share Posted December 19, 2017 FWIW EPS has a big snow signal longer range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 5 minutes ago, weathafella said: FWIW EPS has a big snow signal longer range. It's definitely still an active pattern with cold to the N, not much more you can ask for. (well I guess you could ask for an -nao) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 16 minutes ago, weathafella said: FWIW EPS has a big snow signal longer range. Gfs also near new years eve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 If we get that wave on Christmas, my thinking is it will be in an out really fast, based on how fast the flow is. Probably out before sunrise for many folks. I think slightly below normal temps and dry will be theme during daylight hours...Low confidence but just my hunch as of right now based on look of EPS and GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 24 minutes ago, jbenedet said: If we get that wave on Christmas, my thinking is it will be in an out really fast, based on how fast the flow is. Probably out before sunrise for many folks. I think slightly below normal temps and dry will be theme during daylight hours...Low confidence but just my hunch as of right now based on look of EPS and GEFS Do you have driving plans Xmas Day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 5 hours ago, dryslot said: We just had an ice event.......lol Yeah, the Northeast is a clear hot spot in the country for FZRA. Mirrors the freezing rain advisories nicely too (bigger sample size that ice storm warnings). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 46 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Mirrors the freezing rain advisories nicely too (bigger sample size that ice storm warnings). ALY looks trigger happy . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 5 minutes ago, powderfreak said: ALY looks trigger happy . BTV waits for man ice. Kind of funny how us, BOX, and OKX are all at 37 too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Avg 3.7/yr over 10 years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 5 hours ago, Isotherm said: It is the orientation of the pole-ward propagating wave break through the EPO domain that largely modulates the downstream pattern. No, it isn't as easy as -EPO = correction, but on a more micro-scale level, it is the circulation structure of the developing geo-potential height rises that are important. I've been talking about these changes being likely elsewhere for awhile too, as a function of stratospheric down-welling, and improper handling of tropical convection progression. The wave break is now progged to propagate into the western NAO region, which it ostensibly was not several days ago. This was a model error. Further, the EPO break is expanding into the PNA domain, and the northeastward expansion of the RW creates a more positively tilted trough, and consequently, confluent flow extension into Quebec. The structural changes resultant w/ a more SW-NELY flow aloft allow the baroclinic zone to remain along the coast rather than orienting S-N into the coast. So, I agree and disagree. The more micro-scale idiosyncrasies of the EPO break and its concomitant effects are absolutely the reason for the recent model alterations. Yes, the point is that you don't discount a cutter because the EPO is negative. The structure of the EPO and which domains it encompasses are all relevent. I never ruled out colder scenarios, but rather opined that if we do verify colder, then it there is more to it than the general phase of the EPO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 9 minutes ago, dryslot said: Avg 3.7/yr over 10 years I found an average of about 1 ice storm (0.50") per year for BOX in the 15 years from the early 90s to 2008. 2008 happened right as the study was wrapping up oddly enough. In reality we have significant impacts at about 1/3 inch ice, so our criteria should be closer to the national 0.25 than 0.50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: I found an average of about 1 ice storm (0.50") per year for BOX in the 15 years from the early 90s to 2008. 2008 happened right as the study was wrapping up oddly enough. In reality we have significant impacts at about 1/3 inch ice, so our criteria should be closer to the national 0.25 than 0.50. Well i think 0.10-0.25" would seem to be more the norm especially up here, With 0.50" and greater being the exception but those would have longer lasting impacts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 20 minutes ago, dryslot said: Avg 3.7/yr over 10 years Yeah, I live in a great CAD area and have seen three decent ice events in 9 years and by decent I mean .25" accretion. The entire valley, including Greenfield and Brattleboro VT rotted at 33.5F during the 2008 event while higher elevations were crippled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 6 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Yeah, I live in a great CAD area and have seen three decent ice events in 9 years and by decent I mean .25" accretion. The entire valley, including Greenfield and Brattleboro VT rotted at 33.5F during the 2008 event while higher elevations were crippled. On the coastal plain we have had our share of smaller events (0.10" or less) but that one in 1998 was catastrophic +ZR and 24°F with 1-2.00" of ice, The damage from that was visible for several years after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 There is a fair signal for Saturday at this range. Ensembles are definitely setting the table with all the ingredients necessary for a decent icing event. High PWAT, warmer than normal air mass in the Southeast coming north on an anomalous SW flow. Plus you have a building surface high supported by subtle confluence in the mean. Now both the GEFS and EPS lift that confluence out quickly, and retreating highs never do as well on the CAD, but it's something to keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 This next one does look like there could be an extended period of zr before the cold air eventually gets scoured out with the SLP going thru NY State or up the St Lawrence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Not a big fan of ice storms, but if we can get a good front end of snow, the ice, and then a snow event on Monday that would be a good outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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