ORH_wxman Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 1 minute ago, weathafella said: From James to all of CT to powderfreak to the Mainers. Even if the 23rd is crap, at least we may get a full-on winter appeal day Friday....temps in the low to mid 20s with steady snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 19, 2017 Author Share Posted December 19, 2017 Just now, WinterWolf said: Anthony may deserve a bit of credit...he made this call days ago.. For 12/25 I thought. This is 12/22. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 1 minute ago, weathafella said: For 12/25 I thought. This is 12/22. No he was talking Friday first and then Xmas....and people flipped on him. Just saying.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Storm is still going to cut...we just get some good overrunning stuff before it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 I like how that first wave is trending colder and further south... don't care if we whiff that one. Just keep putting everything as far south as possible, lol. #savechristmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Even if the 23rd is crap, at least we may get a full-on winter appeal day Friday....temps in the low to mid 20s with steady snow. That ain’t done improving with that HP up there. This is def situation to lean cold and take em down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Storm is still going to cut...we just get some good overrunning stuff before it happens. I feel like it does help lodge the cold in to the east of the mountains a bit better. The storm will still cut but it's not the 50s and 60s of the past runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Just now, powderfreak said: I like how that first wave is trending colder and further south... don't care if we whiff that one. Just keep putting everything as far south as possible, lol. #savechristmas #MakeChristmasGreatAgain With any luck, you can survive with just a brief torch up there and won't have to take out the pond skimming gear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Man, this run is pretty strung out, the low is not winding up as quick as I thought it would...it's still a lot of CAD by 18z Saturday with a weak low over PIT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Just now, ORH_wxman said: #MakeChristmasGreatAgain With any luck, you can survive with just a brief torch up there and won't have to take out the pond skimming gear. Ha yeah its going to rain, but big difference between 12 hours of 50F with rain and like 9 hours of 41F and rain. This run is about 3C colder at H85 hour by hour it looks. Thats a start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Funny how at the GTG last night, we kept pulling up those maps and saying "If I just looked at that with no other information, I would expect a big winter wx event....that Scooter high is vintage"....we kept saying it. Maybe our gut will end up correct. Yeah no sh*t...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 19, 2017 Author Share Posted December 19, 2017 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Storm is still going to cut...we just get some good overrunning stuff before it happens. CAD hangs on well into Saturday though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 That's a decent change despite sensible weather still being rain. Low at 00z run was a good deal north of Toronto and 12z has it near or south of PIT at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Just now, weathafella said: CAD hangs on well into Saturday though. Not done trending either. I’m of the strong opinion we never warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Still ZR here 18z Saturday. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 No power for Dendrite come Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Just now, powderfreak said: That's a decent change despite sensible weather still being rain. Low at 00z run was north of Toronto and 12z has it near or south of PIT at the same time. Tracks from like PIT to SYR...and this is still at 108 hours, so who knows...still time to shift...maybe we can complete the hail mary to turn this into 12/16/07, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 19, 2017 Author Share Posted December 19, 2017 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Not done trending either. I’m of the strong opinion we never warm That is certainly possible. We’ve seen this before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 I may have to give Anthony my degree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 1 minute ago, dendrite said: Still ZR here 18z Saturday. lol Yeah saw it was still below freezing at MVL/MPV back through your area and Maine at 18z. That's a big change. Warmest it gets at MVL is 39F for the whole deal. Not bad. SNE warm sectors though... 55-60F for many at 6z on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: Still ZR here 18z Saturday. lol It's prob still ZR down to around ORH with that pressure pattern...despite the Euro trying to warm it into the 40s by that point. Pretty baggy look...much different than other runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: That is certainly possible. We’ve seen this before. We white , we ice, we end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Just now, ORH_wxman said: It's prob still ZR down to around ORH with that pressure pattern...despite the Euro trying to warm it into the 40s by that point. Pretty baggy look...much different than other runs. Color me skeptical on LCI going from 19F to 49F in 18 hours with that set-up. It certainly looks to warm up that CAD region way too fast and too much around 18z Sat and 6z Sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Just now, powderfreak said: Color me skeptical on LCI going from 19F to 49F in 18 hours with that set-up. Yeah not happening. I mean, there may be a brief spike well into the 40s if the primary actually slices through NY State up through like BTV or something....but it's going to be brief in that area. For 90-95% of the event they'll prob be locked in the teens or something ridiculous...it's an arctic high, not stale polar. But we can easily adjust temps once we know how the pressure pattern looks...it will be like last Tuesday...you take model guidance and then adjust for the known biases of CAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 19, 2017 Author Share Posted December 19, 2017 Cold and snowy Christmas. Snow88 FTMFW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I may have to give Anthony my degree. Did James give it back to you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Yeah not happening. I mean, there may be a brief spike well into the 40s if the primary actually slices through NY State up through like BTV or something....but it's going to be brief in that area. For 90-95% of the event they'll prob be locked in the teens or something ridiculous...it's an arctic high, not stale polar. But we can easily adjust temps once we know how the pressure pattern looks...it will be like last Tuesday...you take model guidance and then adjust for the known biases of CAD. Why wouldn’t you adjust now. Even down to NYC you can look and see this has to be adjusted way way down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Just now, dendrite said: Did James give it back to you? I asked for it back ever since he was focused on the clipper that never was last Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Here comes the Christmas miracle, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Euro looks tasty for Christmas day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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