CT Rain Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 14 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: There is a fair signal for Saturday at this range. Ensembles are definitely setting the table with all the ingredients necessary for a decent icing event. High PWAT, warmer than normal air mass in the Southeast coming north on an anomalous SW flow. Plus you have a building surface high supported by subtle confluence in the mean. Now both the GEFS and EPS lift that confluence out quickly, and retreating highs never do as well on the CAD, but it's something to keep an eye on. We were just talking about this on NWS Chat. I think there's even a nice setup down this way for some glaze. High to the north and a subtle cold tuck behind Friday's deal. I wouldn't be surprise to see some freezing drizzle Friday evening followed by some icing first thing Saturday AM. Saturday looks pretty awful here in Death Valley. We rot at 35F in the valley until evening with off and on rain. Can't wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Just now, CT Rain said: We were just talking about this on NWS Chat. I think there's even a nice setup down this way for some glaze. High to the north and a subtle cold tuck behind Friday's deal. I wouldn't be surprise to see some freezing drizzle Friday evening followed by some icing first thing Saturday AM. Saturday looks pretty awful here in Death Valley. We rot at 35F in the valley until evening with off and on rain. Can't wait. Yeah I think if we get WAA over that front starting early it would be the ideal set up if you're looking for significant amounts of FZRA, beyond the typical light glaze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 These typically arrive sooner then modeled by a few hours so its possible for some to see an extended period of frozen precip in some form. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 1 hour ago, CT Rain said: We were just talking about this on NWS Chat. I think there's even a nice setup down this way for some glaze. High to the north and a subtle cold tuck behind Friday's deal. I wouldn't be surprise to see some freezing drizzle Friday evening followed by some icing first thing Saturday AM. Saturday looks pretty awful here in Death Valley. We rot at 35F in the valley until evening with off and on rain. Can't wait. Think you will be hitting wind more than ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Think you will be hitting wind more than ice By Saturday? Sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 CMC is a nice hit for many on Xmas Gfs is still dry but good at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 First Guess on Friday/Saturday. http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2017/12/the-grinch-stole-white-christmas.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Lol what is wrong with the CMC? NO cutter now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 4 minutes ago, Blizz said: Lol what is wrong with the CMC? NO cutter now? Every model trended east due to the push of arctic air. Models finally caught on to the MJO and epo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Gfs is pretty ugly for anyone south of MA/NH border. Friday deal misses north and we get nothing on christmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderblizzard Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 CMC hangs back the would-be cutter and turns it into a Christmas Eve snowstorm... that would be interesting for sure. If only it wasn't the CMC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 8 minutes ago, Thunderblizzard said: CMC hangs back the would-be cutter and turns it into a Christmas Eve snowstorm... that would be interesting for sure. If only it wasn't the CMC. 12z Ukie did the same thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Gfs and cmc look great for a snowstorm at the end of the month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 20, 2017 Author Share Posted December 20, 2017 GFS says happy new year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 23 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Gfs is pretty ugly for anyone south of MA/NH border. Friday deal misses north and we get nothing on christmas Don't worry, EPO and GEM are on our side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Don't worry, EPO and GEM are on our side. Seriously ? GFSs always does this with storms. You should know that and stop being an ass. Ukie has a 1013 low in PA which looks like it's about to transfer st 120 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 NAVGEM doesn't have the cutter either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Gefs looks better than the op with a low closer to the coast. Plenty of cold even for the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 8 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Seriously ? GFSs always does this with storms. You should know that and stop being an ass. Ukie has a 1013 low in PA which looks like it's about to transfer st 120 hours. The low is going over or west of New England. We will get light to perhaps sporadically moderate snowfall accumulations, maybe some inland ice, then it will melt. Wait for verification, then your dumb a$$ can tell me how mine tastes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Only way it turns into a pure snow event is if it doesn't phase, which at this range, is highly unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: The low is going over or west of New England. We will get light to perhaps sporadically moderate snowfall accumulations, maybe some inland ice, then it will melt. Wait for verification, then your dumb a$$ can tell me how mine tastes. Triggered What's your problem ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Only way it turns into a pure snow event is if it doesn't phase, which at this range, is highly unlikely. At this range ? It's very close to one. Ukie has the low transferring at 120. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 11 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Triggered What's your problem ? Explain to me again how a negative EPO will prevent a phasing low from cutting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 12 minutes ago, Snow88 said: At this range ? It's very close to one. Ukie has the low transferring at 120. The upper energy is phasing inside of hr 96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 44 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Don't worry, EPO and GEM are on our side. Yeah, I’m not optimistic. It seems like the shot of snow that we do have on Friday... has trended north some with 00z, so it’s mostly a CNE/NNE event (snow wise anyway). Its totally plausible most of SNE sees little or no snow between now through Christmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Yeah, I’m not optimistic. It seems like the shot of snow that we do have on Friday... has trended north some with 00z, so it’s mostly a CNE/NNE event (snow wise anyway). Its totally plausible most of SNE sees little or no snow between now through Christmas I think we'll end up getting front end action...esp north of the pike. THAT is where the neg EPO factors in....that high means bussiness. But it will warm up. Anthony, we'll see what happens. I'm done clogging the thread with garbage. Funny thing is, I'd love nothing more than for you to be right...good luck with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 1 hour ago, weathafella said: GFS says happy new year. Yup.....tracking 300+ hr storms is the best...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 This definitely trended to what I said a few days ago a Christmas snowstorm for nyc! Weather forecasters have 60 for Saturday no buddy that’s not happening! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 2 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said: This definitely trended to what I said a few days ago a Christmas snowstorm for nyc! Weather forecasters have 60 for Saturday no buddy that’s not happening! I promise you that what is showing up on the latest model runs is not what will happen...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 2 hours ago, ice1972 said: I promise you that what is showing up on the latest model runs is not what will happen...... It’s going to only get better and stronger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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