Winter model mehhem or mayhem nature will decide

[Go Kart Mozart]

Just back from football and dinner with the family.  ROTFLMAO at the 18z gfs.  A good lesson in why we shouldn't get worked up over anything depicted beyond five days. 

Have you heard about the computer that taught itself to play GO at a championship level in just one day?  Do we have any self-correcting models that learn with each model run?

[powderfreak]

5 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

PF, is in spin mode.

It sucks. Pure and simple.

Pulling for back to back Rainer into Quebec. 

So here's the thing, it's not spin, it's just reality.  In the East, you are trying to go on "runs", streaks.  You know it will rain or thaw or warm up above freezing at some point.  The game is to see how long a run you can put together without a thaw event. This has been a decent stretch.

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, Minenfeld! said:

First post here, been lurking for two years.

Question: have we just been incredibly spoiled the past decade or so in terms of snowfall and cold?

Welcome and post more, nobody bites well cept Pickles. I have averaged 10 inches above my climo the last ten years. Spoiled,  nah , have to remember those 11 12 15 16 years too

[A Moonlit Sky]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Welcome and post more, nobody bites well cept Pickles. I have averaged 10 inches above my climo the last ten years. Spolied,  nah , have to remember those 11 12 15 16 years too

I have PTSD from the 11-12 winter. I've always been into this stuff since I was a kid, but that winter got me really looking into weather in a more systematic way just so I could hopefully learn when the next God-awful anger-inducing winter was approaching.

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, Minenfeld! said:

I have PTSD from the 11-12 winter. I've always been into this stuff since I was a kid, but that winter got me really looking into weather in a more systematic way just so I could hopefully learn when the next God-awful anger-inducing winter was approaching.

Lol well we all have battle scars, some of us growing up on the south coast in SNE have tens of them but they all heal in a 2011 2015 minute.

[MarkO]

The cutter and timing is about as ugly as it gets. But any chance it's a 35 F rain at the lower levels in NNE? As it presently looks, I believe it will wash away the 3" of cement around these parts. But there's still a good foot up north, so if it stays in the 30's maybe it adds substance to pack more than wash it away?

 

Call me a , but I bet places north of say MHT have a white Christmas.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 hours ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Just back from football and dinner with the family.  ROTFLMAO at the 18z gfs.  A good lesson in why we shouldn't get worked up over anything depicted beyond five days. 

Have you heard about the computer that taught itself to play GO at a championship level in just one day?  Do we have any self-correcting models that learn with each model run?

[DavisStraight]

2 hours ago, Minenfeld! said:

I have PTSD from the 11-12 winter. I've always been into this stuff since I was a kid, but that winter got me really looking into weather in a more systematic way just so I could hopefully learn when the next God-awful anger-inducing winter was approaching.

Sometimes when we have a bad stretch coming up I think I was better off not knowing the outlook like when I was a kid and prayed for that blizzard to come out of nowhere. Course I'm still hoping for a blizzard to come out of nowhere this weekend no matter what the models look li me righht now.

[MJO812]

0z GFS has the front through by the 24

Way different than the 18z

[Thunderblizzard]

Santa is back on the 0z GFS

[WintersComing]

Lock it in!!


.

[MJO812]

17 minutes ago, WintersComing said:

Lock it in!!


.

Expect it to trend colder

I think the front will clear the area and many areas will see snow by xmas

[MJO812]

Gfs continues to trend colder with possible snow by Xmas .

[CoastalWx]

and the euro op is a furnace.

[moneypitmike]

18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

and the euro op is a furnace.

add cmc to that camp.

[MJO812]

22 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

and the euro op is a furnace.

Gefs says otherwise

We know how the Euro has been lately. Expect that to trend colder also. 

 

[weathafella]

In fairness, the gfs is 6Z while euro and cmc is 0z.   Gfs is probably a burp and d6 is never that good but if we’re picking Euro is superior at that time frame.

[CoastalWx]

The euro ensembles are definitely colder than the op. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

Gefs says otherwise

We know how the Euro has been lately. Expect that to trend colder also. 

 

I’m still waiting for Judahs blocking, can you ask him how much longer? 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

8 hours ago, Snow88 said:

Expect it to trend colder

I think the front will clear the area and many areas will see snow by xmas

Why , because the -EPO?

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

The euro ensembles are definitely colder than the op. 

13/14, gefs crushed the eps that season. I believe it was -epo +nao with marginal pna help... but the whole euro package was notoriously too warm in the mid to long range. 

 

3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Why , because the -EPO?

The epo cures weenie transmitted diseases. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

EPO is not the be all end all.  Devil is in the details.  Too far west with the ridge and we risk cutterosity.  Too far east and we freeze weenies.

[weathafella]

16 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

EPO is not the be all end all.  Devil is in the details.  Too far west with the ridge and we risk cutterosity.  Too far east and we freeze weenies.

Not the real story.  Cutter risk is a function of the SE ridge amplitude which is best muted by NAO.

[eyewall]

Wow people are cliff jumping before me this time  Anyway I always expect there will be thaws as PF said above. I doubt the entire winter is done for. I will be in NC for the next week so I will have to adjust to 70's on Christmas Day lol.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

20 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

EPO is not the be all end all.  Devil is in the details.  Too far west with the ridge and we risk cutterosity.  Too far east and we freeze weenies.

It’s a great ‘start’ but it doesn’t do it all. EPO is like a boiler to your hydrautic heating system. It can be functioning properly, but you can still get crappy distribution of heat. 

[OceanStWx]

18 hours ago, mahk_webstah said:

I can certainly empathize with the panic, but this is a the kind of pattern that is hard for models isn't it?  Seems to me there is still time for this to trend a little better for us, even if we still get a cutter.  Maybe the sprawling high is stronger ahead of the system, maybe the low is less wound up and we get warm advection over cold air with a high anchored to the north.  It is possible this won't be a disaster.

You're not wrong. We're forecast to be heading for a jet retraction and possibly an equatorward shift, both of which support greater than normal model uncertainty.

That's not to say the models are definitely wrong (that's not how to interpret it), it's just that our confidence in the modeled pattern should be somewhat lower than normal.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

13 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Not the real story.  Cutter risk is a function of the SE ridge amplitude which is best muted by NAO.

Ur missing something, cuz we have had no blocking and the SE ridge wasn't an issue till now 

[Ginx snewx]

Amazing difference between EPS and GEFS for sensible weather Monday and Tuesday

[Ginx snewx]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

The euro ensembles are definitely colder than the op. 

Op has me at 60 Monday, EPS 42

[weathafella]

4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Ur missing something, cuz we have had no blocking and the SE ridge wasn't an issue till now 

It’s been an issue all along.  That’s why we’ve had thaws in between.  We had a thread the needle deal last weekend but get a wound up system and it will try to cut.