Amped Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 NW Atalnta has 8", wonder how many more days this mornings commute will last? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Just now, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Let's do this! 4" is winter storm warning criteria for DC if I'm not mistaken. Upgrade to WSW for DC/Fairfax incoming? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Just now, Cobalt said: 4" is winter storm warning criteria for DC if I'm not mistaken. Upgrade to WSW for DC/Fairfax incoming? mmmm... pretty sure it's 5 inches. Not sure, doesn't matter much. Happy to get the upgrade to 4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Just now, Cobalt said: 4" is winter storm warning criteria for DC if I'm not mistaken. Upgrade to WSW for DC/Fairfax incoming? 5 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 4 minutes ago, Negnao said: Sref mean snowfall at DCA over 6 inches. I know I'm going to hear it for posting the srefs, but it's a nice jump for anyone who thinks there's any value. I think there's certainly value there. Get banding features in, keep temperatures nice and cool, and we've got a perfect December snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Just now, Cobalt said: 4" is winter storm warning criteria for DC if I'm not mistaken. Upgrade to WSW for DC/Fairfax incoming? It might still be too early imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: mmmm... pretty sure it's 5 inches. Not sure, doesn't matter much. Happy to get the upgrade to 4". yea, especially for a weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 1 minute ago, Cobalt said: Heavier snow south of DC near noon on Saturday. Mayhaps some heavy snow bands arise over DC and points NW. Blizzard of 2016 had that for NW, why can't we get some? That image is for 9am when snow is just starting to get rolling over the region. You can see embedded banding to the NW and will move up from the south. HRRR at range, so take with caution, but that's an excellent sign for the meat of the system. Most areas might reach 1-2" before the real good stuff get's going. There's going to be some busting high to the NW of I-95. This has classic strong mid-level frontogenesis written all over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 1 minute ago, Cobalt said: 4" is winter storm warning criteria for DC if I'm not mistaken. Upgrade to WSW for DC/Fairfax incoming? WSW criteria was changed to 5" a little while back... I think also it has to be greater than 50% prob of that happening for a warning to be issued Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 4 minutes ago, Cobalt said: 4" is winter storm warning criteria for DC if I'm not mistaken. Upgrade to WSW for DC/Fairfax incoming? Hmmm. What is interesting is the map that shows the range for DCA being 4-6". Maybe we get that upgrade for "Potential for 5+" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: Hmmm. What is interesting is the map that shows the range for DCA being 4-6". Maybe we get that upgrade for "Potential for +5"" Anyone live at that little yellow spot on the bay? Money location Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 1 minute ago, yoda said: WSW criteria was changed to 5" a little while back... I think also it has to be greater than 50% prob of that happening for a warning to be issued There's no compelling evidence of that imho. If the entire 0z suite tacks on 2-3 tenths then maybe but that's also assuming 10:1. Not sure it matters between advisory or warning either way. It's not a rush hour threat. I could see nws being more bullish if it was a weekday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: That image is for 9am when snow is just starting to get rolling over the region. You can see embedded banding to the NW and will move up from the south. HRRR at range, so take with caution, but that's an excellent sign for the meat of the system. Most areas might reach 1-2" before the real good stuff get's going. There's going to be some busting high to the NW of I-95. This has classic strong mid-level frontogenesis written all over it. I've been thinking this as well since the 0z runs last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 5 minutes ago, Cobalt said: I think there's certainly value there. Get banding features in, keep temperatures nice and cool, and we've got a perfect December snowfall The snowfall plumes are pretty useless IMO but mean QPF increased again to over 0.6” QPF. Tightly clustered around 0.5”+. Great consensus with the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Just remember that HRRR is worth nothing. I like seeing the consistent over performance down south. Not sure it translates to us over performing, but some storms just seem to have that pattern. And given the very long swath of snow, this storm seems like it has a good chance to be a NESIS cat 2. Maybe even cat 3 if it over performs in the NE corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 8 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: That image is for 9am when snow is just starting to get rolling over the region. You can see embedded banding to the NW and will move up from the south. HRRR at range, so take with caution, but that's an excellent sign for the meat of the system. Most areas might reach 1-2" before the real good stuff get's going. There's going to be some busting high to the NW of I-95. This has classic strong mid-level frontogenesis written all over it. Agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 13 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Post 0z panels for tomorrow around noon if you can. If we can get striped with bands we could see some 1"+/hr rates for a time. Here is the link. Latest run is 18z. Some pretty decent banding late morning to early afternoon, but the really good stuff is off the the east/NE. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/banding/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 FWIW (probably little at this point) NAM is farther NW with stronger low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Just now, StormchaserChuck said: native american technique > models See ya tomorrow man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Anyone have a good site to see VA live cams? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snjókoma Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 19 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: Not too concerned. Nice cool 850s, decent rates, low sun angle, temps low 30s, we’re good to go. Oh, the way the post dawn hours look on the short-term models I'm not too worried. Just that I would prefer to have a solid base down overnight before we rely on good rates for the snow to really start piling up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Seems like NAM is gonna bust low temperature wise. Temps already at 32 In Salisbury, and it says 33-35 degrees region-wide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Temps at 15z according to HRRR: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 fwiw, the 18z high-res RGEM is broadly in line with other guidance, but with lower precip totals than the 18z RGEM or the 18z GGEM west of 95. Yes, there appears to be an 18z GGEM (according to meteocentre). It only goes out 84 hours, so I suspect it's run for RGEM initialization and boundary conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Boy that 12k nam radar looks nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Boy that 12k nam radar looks nice. Still snowing at 6pm tomorrow... ends around 8pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 1 minute ago, yoda said: Still snowing at 6pm tomorrow Yikes, my family has tickets to go to ICE! at the National Harbor. I guess we won't need ice since it'll be pretty abundant. In that case I say let it snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Love the 3k nams onset. Gets going good right away. 18z was pretty light at onset. 0z says accum snow out of the gate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 00z NAM 12km ~0.55" QPF at DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 3 minutes ago, yoda said: Still snowing at 6pm tomorrow... ends around 8pm If the qpf Isn't at least .5, I'll burn my weenie hot dog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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