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Cary_Snow95

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018

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57 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

I'll come. That was some good food last time. January sounds good. Maybe we'll be tracking something at the same time. 

I'm in.

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45 minutes ago, Solak said:

18z GFS suppresses the 'Christmas' storm across Florida and OTS with no impact on the SE other than FL.

Yep.  Let's see if it stays there in a stronger STJ year. Cold suppression of a system would not be what I think happens very much in  a mod. el nino 

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On 11/22/2018 at 12:29 PM, NC_hailstorm said:

Pattern can produce if the Solar/QBO signal is favorable which it is.It can produce in early December just like it did in late March.

 

I'll stick with this.Solar wind is running 391.8 over the last 60 days,EEP levels still low no big geomagnetic activity.QBO at -9.67 at 50mb,better chances for lower heights/trough in N America.Anyone else notice the big rainfall totals across the country this year?Solar min also increases the cosmic rays and that increases the cloudcover on the globe.That in turn increases the rainfall where the low heights/trough set up.Cosmic rays have been hitting hard for close to a year and it's not a coincidence in my opinion.

 

 

 

60dTDeptUS.png

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32 minutes ago, NC_hailstorm said:

I'll stick with this.Solar wind is running 391.8 over the last 60 days,EEP levels still low no big geomagnetic activity.QBO at -9.67 at 50mb,better chances for lower heights/trough in N America.Anyone else notice the big rainfall totals across the country this year?Solar min also increases the cosmic rays and that increases the cloudcover on the globe.That in turn increases the rainfall where the low heights/trough set up.Cosmic rays have been hitting hard for close to a year and it's not a coincidence in my opinion.

 

 

 

60dTDeptUS.png

Great posts on the solar man. I think you and someone else had mentioned the solar output associated with the weather. I think there is more to that than a lot of people realize. 

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The Christmas system (288 hrs) looks a little better on today's 18z GFS. Surface temps for here (Smithfield) are in the low 40s.

2018121318_CON_GFS_SFC_SLP_THK_PRECIP_WI

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The Christmas system (288 hrs) looks a little better on today's 18z GFS. Surface temps for here (Smithfield) are in the low 40s.
2018121318_CON_GFS_SFC_SLP_THK_PRECIP_WINDS_288.gif&key=f8ec01be30250828732a682ba2d5edee503735f5257a7848b1dc9e16d0d69f17


Where did this map come from? Never seen this graphic before.


.

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As things currently stand, there will be some moisture in play for the SE around Christmas, thermal profile TBD but looking marginal at best with low cutting through the Lakes and lackluster HP coming down in the Plains.

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1 hour ago, ajr said:

I suppose it may be quiet here for a little while..

 

The latest 18z GFS would confirm Allan's thoughts. But the good thing is Christmas is looking cold (40s for highs 20s for low). For me that's good enough.  Lets hope it hold true. 

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2 hours ago, FallsLake said:

The latest 18z GFS would confirm Allan's thoughts. But the good thing is Christmas is looking cold (40s for highs 20s for low). For me that's good enough.  Lets hope it hold true. 

Agree Falls.  Just would like to build a fire

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4 hours ago, mackerel_sky said:

You could just warm your hands by the dumpster fire that’s looking to take place between now and end of January!

There's definitely nothing to look at for the next couple of weeks. The latest 6z GFS would have lows ~freezing with highs in the 40s/50s for Christmas Eve day (not Bad). But Christmas Day would have highs in the 50s/60s. Not horrible, but it wont feel in the season if that run verifies. 

Edit: FV3 would be a little colder with a CAD setup. Still nothing wintery but a colder Christmas Day. **still a few more days until the models start settling on an overall pattern look. 

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35 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said:

Lol... just a week before our storm showed up on the models you guys were freaking out about dec cancel and a never ending torch pattern.  

 But I think we did have better blocking in place and forecasted. We could get lucky and sneak in an event but most likely we’ll stay in this relaxed pattern for another two to three weeks. 

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If the upcoming pattern is this year’s definition of “torch,” I’m ok with it; especially if mid-January through February are rocking. Plus, many of us are already playing house money, so there’s that too. 

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