HKY1894 Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Euro is an absolute monster. 32 degree line well south.. night and day from any other model in evolution . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Here's tonight's 00z Euro run 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Awesome job Grit! Thanks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, griteater said: Here's tonight's 00z Euro run WOW! Thanks Grit! Based on Climatology, this kind of scenario would make sense for this being early December in our neck of the woods. A significant thump of snow and then a changeover to a FROZEN MESS! GULP...if this were to come to fruition, we would be looking at some SIGNIFICANT power outages. Can this be shared? Thanks again for always providing awesome information! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Here's the snow map. See the ptype map above for the places where it is all snow vs. a mix. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Awesome job Grit! Reel this sucker in from way out!!! Euro track would make a lot of SE peeps happy!Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 30 minutes ago, Rankin5150 said: Sounds like more of an overrunning look? Thanks for all the input Grit! Yes, it's very much in the overrunning camp. Need a strong high to the north to counteract the mid level warming in that scenario 14 minutes ago, Rankin5150 said: WOW! Thanks Grit! Based on Climatology, this kind of scenario would make sense for this being early December in our neck of the woods. A significant thump of snow and then a changeover to a FROZEN MESS! GULP...if this were to come to fruition, we would be looking at some SIGNIFICANT power outages. Can this be shared? Thanks again for always providing awesome information! No problem man and yes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY1894 Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Euro dropping massive amount of ZR . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 whew... 2002 on steroids, would we have enough cold air taking latent heat release into account? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 12 minutes ago, JoshM said: whew... 2002 on steroids, would we have enough cold air taking latent heat release into account? Euro had temps in the upstate around 28-29 as the heaviest ZR moved through. 32 degree line ran all the way down into Forsyth county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 4 minutes ago, WarmNose said: Euro had temps in the upstate around 28-29 as the heaviest ZR moved through. 32 degree line ran all the way down into Forsyth county Yes... I saw that, but it's still hard to believe, those amounts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 17 minutes ago, JoshM said: whew... 2002 on steroids, would we have enough cold air taking latent heat release into account? CRAZY!! I was thinking the SAME THING!!! UGH!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 For MBY, that would be like 8-10" of Snow, then .50+ of freezing rain... uhhh.. leave the ice out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 EPS Mean is slightly weaker with the wave and sfc low compared to its last run. Still plenty of precip, but the overall precip output shifted south with the totals (a good thing in my mind from a temperature standpoint). Sfc low track is similar and it's a slightly colder at the sfc. 32deg contour on the mean runs roughly from Burlington to Charlotte to Spartanburg as the bulk of the precip rolls thru. The GEFS and EPS Means tonight both moved a little south and a little colder thru our forum areas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 9 minutes ago, JoshM said: Yes... I saw that, but it's still hard to believe, those amounts. Yeah, that’s a lot of ice. The upstate had a couple barn burners back in the early 2000’s that we haven’t been able to replicate. I was always under the impression that you wanted to be somewhere in the mid to upper 20’s to maximize ice accretion. I guess everything hinges on rates since ZR is a ‘self limiting’ process. I’d take my chances 28 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 8 minutes ago, griteater said: EPS Mean is slightly weaker with the wave and sfc low compared to its last run. Still plenty of precip, but the overall precip output shifted south with the totals (a good thing in my mind from a temperature standpoint). Sfc low track is similar and it's a slightly colder at the sfc. 32deg contour on the mean runs roughly from Burlington to Charlotte to Spartanburg as the bulk of the precip rolls thru. The GEFS and EPS Means tonight both moved a little south and a little colder thru our forum areas. Grit, how does the EPS mean look for Dry Fork, VA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 8 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Grit, how does the EPS mean look for Dry Fork, VA? It's 1.00 - 1.25 liquid of mostly all snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 35 minutes ago, griteater said: EPS Mean is slightly weaker with the wave and sfc low compared to its last run. Still plenty of precip, but the overall precip output shifted south with the totals (a good thing in my mind from a temperature standpoint). Sfc low track is similar and it's a slightly colder at the sfc. 32deg contour on the mean runs roughly from Burlington to Charlotte to Spartanburg as the bulk of the precip rolls thru. The GEFS and EPS Means tonight both moved a little south and a little colder thru our forum areas. Trivial at this point grit, but I noticed the Euro Ensembles had much less snow tonight at 0z than at 12z. (The 6"+zone really shrunk a lot) Do you think this is the result of more mixing being shown, lighter precip or a weaker system altogether? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, Jonathan said: Trivial at this point grit, but I noticed the Euro Ensembles had much less snow tonight at 0z than at 12z. (The 6"+zone really shrunk a lot) Do you think this is the result of more mixing being shown, lighter precip or a weaker system altogether? It’s because the wave and sfc low were a little weaker on the mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 6z GFS MUCH IMPROVED, @ 156 stronger CAD, LP in Gulf, Snow Breaking out in NC Piedmont Looks to stay snow west of I-77 thru 168 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Thing of beauty ... We're not plowing thru a banana this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 3 minutes ago, JoshM said: 6z GFS MUCH IMPROVED, @ 156 stronger CAD, LP in Gulf, Snow Breaking out in NC Piedmont Yep, all snow event now on the GFS for western NC and Piedmont! Can't wait to see the clown maps on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 LP off Myrtle Beach at 180. Outside mtns , its ice thru NC Piedmont, Upstate SC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 1 minute ago, JoshM said: LP off Myrtle Beach at 180. Outside mtns , its ice thru NC Piedmont, Upstate SC Check your soundings..... most of that is snow for even your neck of the woods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 CAD weakens by 186, all rain outside mtns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Just now, CAD_Wedge_NC said: Check your soundings..... most of that is snow for even your neck of the woods. Oh Ok, just looking at the shades of pink. Will check em Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Ladies and gents, your clown map (if the soundings are to be believed, it might not be so clownish west of 77) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, JoshM said: Ladies and gents, your clown map (if the soundings are to be believed, it might not be so clownish west of 77) Kind of hard not to get at least a little excited looking at that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, JoshM said: Ladies and gents, your clown map ... That's pretty much just what the ensembles and the Euro have been trying to tell us for the past few days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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